Thread: JLR Survey 50% of Australian Millennials want Electric over ICE

whats an mtb?

Originally Posted by ramblingboy42

whats an mtb?

It's a species of bicycle....

I’m looking forward to owning an EV, but I’d prefer a diesel hybrid if possible. Hopefully that’s what new Defender might be?

EV’s will become the norm more quickly than we can imagine.

I would like an EV - but I have no confidence that I will be able to afford one that is suitable in my remaining years as a driver.

While I expect EVs to gradually become more popular, I think the estimates of "a few years" to become a serious sales competitor are wildly optimistic. Something like twenty years is more like it, unless mandated for political reasons, which seems unlikely.

The technical issues of producing viable EVs seem to have been solved, but there remains the really major issue - cost. The problem they have here is that they are competing with ICE cars which not only have 120 years of research behind them, but many decades of experience that has built up detailed knowledge of how to build them. And the detailed knowledge of how to build cars is why cars today are so much cheaper in real terms than they were in the past.

While some of the parts of the EV are the same or similar to those in a conventional car, the package is sufficiently different that we can expect quite some time before there is a comparable body of knowledge.

This is the reason existing car manufacturers have been reluctant to build EVs - they know from horrible experience that major design changes are very expensive, not just in up front expenditure, but in the often unpredictable disruption to their manufacturing.

And the same sort of issue applies all down the line to selling and maintaining them.

It is for these reasons that new companies (such as Tesla) stand a good chance of being successful. Although they face the same challenges, they are not handicapped by having to fit in with an existing manufacturing system - but they have to put up the capital now to manufacture, while the existing manufacture can use at least some of the infrastructure that has already been written down.

For these reasons I do not expect to see affordable EVs any time soon, and until they are affordable, they are not going to be bought in significant numbers, no matter how little they cost to run!

Battery costs are coming down rapidly as manufacturing increases. Servos will either install more EV chargers or go broke. Most EVscwill be charged at home anyway, using solar stored in batteries and drawn down at night. The cars battery pack, such as the new Nissan Leaf's 40kw pack, will combine with a typical 6 kW house battery. Once the car is charged, it will help to power the house at night.

Originally Posted by JDNSW

I would like an EV - but I have no confidence that I will be able to afford one that is suitable in my remaining years as a driver.

While I expect EVs to gradually become more popular, I think the estimates of "a few years" to become a serious sales competitor are wildly optimistic. Something like twenty years is more like it, unless mandated for political reasons, which seems unlikely.

The technical issues of producing viable EVs seem to have been solved, but there remains the really major issue - cost. The problem they have here is that they are competing with ICE cars which not only have 120 years of research behind them, but many decades of experience that has built up detailed knowledge of how to build them. And the detailed knowledge of how to build cars is why cars today are so much cheaper in real terms than they were in the past.

While some of the parts of the EV are the same or similar to those in a conventional car, the package is sufficiently different that we can expect quite some time before there is a comparable body of knowledge.

This is the reason existing car manufacturers have been reluctant to build EVs - they know from horrible experience that major design changes are very expensive, not just in up front expenditure, but in the often unpredictable disruption to their manufacturing.

And the same sort of issue applies all down the line to selling and maintaining them.

It is for these reasons that new companies (such as Tesla) stand a good chance of being successful. Although they face the same challenges, they are not handicapped by having to fit in with an existing manufacturing system - but they have to put up the capital now to manufacture, while the existing manufacture can use at least some of the infrastructure that has already been written down.

For these reasons I do not expect to see affordable EVs any time soon, and until they are affordable, they are not going to be bought in significant numbers, no matter how little they cost to run!

All good thinking JD, but I reckon it will happen faster than that.

JLR have stated that all vehicles will be EV or hybrid after 2020. Jaguar Land Rover commits to all vehicles being electric or hybrid from 2020 | The Independent

Toyota are also about to release many more hybrid models. Etc...

The hybrid EV-ICE coss-over makes real sense now. Full EV will take a bit longer, but tech take up with the next generations is second nature now.

Us old fogeys just need to get out of the way! 😊

But I do agree affordability may be an issue, especially for full-size 4x4’s (not that this is limited to EV’s!). ...this is one reason I’m holding onto my Puma Defender instead of cashing in. I paid under $50K new and saw it as a long term investment. It might be worth $60K now?, but I doubt the next Defender will be priced under $75K.

Hi,
Looking at vehicle costs vs an average yearly wage seems to put the cheapest EV, Nissan Leaf at around $50k today, about the same price as a 1960's Mini or VW Beetle at £1k costing again about a year's wage.
So cars today are really quite cheap by comparison.
Cheers

Originally Posted by austastar

Hi,
Looking at vehicle costs vs an average yearly wage seems to put the cheapest EV, Nissan Leaf at around $50k today, about the same price as a 1960's Mini or VW Beetle at £1k costing again about a year's wage.
So cars today are really quite cheap by comparison.
Cheers

Would be interesting to compare all other basic living costs in Australia with 1960’s.