EV reality

**DoubleChevron** · 30th January 2024, 01:55 PM

Originally Posted by p38arover

I also posted this on the EV - Battery fires its all media hype? thread on the Whirlpool forum, it's likely to be deleted like my last post which they considered trolling.

The software this fire chief uses to identify how to deactivate cars is interesting. Ditto his comments on the battery pack segments in this particular vehicle being physically isolated from each other.

There will always be fires with every form of transports. I just don't like the way this is all being portrayed. I'm trying not to sound anti-ev (as even though I have no intention of owning one .... they sure are interesting). But the fire aspect really does concern me. Statistically its going to be quite rare ( but it will always happen .... just like there is almost always a tattslotto winner).

I don't really care about the fact they stop working in cold environments ... stop workng in extreme heat environments. That isn't most of the world, if you live somewhere like that, common sense should say " Don't buy and electric car ". Rather than the crazyness the is going on.

Its not that they can burn (though most likely wouldn't). Its the fact they cannot be put out, and they burn so hot, they will take out any structure they are located in.

There will be an answer for this created at some point, but lets not try to hide the issues. They need to be dealt with, not hidden.

**DoubleChevron** · 30th January 2024, 02:16 PM

Originally Posted by NavyDiver

Johns opinions are well known. The expectations that the huge new factories built or being build now for Solid state batteries bring down battery cost is a lot like Fords mass production of the Model a over a century ago?

Goodmans Sach are not quacks? Try 2025 perhaps? Electric vehicle battery prices are falling faster than expected

A breif cut "Battery pack prices are now expected to fall by an average of 11% per year from 2023 to 2030, writes Nikhil Bhandari, co-head of Goldman Sachs Research’s Asia-Pacific Natural Resources and Clean Energy Research, in the team’s report."

Its not my research of course. A Company I hold some shares in is Quantumscape. It is in the about to add a huge supply line in 2025. I might be wrong of course. John on the other hand might be

Forget those that are trying to sell you the things. The mining industry has foretasted they cannot even come close to meeting global requirements.... even if every known lithium/nickel mine in the world miraculously somehow opens and starts producing.

Supply and demand. it sets pricing. When demand far outstrips supply ... guess what happens.....

This is the sort of thing I was talking about. Why is the electric car lobby so strong ? it makes no sense.... why are they believed when what they are saying is so obviously preposterous to even the least educated person....

You know it is always possible. A lot of manufactures are cancelling there plans for electric car investment regardless of government intervention, as they aren't stupid and can see its a hopelessly money loosing venture. Not just because they cannot get costs down anywhere close the ICE vehicles .... but mainly because consumers are just not buying them. No-one buying electric cars means less demand ... which means supply may suddnely outstrip demand .... so the battery cost could come down. If only we had one of those crystal ball things

**Homestar** · 30th January 2024, 02:39 PM

Originally Posted by NavyDiver

Johns opinions are well known. The expectations that the huge new factories built or being build now for Solid state batteries bring down battery cost is a lot like Fords mass production of the Model a over a century ago?

Goodmans Sach are not quacks? Try 2025 perhaps? Electric vehicle battery prices are falling faster than expected

A breif cut "Battery pack prices are now expected to fall by an average of 11% per year from 2023 to 2030, writes Nikhil Bhandari, co-head of Goldman Sachs Research’s Asia-Pacific Natural Resources and Clean Energy Research, in the team’s report."

Its not my research of course. A Company I hold some shares in is Quantumscape. It is in the about to add a huge supply line in 2025. I might be wrong of course. John on the other hand might be

The arguments for an against what might happen to lithium battery prices kind of remind me of an old economics joke - There are 2 types of Economists - those that can't predict future global economic trends and those that don't know they can't predict future global economic trends...

I'm firmly in the 'Wait and see' camp although our recent purchases of some 125KWH batteries were dramatically cheaper than what we were quoted just 12 months ago - around 20% less overall and the OEM is saying their forecast is showing no shortages in the short term - which is code for 'We can supply until we can't'

**DoubleChevron** · 30th January 2024, 02:56 PM

Originally Posted by Homestar

The arguments for an against what might happen to lithium battery prices kind of remind me of an old economics joke - There are 2 types of Economists - those that can't predict future global economic trends and those that don't know they can't predict future global economic trends...

I'm firmly in the 'Wait and see' camp although our recent purchases of some 125KWH batteries were dramatically cheaper than what we were quoted just 12 months ago - around 20% less overall and the OEM is saying their forecast is showing no shortages in the short term - which is code for 'We can supply until we can't'

For the house? Check they aren't on the recall list ... those suckers are burning too ..........................

**NavyDiver** · 30th January 2024, 07:03 PM

Originally Posted by Homestar

The arguments for an against what might happen to lithium battery prices kind of remind me of an old economics joke - There are 2 types of Economists - those that can't predict future global economic trends and those that don't know they can't predict future global economic trends...

I'm firmly in the 'Wait and see' camp although our recent purchases of some 125KWH batteries were dramatically cheaper than what we were quoted just 12 months ago - around 20% less overall and the OEM is saying their forecast is showing no shortages in the short term - which is code for 'We can supply until we can't'

Love Economic and your thoughts are valid on them. Never just two types of economists I would like to argue

there is 'At least' thirty diverse opinions from any 3 economists on any 'one' topic

Appreciate the information from the likes of the company I mentioned are likely to be rosy unless the stuff hits the fan.

RE nickel, graphite, and spodumene (lithium).
If we believed the wind/solar is 100% of the time via a week or two grid sized battery storage I appreciate there is not enough metals in the world.

Graphite and hydrogen from my favorite WA poo farm are still in my happy zone along with a huge supply deficit of my other favorite energy type

. 1st of Feb and 8thof Feb may require a very nice bottle to celebrate.

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