Threads that go off topic - here and other forums.

So, here's something that bakes my noodle when I think about it... When you go to a service station and fill up, the nozzle clicks off when the tank is full. You theroretically have a 1 in 100 chance of it clicking off right on the exact dollar value (XX.00) - so, based on the fact I fill my work car at least twice a week and have done for some 15 years like this - wouldn't you think that in that time - statistically - I should have seen a pump click off EXACTLY ON A DOLLAR VALUE around 15 times? Well, it has NEVER HAPPENED to me.... Does that mean that I could see that the next 15 times I fill up? I suppose, but is there something else in play here that I'm not getting....

Do I need to go and stick a lotto ticket on.....

Hmmmm......

Back to normal programming.

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Originally Posted by bacicat

So, here's something that bakes my noodle when I think about it... When you go to a service station and fill up, the nozzle clicks off when the tank is full. You theroretically have a 1 in 100 chance of it clicking off right on the exact dollar value (XX.00) - so, based on the fact I fill my work car at least twice a week and have done for some 15 years like this - wouldn't you think that in that time - statistically - I should have seen a pump click off EXACTLY ON A DOLLAR VALUE around 15 times? Well, it has NEVER HAPPENED to me.... Does that mean that I could see that the next 15 times I fill up? I suppose, but is there something else in play here that I'm not getting....

Do I need to go and stick a lotto ticket on.....

Hmmmm......


Back to normal programming.

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You forgot the law of big numbers.
The first time, it is a 1 in 100 chance. Because your number didn't come up, the next time it is a 1 in 200 chance because you've doubled your sample set. The next it is a 1 in 300. The more times you fill, the rarer the event becomes.

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Originally Posted by Mick_Marsh

You forgot the law of big numbers.
The first time, it is a 1 in 100 chance. Because your number didn't come up, the next time it is a 1 in 200 chance because you've doubled your sample set. The next it is a 1 in 300. The more times you fill, the rarer the event becomes.

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Are you talking about the fuel pump or the Lotto ticket?

Each Lotto game has a finite set of possible winning numbers so you have exactly the same probability of a win (or a loss) each time you play. If you play exactly the same numbers in every game, and the probability of those numbers coming up in any game remains constant, then logic tells us that you have an increasing chance of those numbers coming up each time, but you may have to play for several million weeks. :o

BTW its probably a similar chance of winning with any random set of numbers in each game.

I always squeeze in another 1/2 litre or less to get it to an even dollar value. It's a long wait at the pump with two tanks. PULP doesn't come in high flow nozzles like Diesel. Try filling 180 litres.

If I'm paying cash I try to stop the pump at +2 cents because of rounding, if paying by card it makes no difference because rounding doesn't apply.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mick_Marsh

You forgot the law of big numbers.
The first time, it is a 1 in 100 chance. Because your number didn't come up, the next time it is a 1 in 200 chance because you've doubled your sample set. The next it is a 1 in 300. The more times you fill, the rarer the event becomes.

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Hmmm, I don't see it that way (but I'm not saying you're wrong...;)). If that were the case then wouldn't every number between 1 and 100 become rarer than the last time - apart from the number that comes up? You have to get one number between 0 and 99 come up every fill, so I don't see the odds of each fill changing, but the chance of a specific number I haven't had before coming up increases....

Like if you flip a coin, if you want heads and a tail comes up, that doesn't mean a tail will be less likely the next toss, just the opposite.

I could see your calculation working if I thought I should get 00 in consecutive fills.

.... Told you it baked my noodle... :D

Off to google some probability calculations...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bacicat

Hmmm, I don't see it that way (but I'm not saying you're wrong...;)). If that were the case then wouldn't every number between 1 and 100 become rarer than the last time - apart from the number that comes up? You have to get one number between 0 and 99 come up every fill, so I don't see the odds of each fill changing, but the chance of a specific number I haven't had before coming up increases....

Like if you flip a coin, if you want heads and a tail comes up, that doesn't mean a tail will be less likely the next toss, just the opposite.

I could see your calculation working if I thought I should get 00 in consecutive fills.

.... Told you it baked my noodle... :D

Off to google some probability calculations...

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Can I have your coin when you finish flipping it?

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Originally Posted by debruiser

Can I have your coin when you finish flipping it?

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If it's got the Queen's head on it, it's mine. I lost it a while ago. :(

I would prefer a 1930 Penny.

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Originally Posted by V8Ian

If it's got the Queen's head on it, it's mine. I lost it a while ago. :(

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I found it
https://www.aulro.com/afvb/

You can pick it up from me on the weekend.