Big storm and no power in SA

**Tins** · 19th June 2017, 11:25 AM

Food for thought:

Why Wind Power Is Not Equal To Coal Fired Power | PA Pundits - International

Anton posts frequently and interestingly at jonova.com

**bee utey** · 19th June 2017, 12:47 PM

Wind "plants" vs coal plants, way to muddy the waters. No, they're wind farms, with all the intermittency implied. Apples and oranges. BTW no-one in the coal industry understands exponential functions, so they crave straight lines on a graph. Battery costs are still dropping and volumes rising rapidly, their market dominance is assured unless something monumental happens to the economy.

batt cost.jpg

When will renewables plus storage be cheaper than coal in 99% of cases? Not too long now. They've already become cheaper than the grid for supplying remote towns and farms.

**Mick_Marsh** · 19th June 2017, 01:23 PM

Originally Posted by bee utey

Wind "plants" vs coal plants, way to muddy the waters. No, they're wind farms, with all the intermittency implied. Apples and oranges. BTW no-one in the coal industry understands exponential functions, so they crave straight lines on a graph. Battery costs are still dropping and volumes rising rapidly, their market dominance is assured unless something monumental happens to the economy.

batt cost.jpg

When will renewables plus storage be cheaper than coal in 99% of cases? Not too long now. They've already become cheaper than the grid for supplying remote towns and farms.

I average 15kwh per day. We average 3 hours of useable sunlight per day mid winter ( I got that from a solar panel installer ). We can have a period of three days without power generation on solar panels.
So, I would require 45kWh of batteries ~$15,000. Cubicles with inverters, 10kWh units are about $10,000 each. These batteries would have a service life of about ten years.
I would have to have a 5kW solar system at about $5,000 (with government rebates.) $15,000 ( true price ). Solar panels have a service life of 20 years.

So, solar energy will cost $70,000 for twenty years. $3,500 py. I pay less than $2,000 py for my electricity.

Electricity prices have to raise a lot more before I go solar.

**NavyDiver** · 19th June 2017, 01:35 PM

Originally Posted by Mick_Marsh

I average 15kwh per day. We average 3 hours of useable sunlight per day mid winter ( I got that from a solar panel installer ). We can have a period of three days without power generation on solar panels.
So, I would require 45kWh of batteries ~$15,000. Cubicles with inverters, 10kWh units are about $10,000 each. These batteries would have a service life of about ten years.
I would have to have a 5kW solar system at about $5,000 (with government rebates.) $15,000 ( true price ). Solar panels have a service life of 20 years.

So, solar energy will cost $70,000 for twenty years. $3,500 py. I pay less than $2,000 py for my electricity.

Electricity prices have to raise a lot more before I go solar.

Each to our sunshine perhaps Mick. in Melbourne my 5.2 pv systems ( one at work and one at home) are getting well over 15 to 30 khw now in winter at both sites. With the AGL, Origin and others cranking up prices by 18% in SA and NSW as well I wonder when we are next!

22.1 today

I use every bit for myself at work. This is half the sumer results of course and I bet NSW QLD, WA people would kick my results to xmas. Not saying Solar is perfect in our very cool Western Districts. Your area seems Wind Wind and Wind which after the portland marathon 100kmph ish head winds last year I burned into my brain why wind power is strong

EnergyAustralia follows AGL by announcing electricity price hikes across the country - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

**Eevo** · 19th June 2017, 02:24 PM

ive got a 5kw system.

6.5Ah today. thanks trees.

**bee utey** · 19th June 2017, 05:53 PM

Originally Posted by Mick_Marsh

I average 15kwh per day. We average 3 hours of useable sunlight per day mid winter ( I got that from a solar panel installer ). We can have a period of three days without power generation on solar panels.
So, I would require 45kWh of batteries ~$15,000. Cubicles with inverters, 10kWh units are about $10,000 each. These batteries would have a service life of about ten years.
I would have to have a 5kW solar system at about $5,000 (with government rebates.) $15,000 ( true price ). Solar panels have a service life of 20 years.

So, solar energy will cost $70,000 for twenty years. $3,500 py. I pay less than $2,000 py for my electricity.

Electricity prices have to raise a lot more before I go solar.

You'll note of course that I linked a graph of large scale battery storage prices, not domestic batteries. First, grid based storage will make sense in local areas where connected users can share available energy, i.e. not everyone will be welding in the back shed all at the same time come the middle of winter so a smaller storage amount per user will suffice. And if not enough energy is stored a diesel genny parked at the local substation will annoy less neighbours than every man and dog doing their own backup. Just imagine how many small towns would have stayed lit if their substation had just disconnected from the big grid when it crashed and looked after itself for a while.

**Tins** · 19th June 2017, 06:54 PM

I wonder where, in this utopia people seem to have planned for us, is the 240V AC, 50Hz totally stable synchronous grid that is required to run every medical system, every safety system such as ATC, all the traffic controls, all the HVAC systems that are MANDATORY in every high rise, every computer system regardless of how vital or banal, all the railway systems, all the public transport systems such as ticketing, lighting in tunnels, escalators, elevators ( lifts to you and me ), every communication system, including telephony, the internet, the public broadcasters, the commercial broadcasters, your TV, your home PC, personal medical alerts, WiFi, cloud services, mobile telephones, and the list goes on, going to come from. It cannot come from wind, which is inherently asynchronous. Same with solar. Same with gensets, to a lesser degree. In fact, the renewable component in SA was incapable of supplying SA with ANYTHING without reconnecting to the synchronous grid that was being supplied from Victoria before the interconnector tripped. To say anything else is green dreaming. It is in fact unlawful for the wind plants ( changing the name is simple pedantry ) to attempt to reconnect until the grid is stabilised, something that is routinely achieved by having thermal plants turning huge generators at a precise 3000 RPM. Grid stability relies on generators like these, and cannot rely on highly subsidised intermittents, no matter how many people cross their fingers.

I don't care if people want to live in the third world, but I'd prefer them to move there, rather than try and bring it here.

Here I go, muddying the waters again.

**Mick_Marsh** · 19th June 2017, 09:47 PM

Looks as is SA's power problems will be solved soon. I hear they're considering anchoring a Turkish ship mounted fossil fuel burning power station in Outer Harbour.

**Tins** · 19th June 2017, 09:54 PM

Originally Posted by Mick_Marsh

Looks as is SA's power problems will be solved soon. I hear they're considering anchoring a Turkish ship mounted fossil fuel burning power station in Outer Harbour.

Heard that as well, Mick. IMO they'd be better off negotiating with the USN for a decommissioned aircraft carrier. SA has the uranium to power it, and by many accounts the carrier's hospital works. Costs less as well.

**Tins** · 19th June 2017, 10:44 PM

I want to say a lot, but I have cut and pasted this, because it says most of what I wanted to say, only better.

Wind costs $92 per MWh according to green commentators. The claim that it is “cheap” is because it is subsidised, currently at about $80 per MWh through the certificates issued (free) by the Federal Government, which the electricity retailers have to buy (and pass on the cost to their customers).
The cost of wind is made up of Capital cost (to build the things) and operating cost (maintenance, payment to land holders, local authorities, propaganda to schools etc.). The latter is about $24 per MWh.
In operation wind electricity has priority, i.e. the grid wholesalers HAVE to buy it regardless when it is available. That means conventional producers e.g. coal fired lose sales but have to keep operating to be ready to provide backup when the wind drops, so their costs are about the same but their income is less. So they increase their sales price to stay in business, so the base or wholesale price goes up e.g. from $40 per MWh to $60 or more, meaning that wind makes more for their sales. So at the present (roughly) $100 a MWh the wind farm operators are getting around $180 ( of which $24 goes to operating costs, $68 pays for the building cost and $88 is profit). Do you wonder why there is enthusiasm for wind and other renewables.
As to the costs of intermittency and backup they are loaded onto the conventional generation methods. And as the amount of renewables increases those costs become loaded onto less conventional generation, so it becomes more expensive again. That is why the coal fired station in SA shut down.
If renewables had to pay the cost of backup when they stopped generating, or if the subsidies were cancelled then most of them would go out of business. Under the current setup they are very profitable

Basically we have a 3 layer system.
At the base are the electricity generators, coal, gas, hydro and renewables. Their output is sold at the base or wholesale rate (or more correctly rates because various State governments have done special deals with large users.
Then there are the various GRID authorities who maintain the transmission lines, transformers and other gear necessary to get the electricity to the end users. They are expected, indeed required by law, to maintain a steady supply at the right frequency, voltage and amperage. There is an overriding controller the AEMO which looks after the flow between States.
Then there are the Retailers who supply you with the bill. Mostly they merely collect the meter readings from the local Grid authority. Their major importance is buying the Large scale Generation Certificates from the Wind and Solar producers, as required by the Commonwealth Govt. (under the RET legislation) which issues them free to the producers. The cost of these is added onto your bill. (There is one minor quibble in that retailers who don’t buy sufficient LGCs have to pay a fine of $65 per MWh. You are probably wondering why any retailer would bother buying a LGC then, but the LGC’s are deductible as a business expense whereas the fines are not, so not much difference, but if the price of LGCs goes up to near its top limit $92 then it may be cheaper to pay the fines, as several retailers did earlier this year.) The LGCs are traded and there are forward trades available to 2020.
In the old days all these functions were carried out by the various State electricity Departments. When it was decided that the States could sell off their electricity businesses the various functions were split up to “encourage competition”.
The point I wanted to make is that all these sectors can charge you not only the costs involved but a profit as well. So if the basic price is forced up by renewables disrupting the conventional producers, those conventional produces might work on a percentage profit and charge a bit extra e.g if was costing them $35 to produce they were selling at $40, and their cost to produce was forced up to $52.5 they would like to charge $60.
The Grid supplier also wants his bit of profit. So if they was getting $50 at the low price which included $5 profit, there would be a feeling that they can charge more and stick a bit say $7 profit on top. This is where the Gold Plating of the System claim by politicians anxious to shift the blame comes in. Gillard allowed the Grid people to reclaim the expense of upgrading the system along with a substantial incentive (profit). The upgrading was necessary mainly to allow renewables suppliers to set up at the back of Woop Woop and be connected, as well as making up for some neglect in the days of State control where the State Treasuries wanted dividends but the Government didn’t want the voters upset by rising electricity bills. That latter worry no longer applies as the Governments hink that they can now blame rising bills on some one else.
Then the Retailers will want a set percentage of the money the customer send them, so the old $90 cost has risen to, say $127, and they were charging $180, this now becomes $254. (For kWh divide by 10 and call it cents e.g. instead of the old 18¢ you now get to pay 25.4¢.)
All these sums are just for illustration purposes, and are probably incorrect, but you will see how your bill shoots up. All based on the assumption so popular in Canberra that the ordinary serf has lots of money to spend on their schemes.

Source is available on request.

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