Thread: Covid 19 C&P

The vaccine alone will not make us safe.


Emerging evidence suggests the first-generation vaccines currently in clinical trials have a good chance of preventing SARS-CoV-2 related illness, but they are less likely to prevent infection with the virus altogether. This means it is unlikely current vaccines will adequately suppress viral transmission.

This means there’s not yet a “silver bullet” that can return Australia and the world to pre-COVID normality. Instead, we anticipate a scenario in which vaccines, antiviral therapies and other tools that become available will help reduce COVID-associated hospitalisation and deaths.


Vaccines alone won't keep Australia safe in 2021. Here's what else we need to do (theconversation.com)

What we know about the new variant of the virus, The New York Times.

A new variant: What we know

This weekend, Britain imposed a wholesale lockdown on London and most of the country’s southeast, citing fears about a new strain of the coronavirus, which officials say is more contagious..

Countries in the European Union, the Middle East and Asia raced to bar travelers from the United Kingdom, suspending flights and cutting off trade routes. People crowded into train stations and airports, trying to flee the city before the restrictions went into effect.

But from a contagion perspective, scientists and experts say, the travel bans may be an overreaction. Here’s what we know so far.

Viral variants are not a shock. As our colleague Apoorva Mandavilli has reported, the new variant has worried scientists, but not surprised them. Researchers have recorded thousands of tiny modifications in the genetic material of the coronavirus as it has hopscotched across the world.

Natural selection tends to make viruses more contagious. As immunity and vaccinations make it harder for the coronavirus to spread, random mutations occur. Those changes can enable the virus to spread more easily or to escape detection by the body’s immune system.

We’re still learning about the mutations. Scientists estimate the variant is 50 percent to 70 percent more transmissible than the original virus. But that number is based on modeling and has not been confirmed in lab experiments, experts told Apoorva.

The vaccines should still work. Experts say it would take years, not months, for the virus to evolve enough to render the current vaccines impotent. “No one should worry that there is going to be a single catastrophic mutation that suddenly renders all immunity and antibodies useless,” said Jesse Bloom, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle. “It’s not going to be like an on-off switch.”

The travel bans might be too late. A similar version of the virus has emerged in South Africa, which shares one of the mutations seen in the British variant, according to scientists who detected it. It is possible that the variant has already spread beyond those countries.

Human behavior drives transmission. Even without the new variant, the biggest variable driving contagion is human behavior. Wherever you are in the world, it is sensible to limit your exposure to other people. And, of course, wear a mask.