JLR Survey 50% of Australian Millennials want Electric over ICE

Millennials won’t need either - they aren’t really even interested in getting their drivers licence .

Flow on affects will be , motor vehicle taxes ( fuel excise ) , insurance , accessories add ons - paint protection and the like .

I would buy an electric car though .

Except at present the range issue bugs me , but a Camry Hybrid would tempt - can tow a little bit , not my caravan or camper ....

So , do I stick with my Carbon Neutral Valiant @ 50 yrs old . It owes the planet nothing , just need ground up dinosaurs to run and lubricate .

Any Hoo , I’m off to ride my E-mtb in the Wombat Forest !

whats an mtb?

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Originally Posted by ramblingboy42

whats an mtb?

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It's a species of bicycle....

I’m looking forward to owning an EV, but I’d prefer a diesel hybrid if possible. Hopefully that’s what new Defender might be?

EV’s will become the norm more quickly than we can imagine.

I would like an EV - but I have no confidence that I will be able to afford one that is suitable in my remaining years as a driver.

While I expect EVs to gradually become more popular, I think the estimates of "a few years" to become a serious sales competitor are wildly optimistic. Something like twenty years is more like it, unless mandated for political reasons, which seems unlikely.

The technical issues of producing viable EVs seem to have been solved, but there remains the really major issue - cost. The problem they have here is that they are competing with ICE cars which not only have 120 years of research behind them, but many decades of experience that has built up detailed knowledge of how to build them. And the detailed knowledge of how to build cars is why cars today are so much cheaper in real terms than they were in the past.

While some of the parts of the EV are the same or similar to those in a conventional car, the package is sufficiently different that we can expect quite some time before there is a comparable body of knowledge.

This is the reason existing car manufacturers have been reluctant to build EVs - they know from horrible experience that major design changes are very expensive, not just in up front expenditure, but in the often unpredictable disruption to their manufacturing.

And the same sort of issue applies all down the line to selling and maintaining them.

It is for these reasons that new companies (such as Tesla) stand a good chance of being successful. Although they face the same challenges, they are not handicapped by having to fit in with an existing manufacturing system - but they have to put up the capital now to manufacture, while the existing manufacture can use at least some of the infrastructure that has already been written down.

For these reasons I do not expect to see affordable EVs any time soon, and until they are affordable, they are not going to be bought in significant numbers, no matter how little they cost to run!

Battery costs are coming down rapidly as manufacturing increases. Servos will either install more EV chargers or go broke. Most EVscwill be charged at home anyway, using solar stored in batteries and drawn down at night. The cars battery pack, such as the new Nissan Leaf's 40kw pack, will combine with a typical 6 kW house battery. Once the car is charged, it will help to power the house at night.

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Originally Posted by JDNSW

I would like an EV - but I have no confidence that I will be able to afford one that is suitable in my remaining years as a driver.

While I expect EVs to gradually become more popular, I think the estimates of "a few years" to become a serious sales competitor are wildly optimistic. Something like twenty years is more like it, unless mandated for political reasons, which seems unlikely.

The technical issues of producing viable EVs seem to have been solved, but there remains the really major issue - cost. The problem they have here is that they are competing with ICE cars which not only have 120 years of research behind them, but many decades of experience that has built up detailed knowledge of how to build them. And the detailed knowledge of how to build cars is why cars today are so much cheaper in real terms than they were in the past.

While some of the parts of the EV are the same or similar to those in a conventional car, the package is sufficiently different that we can expect quite some time before there is a comparable body of knowledge.

This is the reason existing car manufacturers have been reluctant to build EVs - they know from horrible experience that major design changes are very expensive, not just in up front expenditure, but in the often unpredictable disruption to their manufacturing.

And the same sort of issue applies all down the line to selling and maintaining them.

It is for these reasons that new companies (such as Tesla) stand a good chance of being successful. Although they face the same challenges, they are not handicapped by having to fit in with an existing manufacturing system - but they have to put up the capital now to manufacture, while the existing manufacture can use at least some of the infrastructure that has already been written down.

For these reasons I do not expect to see affordable EVs any time soon, and until they are affordable, they are not going to be bought in significant numbers, no matter how little they cost to run!

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All good thinking JD, but I reckon it will happen faster than that.

JLR have stated that all vehicles will be EV or hybrid after 2020. Jaguar Land Rover commits to all vehicles being electric or hybrid from 2020 | The Independent

Toyota are also about to release many more hybrid models. Etc...

The hybrid EV-ICE coss-over makes real sense now. Full EV will take a bit longer, but tech take up with the next generations is second nature now.

Us old fogeys just need to get out of the way! 😊

But I do agree affordability may be an issue, especially for full-size 4x4’s (not that this is limited to EV’s!). ...this is one reason I’m holding onto my Puma Defender instead of cashing in. I paid under $50K new and saw it as a long term investment. It might be worth $60K now?, but I doubt the next Defender will be priced under $75K.

Hi,
Looking at vehicle costs vs an average yearly wage seems to put the cheapest EV, Nissan Leaf at around $50k today, about the same price as a 1960's Mini or VW Beetle at £1k costing again about a year's wage.
So cars today are really quite cheap by comparison.
Cheers

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Originally Posted by austastar

Hi,
Looking at vehicle costs vs an average yearly wage seems to put the cheapest EV, Nissan Leaf at around $50k today, about the same price as a 1960's Mini or VW Beetle at £1k costing again about a year's wage.
So cars today are really quite cheap by comparison.
Cheers

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Would be interesting to compare all other basic living costs in Australia with 1960’s.

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Toyota are also about to release many more hybrid models. Etc..

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.

But the question is "Will they sell?" eg

Prius have been an abject failure in Australia.

At the end of the day it will be sales that determine their success or failure.

Inner City Virtue Signalers (ICVS) are only about 5-10% of the population so once every Inner City Virtue Signaler (ICVS) has one which is unlikely Millennials will be next. So if you call a Millennial someone who is 18 or less right now, how long will it be before they can afford to buy a minimum 50K car and that is for the most basic thing. ( how is that ? probably more accurate than the colour anyway)

Considering that the most popular car in Australia right now is a Hilux ute, how many Hilux ute buyers will buy EVs?
If it can tow 3000Kg maybe , but from what I have seen so far very few EVs can tow much at all and of course for how far?.
I think Hybrids are far more likely to succeed in sales volume in Australia , and most manufacturers seem to be hedging their bets with hybrids rather than only EVs. Eg the new Audi A8 which Jeremy Clarkson just roundly condemned for its non linear driving experience. (Weekend Australian)
Regards Philip A
ICVS probably more accurate than colour anyway