Thread: Another Malaysian plane down ...

sort of ends any arguments

[ame]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5E8kDo2n6g[/ame]

Originally Posted by CraigE

Tragic and sincere thoughts go out to victims, family and friends. Also to the locals having this rained down on them.

Must be Russian backed as the Ukraine dont have any known truck mounted SAMs capable of getting to this height. They may have some shoulder mounted SAMs capable of around 10,000 feet not the 33,000 feet that MH-17 was flying at.

The sad think is the UN and the rest of the worlds governments will be to gutless to take Putin to task if the Russians are responsible. They would know very quickly as there would be multiple US, Chinese, Russian and EU satellites monitoring this area constantly. Do not want to see any war escalate but the world needs to economically cripple Russia if they are responsible, closing all in and out transport, freezing all monies and assets held outside Russia and deporting all Russian nationals. But we know this wont happen as too many high powered investors are tied up in Russia including ex govt officials from many govts. It is sad there will be some token response and then these people will be forgotten.
We do need to remember that this was an act of war against all nations as this was a legitimate civilian aircraft in supposedly safe airspace.

Considering the way this tragic event is being covered by our media, I understand why you would think that.

Fact is however, Ukraine not only has BUK SAMs with an operational ceiling of up to 25 kms (depending on model), but also the infinitely more capable S-300 SAMs (33km ceiling & 300km range). Both are radar guided and truck mounted, so Ukraine is plenty capable of bringing the plane down. Much more so than the separatists in any case, who have only been using heat seeking, shoulder fired SAMs to date (which have an operational ceiling of 3kms).

The first point of debate / investigation should be if the separatists even have a SAM system capable of reaching that height? - which is far from the forgone conclusion that is being presented on the news. Its not helped by the comments of our glorious leader, who hours after the event announced on TV that it is without a doubt the Russian backed separatists who have brought the plane down, and that Russians are the ones who have armed them and should be held responsible.

Sentiment and emotions aside, we don't objectively know what type of SAM was used to bring the plane down. We don't know where the missile came from. All we know with any level of certainty is that it is most likely a Russian made SAM, and we know where the wreckage landed. Unfortunately that is far from conclusive as to who is responsible for shooting the plane down, as all the SAM systems withing the 500km region are Russian made.

There is the "intercepted" phone conversation - where do I begin, the timing and script make it somewhat dubiousd to say the least. Ukranian forces are being ambushed by the rebels left right and centre (so they don't have the information on mass movements of separatist forces), yet they have intercepted a phonecall discusing how separatists brought down the civilian plane, and how there are bodies littered everywhere... I mean who in their right mind would be discussing this on the phone anyway, and not only that, butto be so specific, reiterating all manner of incriminating information several times, as if to make sure it is understood by the lowest common denominator...

In fact it makes such good incriminating evidence, one has to ask if its too good to be true? (Yes, it is if you ask me).

The discussion I've seen on TV, in rough chronological orderm, has been evoilving as follows:

1.) We don't know anything, but the wreckage landed on separatist held teritory
2.) We don't know anything, but if separatists were responsible that would have significant consequences...
3.) Ukraine says separatists brought the plane down...
4.) (We still don't know anything, but...) If separatists brought it down on purpose that would be a war crime and a crime against humanity, if on the other hand separatists brought it down by accident then it would still likely be a war crime, but maybe not a crime against humanity
5.) (We still don't know anything, but...) Separatists may have acquired the capability to shoot the plane down... there was a social media post that they have... oh, but its been taken down
6.) (We still don't know anything, but...) The Russians may have supplied sophisticated weaponry to separatists
7.) (We still don't know anything, but...) If Russians have supplied the weaponry, they should be held responsible...
8.) (We still don't know anything, but...) How shall we punish Putin for supplying the separatists with sophisticated weaponry
9.) (We still don't know anything, but...) If he's responsible, we should block his attendance to the G20...
and so on and so forth.

Listening to the news, I can understand why you feel upset and are ready to call for a lynch mob.

Just remember, we still don't know anything! What's being reported as fact is based on such circumstantial evidence, that I think is crime in itself. Given that public opinion has such a strong influence on the outcome of this conflict, there is a lot at stake for all involved and should be afforded an impartial investigation to establish the facts. Achieving impatiality is a very challenging task in itself, and given the stakes, I strongly fear that the true facts of the case will never come to light.

What has happened is a tragedy, and my thoughts are with the families of the innocent victims, not only Australians, but of all the people on board that plane. However I find it very upsetting to hear reports of the incident presented as a forgone conclusion, because the consequences of said premature judgement may be much worse than the initial incident.

Just my $0.02 worth anyway.

Malaysian Airlines flight MH17: Who is self-styled separatist leader Igor Strelkov?

Quote:
Self-styled pro-Russian separatist kingpin Igor Strelkov captured the attention of the world today when he appeared to claim responsibility for the downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17.

The comments by the top military commander of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic" suggested the separatists shot down the Malaysia Airlines plane by mistake, believing it was a large Ukrainian army transport plane.

On Thursday a Twitter account for the "Donetsk People's Republic" issued several posts claiming to have seized a missile system from the Ukrainian army.

"@dnrpress: self-propelled Buk surface-to-air missiles systems have been seized by the DNR from (Ukrainian) surface-to-air missile regiment A1402," the Twitter post said.

Military analysts say the Buk medium-range surface-to-air missile is the weapon most likely to have been used to shoot down MH17.
End of quote

So, going by the news it appears that we know the bastard but he have not done it alone. I hope that do not kill him to cover up the others.

Also it appears that Russia did not provided the missile to the separatists, the missile was in custody by the Ukrainian army and seized by the separatist.

What ever it is the result I hope that justice will be done.

Originally Posted by Offender90

Listening to the news, I can understand why you feel upset and are ready to call for a lynch mob.

I'll just get my pitch fork.

As Chucky has linked to, the separatists had taken areas that had installations that could take down the aircraft.
A tragedy.
I doubt airlines will be flying anywhere the area now.

Let's wait for the results of the investigation before we have us a lynchin. Lets not have the knee jerk reaction we always do.

I have just read a news article about Australias' pm and Queenslands' premier calling for the Russian Prime Minister to come forward with information about the missile incident.

Our pm and our Queensland premier both have said they don't want Putin here for the G20 summit if he can't give them the answers they want regarding Russia's input into this incident.

the Qld premier said Queenslanders won't want him here either.

I can't remember when I got asked about this....I want Putin here regardless. He is one of the worlds best leaders.

If Putin can't come , neither should Obama. They are each others equal.

Originally Posted by Offender90

Just my $0.02 worth anyway.

but we do know alot

we know that both Russian sep and Ukrainian forces have BUK systems

We know that the last aircraft shot down was Ukrainian at 6300 meters

We know that there have now been 3 aircraft shot down within a couple of klms of each other.

We know that the Russian sep forces have to Air assets, thus the Ukrainian forces have not deployed there air defense assets

I know that the general chatter in Russia. is NOT who but why, IE it was a stuff up done by 1/2 trained Russian sep forces.

But agree, our pollies jumped the gun

Originally Posted by ramblingboy42

He is one of the worlds best leaders.

At what? Dummy spits and taking his bat and ball home only to come back with a tank.

I guess it's only a matter of time before he is a recipient of the Noble Peace Prize.

He's good at leading his own personal agenda if you ask me.

Regards
Andrew

P.S The Federal Opposition Leader (B Shorten) also thinks and has said Putin should stay put.

Here's what I mean by circumstancial evidence...

Originally Posted by Chucaro

Malaysian Airlines flight MH17: Who is self-styled separatist leader Igor Strelkov?

Quote:
Self-styled pro-Russian separatist kingpin Igor Strelkov captured the attention of the world today when he appeared to claim responsibility for the downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17.

The comments by the top military commander of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic" suggested the separatists shot down the Malaysia Airlines plane by mistake, believing it was a large Ukrainian army transport plane.

I haven't seen the exact post, or its translation. Out of curiosity, have you? ... and do you know what it said? Also, do you know when it was posted in relation to the timing of the MH17 crash?

I understand that a Ukrainan Sukhoi Su-25 fighter plane was downed over separatist held territory on the same day. From what I gather (via secondary and tertiary sources), could the post (allegedly by Strelkov) that says "We warned them to stay away from our skies (or words to that effect)" be referring to downing of the fighter plane instead of the MH17?
I don't know

Secondly, for a man allegedly in charge of waging the war against Ukraine, how likely is it that he himself is posting these updates? Are they even authorised by him, or is the page just run by fans? If so, would it not be possible that they saw or heard that a large plane went down somewhere on separatist held territory and assumed they downed another Ukranian plane and boasted about it?

Thirdly, considering the weight placed upon this post by the media and its public relations value to the other side, could the account have been hacked?

My point is there are a lot of questions, and the evidence is at best circumstantial. You wouldn't be able to convict a person of a petty crime based on the level of evidence available, yet our leadership (our ELECTED representatives) are shooting their mouths of proclaiming with certainty they know what happened and who's responsible.

On Thursday a Twitter account for the "Donetsk People's Republic" issued several posts claiming to have seized a missile system from the Ukrainian army.

"@dnrpress: self-propelled Buk surface-to-air missiles systems have been seized by the DNR from (Ukrainian) surface-to-air missile regiment A1402," the Twitter post said.

They may well have captured one, but it is a complex piece of machinery, not a point and shoot system. At least 3 vehicles (and three highly skilled operators) are required to drive it to engage a target. A radar to acquire the target's position, a command vehicle to compute trajectory and assign target to launch vehicle(s) and a launch vehicle to fire the missile.



It's not a heat seeking, shoulder launched point and shoot system that's been used by the separatists in recent weeeks to bring down a handfuly of other, significantly lower flying Ukranian aircraft.

So not as likely as some would have us believe that the rebels could have brought down the plane. It is possible but is it likely?

It is possible that some of the Ukranian forces trained on the system have defected to the separatist cause, but we haven't heard any reports of that happening. It is possible that Russian soldiers operating in Ukraine could have manned the system pretending to be separatists. That's plausible and even likely, but in either of these scenarios, the operators would have known they were targeting a civilian airplane. Why would they want to bring down a civilian airplane - what do they have to gain?

So was it an accident, or was it shot down on purpose? And if by some unimaginable chance it was shot down on purpose, by whom, and to what end? None of these questions, which a reasonable thinking person with some background knowledge may want to ask, are being asked or answered.

Military analysts say the Buk medium-range surface-to-air missile is the weapon most likely to have been used to shoot down MH17.

I know that's the line that being parroted by the various news media, but what evidence is there to support that conclusion?

Jane's Defence made the statement that it was most likely either a Buk or an S-300. That was based on SAM systems in the area, and those capable of taking down a plane at that height. Both Buk and S-300 SAM systems are unfortunately more than capable. Moreover, they both travel at approximately the same speed, so would be virtually indistinguishable from one another on radar? As far as I'm aware, no fragments of the missile have been recovered from the wreckage. So why is coverage limited to the Buk system?

Well, there was a tweet that separatists took control of such a system, so that fits in much better with the narrative, making it plausible for separatists to be responsible. Second, a Buk has a shorter targeting range (40 km Vs 300km), making it more likely that is was fired from rebel held territory. This further strenthens the narrative. Mind you the narrative may be true, its just that its way too early to be able to reach that conclusion.

There's still no conclusive evedence of what was used to shoot the plane down, while more and more questions that have been completely ignored in preference to the more widely used narrative that it was the rebels, they said so themselves.


End of quote

So, going by the news it appears that we know the bastard but he have not done it alone. I hope that do not kill him to cover up the others.

Also it appears that Russia did not provided the missile to the separatists, the missile was in custody by the Ukrainian army and seized by the separatist.

What ever it is the result I hope that justice will be done.