Goodnight Diesel. ...Land Rover get your EV skates on!

**JDNSW** · 17th December 2018, 10:03 AM

Originally Posted by Zeros

All good points JD, especially in terms of affordability for the majority. Although I’m concerned that this is rarely taken into account by authorities who seem to think everyone earns $100K per year! Power, water, gas, rates, land tax, phone, internet, not to mention the cost of other private essential services such as food, mechanics, trades, etc which all seem to be increasing in price exponentially.

Despite our mind bogglingly high cost of living, the economy here seems to keep growing.

Despite all the complaints, when I look back at my life, and that of my parents, I see that we currently have an unimaginably high standard of living compared to even a few decades ago. Sure, our houses cost a lot more - but speaking as someone who grew up sharing a bedroom with my brother, in a house whose roof leaked when it rained, with no hot water system, no heating, definitely no airconditioning, no phone, no flush toilets, it is hardly surprising that it costs more. And taking into account the inflated currency, most of this does not cost more!

My father admitted not owning a pair of shoes until he started high school - and he grew up in Orange!

I’m no economist, but think the opposite might happen in terms of diesel prices. As EVs become the norm, petroleum products will become more expensive due to less demand and higher production cost ratios.

Most petroleum production does not work like that - the major cost is the capital cost of exploration, drilling, and installing production facilities. With a substantial drop in demand, and these already in place, for these fields, the tendency will be to increase production to try and make up for lower prices. High ongoing production cost fields, such as a lot of those using tertiary production and some unconventional fields, and fields with low production per well will shut down, leaving the world average production cost lower. Eventually, as low cost fields are depleted, costs for oil will rise, but if demand drops substantially, as I expect it will, this could take a long time.

Of course, since the major part of the cost of the fuel you buy is government take (royalties plus taxes), which can be changed at the stroke of a pen, the physical limitations only provide an overall constraint!

But I agree it will be many years before there’s no diesel, supply will continue. The bigger issue may be legislation against diesel vehicles due to environmental, political and public pressure imperatives.

Very interesting discussion

A lot of things seem to be increasing in price, but also, allowing for inflation, a lot of things are decreasing in price. For example, almost anything manufactured. And we expect a lot of things that either did not exist a few decades ago, or were so expensive that no ordinary person even considered them. Some of these include sealed roads, airconditioning anywhere, most of the medical treatment available today, cheap air travel, international holidays, and so on. And some things that were never considered necessary are now considered necessary and add to cost - this would include a lot of safety rules, the ever increasing red tape, the growing surveillance society.

**JDNSW** · 17th December 2018, 10:09 AM

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

If there is a shift to EVs making us less reliant on petroleum fuels we will not need to import as much fuel so that will reduce our import bill and improve the balance of payments.
I see there is a proposal to manufacture lithium batteries in Australia so that would be good too. We have the raw materials and the skills, so we should do it, I think, instead of taking the short-sighted way of importing everything.

Don't forget that the same trends that will lead to less reliance on petroleum fuels will presumably mean a drop in exports of coal and LNG, two of our major export earners. Not clear what this would mean for the balance of payments!

**goingbush** · 17th December 2018, 10:41 AM

Originally Posted by JDNSW

A lot of things seem to be increasing in price, but also, allowing for inflation, a lot of things are decreasing in price. For example, almost anything manufactured. And we expect a lot of things that either did not exist a few decades ago, or were so expensive that no ordinary person even considered them. Some of these include sealed roads, airconditioning anywhere, most of the medical treatment available today, cheap air travel, international holidays, and so on. And some things that were never considered necessary are now considered necessary and add to cost - this would include a lot of safety rules, the ever increasing red tape, the growing surveillance society.

Could not agree with you more on this one. The world is heading for an implosion, it cant keep going the way it is , Absolutely No one needs any of this unnecessary crap . Every morning I look up and see multiple contrails, and shake my head the mind boggles, how the hell did humanity exist without inter-city airline travel and all this useless garbage & techno crap people cant seem to exist without.

**vnx205** · 17th December 2018, 11:40 AM

Originally Posted by JDNSW

A lot of things seem to be increasing in price, but also, allowing for inflation, a lot of things are decreasing in price.

I heard an interesting claim recently. I think that it is true but haven't been able to find data to prove it conclusively.

The claim was that in spite of all the current fuss about electricity prices, we are paying the same percentage of our income today as we were ten years ago and twenty years ago.

I suspect that around a decade ago and two decades ago wages rose faster than electricity prices so it was actually cheaper as a percentage of income. In the last few years electricity prices have risen but wages haven't, so it now costs the same percentage of our income again.

On the subject of EVs, I think if I had a huge disposable income I would probably buy an EV; not because I wanted to save the planet or because I wanted to save money, but because it would be nice to have one. I wonder how many other potential customers have the same irrational reason for buying an EV. I'm sure a lot of our purchasing decisions are not based on sound reasons.

However, I am not in that position and am never likely to be. So I satisfy myself by reading about advances in the technology and watching video clips of standard Teslas at drag meetings leaving powerful V8s in their wake.

**goingbush** · 17th December 2018, 01:20 PM

Looks interesting

Plower - Land Rover Defender, Electric conversion, Rebuilds and Overland - Electric Defender

DiscoMick · 17th December 2018, 01:58 PM

Originally Posted by goingbush

Looks interesting

Plower - Land Rover Defender, Electric conversion, Rebuilds and Overland - Electric Defender

That does look interesting.
I think the tipping point may be a retail price of about $50k and a range of 400ks+.
On those criteria, the Hyundai Kona EV about to be released has a 480k range and a price of about $50k, so that's proof it can be done.
JLR bet big on its Ingenium turbo diesel range just as the VW scandal damaged the reputation of diesels, plus they delayed the Defender too long.
Also, Brexit has damaged the British economy already and it will only get worse.
I see JLR is shifting Discovery production from the UK to Slovakia to cut costs.
But they really need to get affordable hybrid and EV versions out to buyers.

Jaguar Land Rover to 'axe up to 5,000 jobs'

Jaguar Land Rover to 'axe up to 5,000 jobs' | Business | The Guardian

**Zeros** · 17th December 2018, 02:20 PM

Originally Posted by goingbush

Looks interesting

Plower - Land Rover Defender, Electric conversion, Rebuilds and Overland - Electric Defender

Indeed. Well if that’s for real we’ll be driving electric Defenders tomorrow.

Brexit, VW, Climate change and now price parity means there’s nothing stopping the roll out of fast chargers across the country ...unless of course NBN Co. are involved LOL.

Investors are clamouring to buy into the manufacturers of the charging network.

This time next year we’ll be discussing mass Defender conversions for real and which brand of solar skin / solar paint apply.

**Grumbles** · 17th December 2018, 03:55 PM

Originally Posted by vnx205

So I satisfy myself by reading about advances in the technology and watching video clips of standard Teslas at drag meetings leaving powerful V8s in their wake.

The acceleration rate of the EVs may prove to be a problem in that the average driver is not skilled enough to control such an off the mark quick vehicle and the accident rate will soar.

Will governments step in and order an artificial acceleration rate be built into these EVs to slow them down?

**Arapiles** · 17th December 2018, 06:45 PM

Originally Posted by Grumbles

The acceleration rate of the EVs may prove to be a problem in that the average driver is not skilled enough to control such an off the mark quick vehicle and the accident rate will soar.

Will governments step in and order an artificial acceleration rate be built into these EVs to slow them down?

From my ride in a Tesla S I presume it's only when you slam the accelerator down that it does that - it'd be a bit odd for the engineers to design hair-trigger acceleration in a road-vehicle.

**Grumbles** · 17th December 2018, 07:16 PM

Originally Posted by Arapiles

it'd be a bit odd for the engineers to design hair-trigger acceleration in a road-vehicle.

Q - Tesla also happened to show off its newest sports car which claimed not only an unheard of acceleration from zero-to-60 miles per hour in 1.9 seconds, but also a top speed of over 250 mph - UQ

Thread: Goodnight Diesel. ...Land Rover get your EV skates on!

Thread Tools

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions