Thread: EV general discussion

Originally Posted by Captain_Rightfoot

BTW I'm still waiting for the recommendation for what medium size ICE hatch back I should buy that's going to be good for 25 years.

If anyone tries a Rav4.. Toyota sold "more than 10,000" Rav4's in it's first full year of sale - 2001. There are now 5 on carsales. There are likely well less than a thousand survivors. Probably only a few hundred out of the 10,000.

all of them .... just pick one. the will need to be maintained obviously. I have lots of 25year old car. Most are cars everyone called "very unreliable" when new.

Originally Posted by JDNSW

I had my niece here for lunch today. She told me she needs to buy a new car. I responded that hers is pretty new - it is a RAV4 about twelve years old, with only about 100,000km. Mine (110) is 39 years old and coming up to 750,000km.

Her response is that today they only make cars to last about ten years. After that bits start to fall off - they are designed like that so they can sell new ones. Certainly, she has gone through a number of cars in the last twenty years - I remember her first Toyota (a Corolla) she got rid of after the steering locked due to a tooth on the rack breaking on a roundabout, but I can't recollect what else she has owned, although I seem to remember that she replaced her last car because body fittings started failing and were unobtainable, but I can't remember what it was.

That's how it happens. One thing about having this discussion about "how long does a car last" is that any and all cars can be made to last pretty much indefinitely. The problem is as they get older the general condition of the car declines, and the amount of work or potential work increases. Is it worth rebuilding the engine when you know the transmission also needs work.. and so on.

Now it's at this point that it all comes down to what motives people have. If people are particularly attracted to a car then they might justify some big repairs. If the car has value because it's in someway special then it also might justify repairs (See my earlier observations that the bulk of nissans that appear to survive are either patrols or sports cars. All the mundane ones are gone).

But in most cases in general people are realistic about their cars. If a vehicle has reached say 15 - and it needs a major repair. And the street value is maybe 4k .. and you can get 500-100 at the wreckers.. Look at the Discoveries.. the D3's and the likes. The repairs are so expensive that now then are getting down in resale they are just written off.. That's just the way forward.

Will EV's be any different? It's a known unknown but I think they will probably last at least as long as an equivalent ICE because I think their low operating costs will give them more value.

The NCA NCM cars which are made up of thousands of cells. I think they will be the most likely to suffer from battery failures long term because when one cell fails it can take down the module. Depends if there is enough demand for the aftermarket to step up.

The question I have is about how LIFPO4 packs go as they are very different internally. They don't tend to suffer catastrophic failures like other chemistries, tending to just gradually increase in internal resistance and capacity. If they just slowly loose capacity then I think the vehicles they are in will lead long lives. They have ample range now but even if that drops by 20% they will still be very useful with probably 300k+ still.

The average age of cars in Australia is 10.6 years.

The average age of the Australian vehicle fleet was approximately 10.6 years as of late 2023, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Motor Vehicle Census showing the figure at 10.6 years in the January 2021 data. Tasmania consistently has the oldest vehicles, around 13 years, while the ACT has the youngest fleet, about 9.5 years.

So even if the normal distribution is skewed there are LOTS of cars that are over 15 years old.
My daughter has a Honda Jazz which is 14 years old, and completely reliable and I recently sold my 2002.5 Disco 2 which is still on the road.
I don't think Car Sales is a good example as reliable models tend to be kept off the market. There are lots of Teslas there .
Regards PhilipA

Originally Posted by PhilipA

The average age of cars in Australia is 10.6 years.

So even if the normal distribution is skewed there are LOTS of cars that are over 15 years old.
My daughter has a Honda Jazz which is 14 years old, and completely reliable and I recently sold my 2002.5 Disco 2 which is still on the road.
I don't think Car Sales is a good example as reliable models tend to be kept off the market. There are lots of Teslas there .
Regards PhilipA

it depends on milage and area. If your someone that lives in a very wealthy area, all you will see is new or freshly restored classic cars. If you are someone that piles on 50,000kms a year onto cars ... you will always have new cars every few years. This isn't the norm though.

The difference is, with an electric throw away, even if its parked mostly un-used, only driven to church on sunday .... and only has 8,000kms on it in 10years time. It is still a useless throw away as the battery will be well past its use by date. If that was ANY .... just any type of other car, you would you would have one hell of a usable vehicle still (worse case it'll need cambelts).

I know if my mother for example doesn't drive her car for 10years. I could turn up with a drum of fresh fuel and battery and I'll be driving that car without a few hours with 100% reliability (so long as the tires aren't perished). Its also already 40years old the car .... what's another decade?

Originally Posted by PhilipA

The average age of cars in Australia is 10.6 years.

So even if the normal distribution is skewed there are LOTS of cars that are over 15 years old.
My daughter has a Honda Jazz which is 14 years old, and completely reliable and I recently sold my 2002.5 Disco 2 which is still on the road.
I don't think Car Sales is a good example as reliable models tend to be kept off the market. There are lots of Teslas there .
Regards PhilipA

Have you noticed your posts here are being moderated and approved before they show... I bet anything "pro" EV isn't getting this treatment.

Eg: if I'm logged in I have the last post.... so it "looks" like it posts.

moderated.jpg

but if I'm logged out, it doesn't exist.

moderated1.jpg

Am I really that abusive that I need my posts approved before they can be seen

I don't really care as we are extremely fortunate to have access to such an incredible forum for next to zero dollars.... but it is very strange. Why would moderators want to make the extra work for themselves when everyone is so well behaved.

Originally Posted by PhilipA

The average age of cars in Australia is 10.6 years.

So even if the normal distribution is skewed there are LOTS of cars that are over 15 years old.
My daughter has a Honda Jazz which is 14 years old, and completely reliable and I recently sold my 2002.5 Disco 2 which is still on the road.
I don't think Car Sales is a good example as reliable models tend to be kept off the market. There are lots of Teslas there .
Regards PhilipA

From data.gov.au gives all sorts. of information This page here gives all sorts of data. The second one from the top gives the number of vehicles by year, type, and numbe, issued in 2023.

I can't be bothered all the states by year, so below is the passenger vehicles by year for NSW. If you look at the last 10 years from 2022. The average number of vehicles sold per year is 254k. If you go back 25 years from there that's 1997and the number remaining on the road was 21.5k. So less than 10% and dropping rapidly!

I think it's interesting. It backs up why your niece and I have been saying. . Most cars make it through the first ten years, but after that it really starts dropping off quickly.

The way averages work a few oldies can really skew the figures. Can I be bothered calculating the median? Hmmmm...

2012	230564
2013	247774
2014	245228
2015	278392
2016	287595
2017	286823
2018	263860
2019	245450
2020	216946
2021	263928
2022	213501

Road vehicles Australia, January 2023 - Dataset - Data.gov.au

1912	3
1914	3
1921	3
1922	0
1923	49
1924	13
1925	21
1926	27
1927	54
1928	217
1929	102
1930	80
1931	40
1932	238
1933	63
1934	238
1935	68
1936	75
1937	85
1938	54
1939	75
1940	48
1941	10
1942	11
1943	4
1944	12
1945	0
1946	34
1947	56
1948	112
1949	98
1950	113
1951	123
1952	89
1953	143
1954	208
1955	297
1956	307
1957	460
1958	311
1959	409
1960	396
1961	327
1962	538
1963	741
1964	1298
1965	1200
1966	1383
1967	1402
1968	1422
1969	1614
1970	2098
1971	2237
1972	1515
1973	1509
1974	1734
1975	1357
1976	1486
1977	1414
1978	1297
1979	1097
1980	794
1981	927
1982	1149
1983	1125
1984	1806
1985	2517
1986	1886
1987	1676
1988	2576
1989	3990
1990	5361
1991	5600
1992	6669
1993	8130
1994	10575
1995	12296
1996	14764
1997	21559
1998	30930
1999	37882
2000	50596
2001	56620
2002	72507
2003	97584
2004	111655
2005	128580
2006	138855
2007	164045
2008	167809
2009	166579
2010	199176
2011	200493
2012	230564
2013	247774
2014	245228
2015	278392
2016	287595
2017	286823
2018	263860
2019	245450
2020	216946
2021	263928
2022	213501

Originally Posted by Captain_Rightfoot

From data.gov.au gives all sorts. of information This page here gives all sorts of data. The second one from the top gives the number of vehicles by year, type, and numbe, issued in 2023.

I can't be bothered all the states by year, so below is the passenger vehicles by year for NSW. If you look at the last 10 years from 2022. The average number of vehicles sold per year is 254k. If you go back 25 years from there that's 1997and the number remaining on the road was 21.5k. So less than 10% and dropping rapidly!

I think it's interesting. It backs up why your niece and I have been saying. . Most cars make it through the first ten years, but after that it really starts dropping off quickly.

The way averages work a few oldies can really skew the figures. Can I be bothered calculating the median? Hmmmm...

2012	230564
2013	247774
2014	245228
2015	278392
2016	287595
2017	286823
2018	263860
2019	245450
2020	216946
2021	263928
2022	213501

Road vehicles Australia, January 2023 - Dataset - Data.gov.au

1912	3
1914	3
1921	3
1922	0
1923	49
1924	13
1925	21
1926	27
1927	54
1928	217
1929	102
1930	80
1931	40
1932	238
1933	63
1934	238
1935	68
1936	75
1937	85
1938	54
1939	75
1940	48
1941	10
1942	11
1943	4
1944	12
1945	0
1946	34
1947	56
1948	112
1949	98
1950	113
1951	123
1952	89
1953	143
1954	208
1955	297
1956	307
1957	460
1958	311
1959	409
1960	396
1961	327
1962	538
1963	741
1964	1298
1965	1200
1966	1383
1967	1402
1968	1422
1969	1614
1970	2098
1971	2237
1972	1515
1973	1509
1974	1734
1975	1357
1976	1486
1977	1414
1978	1297
1979	1097
1980	794
1981	927
1982	1149
1983	1125
1984	1806
1985	2517
1986	1886
1987	1676
1988	2576
1989	3990
1990	5361
1991	5600
1992	6669
1993	8130
1994	10575
1995	12296
1996	14764
1997	21559
1998	30930
1999	37882
2000	50596
2001	56620
2002	72507
2003	97584
2004	111655
2005	128580
2006	138855
2007	164045
2008	167809
2009	166579
2010	199176
2011	200493
2012	230564
2013	247774
2014	245228
2015	278392
2016	287595
2017	286823
2018	263860
2019	245450
2020	216946
2021	263928
2022	213501

At the 25 year mark, a lot of the cars that are kept by people may well get moved to a club permit. Not many mind you, but I wonder if the stats includes this. I am frequently amazed at the old cars that appear out of nowhere every spring. The vast variety of old cars being kept on the roads (limited use) is quite remarkable.

Its like I said before, electric throw-aways simply take personal tranport (cars) out of the hands of poor people. They are basically throw aways at the 8 year mark. So for example, none of my kids would have cars ... hell I probably wouldn't have a car if I was forced to use an electric throw-away. You see, these are the poeple that are running these vehicles. I spend $5000 to buy a 20 year old citroen c2 for the elderst daughter, that included roadworhty and registration. the car only had 68,000kms on it from new. These cars simply will not exist. I have no doubts in the future anyone insane enough to buy an 8year old electric throw-away (out of sheer desperation) .... would be left reponsible for the gigantic cost of the safe disposal of the battery. ie: people will be dragging these things into the bush and torching them to get rid of there liability.

I see absolutely no positives of electric throw-aways as they age. Everything about them is just nuts. What are we going to do with hundreds of thousand of unsafe batteries in 10years time? Yes, I know, they will be burried everywhere and burn underground.

Originally Posted by DoubleChevron

At the 25 year mark, a lot of the cars that are kept by people may well get moved to a club permit. Not many mind you, but I wonder if the stats includes this. I am frequently amazed at the old cars that appear out of nowhere every spring. The vast variety of old cars being kept on the roads (limited use) is quite remarkable.

Its like I said before, electric throw-aways simply take personal tranport (cars) out of the hands of poor people. They are basically throw aways at the 8 year mark. So for example, none of my kids would have cars ... hell I probably wouldn't have a car if I was forced to use an electric throw-away. You see, these are the poeple that are running these vehicles. I spend $5000 to buy a 20 year old citroen c2 for the elderst daughter, that included roadworhty and registration. the car only had 68,000kms on it from new. These cars simply will not exist. I have no doubts in the future anyone insane enough to buy an 8year old electric throw-away (out of sheer desperation) .... would be left reponsible for the gigantic cost of the safe disposal of the battery. ie: people will be dragging these things into the bush and torching them to get rid of there liability.

I see absolutely no positives of electric throw-aways as they age. Everything about them is just nuts. What are we going to do with hundreds of thousand of unsafe batteries in 10years time? Yes, I know, they will be burried everywhere and burn underground.

While frankly I struggle with your position on many things.. I think we can agree that by the time vehicles are 25 years old they are usually although not always well and truly out of mainline service.

So now we've got there, if I'm just a normal person who just wants a car to do a job, why on earth would I care about whether a car is going to last 25 years?

I'm far more likely to consider other factors about it's operation and ownership.

If manufacturers thought they could sell more cars by making cars that lasted 25 years then they would. Instead they are focussed on making cars that go real well for 10 years, and then quickly descend into the abyss to encourage people to buy another one.

Just this morning I saw a lovely Disco TDv6 with lots of tasty stuff and in great condition. Motor blown. $2500! Go rage at Land Rover!