Thread: The BOM cannot get tomorrow's weather right

Originally Posted by ramblingboy42

see post#15 , not my post but the link is there.

Yep. Thanks. Shining was sneaky adding the link after I read the post.

Weather forecasting!

My BIL is with the NOAA at Cleveland Hopkins Airport. I always tell him that he is paid by the government to lie to people! :

Les

I started this post quite " tongue in cheek" but was stung by comments that I didn't know how to read a weather map.

By the information posted since I would definitely class the first 3 days "rain" as "drizzle" with less than 4MM per day.

Seeing I always look at the "7 day forecast" I decided to look for where other posters got their probability info.
At 10PM last night I looked at the "MetEye " section and immediately picked up a pretty large inconsistency in the rainfall figures for Avoca Beach. As it was raining heavily at the time I looked and saw that the probability of rain at 11PM was 20% and it was still raining at 11pm. So much for that.

The "rain since 9AM " figure showed 16.2MM AFAIR .

I thought that we had much more rain than that and went to the Sydney radar which showed Avoca Beach in a 25-30 MM band and just bordering a 30-35MM band, so one would expect about 28-29MM.

When I looked at the MetEye , Avoca Beach again I noted that it said that data was collected from Norah Head which is over 20Km away. The weather radar rainfall data page showed Norah Head as having 15-20MM.

So I suggest it was chance that led to the other poster finding that the rainfall received in his area was the same as noted by BOM unless he has a weather station very close. So the BOM site appears to be internally inconsistent .

I believe that it is perhaps overreach by the BOM to produce data for every area when the area is quite a distance from the weather station.

As I CAN read weather maps and also deduce probability of rain from radar images, I generally use Gosford as a max temp guide of 5-6C from forecast temps as I have found this over time and empirical checking of my external temp sensor to be accurate.
Similarly , over the 8 years I have been here I have found that the probability of rain from the west at Avoca is quite different to Norah Head. Showers and storms for some reason often split west of Gosford and head either East into Broken Bay or North to you guessed it Norah Head. Probably due to the topography.
I wondered why the BOM did not use Gosford weather station as it is only about 10 Km , but now the weather station has apparently been moved from the old Agricultural station at Narara to the new Ag testing station at Mangrove Mountain ( BOM says Mangrove Mountain ) which probably makes it further away than Norah Head.
It would be good to know whether it is going to rain "tomorrow'" as my wife cancelled her golf on Saturday on the strength of the BOM advice and I held off watering my external potplants until I was forced to when the "drizzle" hardly wet the surface of the pots. Not earth shattering stuff but It is great that it finally did rain and my tank is now 3/4 full.
I feel a bit sorry for the scooter rider I saw on Avoca Drive in the pouring rain on Sunday and the woman running drenched along the road, as I guess they had concluded that the promised rain would never come.
Regards Philip A

Phillip A , I think you've got to the point where you need to be discussing your meteorological questions with the Bureau of Meteorology itself or with a Meteorologist.

You don't want to accept any information sourced by Aulro members even though it's straight from BOM websites.

I choose to retire from this thread......now.

Rambling boy , its not that serious! LOL
I have discussed with the BOM in the past as I posted and I was given a nonsensical answer.
Why bother ?
BTW today was nothing like as forecast yesterday either . Morning showers 40% possibility of rain for Gosford. Not a cloud in the sky after about 10AM and glorious sunshine.

My wife had a great game of golf despite fears of being caught in a shower.

Don't you ever notice when the forecasts are very wrong?

Regards Philip A

Originally Posted by PhilipA

Don't you ever notice when the forecasts are very wrong?

When Richard Stubbs asked Ward Rooney why they got the weather so wrong, Ward replied "We get it 20% right 80% of the time" (or was that 80% right 20% of the time).

Originally Posted by PhilipA

BTW today was nothing like as forecast yesterday either . Morning showers 40% possibility of rain for Gosford. Not a cloud in the sky after about 10AM and glorious sunshine.

My wife had a great game of golf despite fears of being caught in a shower.

Doesn't a 40% chance of a bit of rain mean a 60% chance of missing out?

Originally Posted by shining

The difference to me is duration and BOM says showers last up to 30 minutes. Anything longer I would call "rain".

I will print this out. I get in trouble in the morning if a "Shower" lasts longer than a "Coffee".