Thread: Climate Change and our Land of Fire, Flood and Drought.

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

....
Instead of being frozen at the poles its now melting and flowing into the oceans, which are warming, affecting the climate.
We can use it on land, but it's salty in the oceans. We think there is less water, but it's still out there, causing the oceans to rise.

And yep!
yet some folks are adamant that there is a water shortage issue because of global warming and require proof that there isn't.
The water shortages are due to bad planning and excessive consumption(ie. population growth) .. not a lack of supply.

So as oceans warm, they evaporate more readily, which introduces more moisture into the atmosphere, which has to fall as rain .. ie. more rainfall with a warming globe.
As they say in science .. global cooling (ie. ice ages) locks up water into the poles, so the reverse has to be true of warming the globe.
As I've read this has been shown to be the result in Aus.

One dry season, and it's fuel for the doom and gloom prophets ... and something needs to be urgently done about it! .. like what? .... cool the globe?
One other thing that the data appears to show is that for no significant period in history has the globe maintained a steady temperature over an extended(eg. 200-500 year period) .. so it's either cooling or warming at some rate.
Does it really matter at what rate .. especially as it's shown that in previous periods it's warmed and cooled a lot faster than it currently is.

Originally Posted by Saitch

But, Arthur, we are doomed I tell you. Doomed!

The luminosity of the Sun will steadily increase, resulting in a rise in the solar radiation reaching the Earth. This will result in a higher rate of weathering of silicate minerals, which will cause a decrease in the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In about 600 million years from now, the level of carbon dioxide will fall below the level needed to sustain C₃ carbon fixation photosynthesis used by trees. Some plants use the C₄ carbon fixation method, allowing them to persist at carbon dioxide concentrations as low as 10 parts per million. However, the long-term trend is for plant life to die off altogether. The extinction of plants will be the demise of almost all animal life, since plants are the base of the food chain on Earth.^[12]

So, urgent remedial action is required .. NOW!

Originally Posted by AK83

.............................
So as oceans warm, they evaporate more readily, which introduces more moisture into the atmosphere, which has to fall as rain .. ie. more rainfall with a warming globe............................................. .................................................. ..........................So, urgent remedial action is required .. NOW!

Just a technical comment...........

Warmth will encourage evaporation, as will an increase in wind speed.

Condensation (i.e. clouds to rain) is actually increased as the air is cooled, as in rising over a mountain range when the pressure drops for example. This could increase with increasing wind, who knows?

The whole thing is incredibly complicated.

cheers, DL

SEP. 2019. The air above Antarctica is getting warmer. What it means for Australia. The predictions were pretty well spot on.


The air above Antarctica is suddenly getting warmer – here's what it means for Australia

Originally Posted by bob10

SEP. 2019. The air above Antarctica is getting warmer. What it means for Australia. The predictions were pretty well spot on.


The air above Antarctica is suddenly getting warmer – here's what it means for Australia

Good news is we’re less likely to get sunburnt.
As it closes the hole in the Ozone layer.

Originally Posted by bob10

SEP. 2019. The air above Antarctica is getting warmer. What it means for Australia. The predictions were pretty well spot on.


The air above Antarctica is suddenly getting warmer – here's what it means for Australia

You didn't need to measure the air temp above Antarctica to realise that this year was going to be dry .. a quick read over the historical data would have indicated that one of the last two or next two would be so.
So the prediction isn't so much spot on .. as it's 'inevitable'.
So what do these geniuses predict for 2020 then .. already proven to have been so 'spot on'.

Oh! and as for this quote:

Climate change doesn’t create bushfires, but can make them worse

From this link to the same news source(different article).
Exactly, what do they mean? The implication is that a warming globe is causing worse bushfires .. that's what I'm reading .. or is there a hidden implication in their article.
Are they sayingn that it has made them worse in some way. What exactly does the term 'can' mean. Where is the proof that is has in some way made them worse even to use the fence sitting term 'can'.
It either will or it won't.
If there is a variability to the worsening level of bushfire destructivity, it's either caused by one phenomenon or another! which is it?
All they're trying to achieve here is the typical emotional, non cynical response from the reader who is easily duped by hyperbole. Most will read it and think .. "damn this global warming is causing worse bushfires" and be done with it.
But the reality is global warming has reduced bushfire damage to land(simplistic I know, as this doesn't take into account human activity on the land since then).

So, again, the issue here is that there is zero data to prove their statement, and in fact the data points to an opposing statement.. that climate change(that is man made climate change .. warming!) has made bushfires much less worse in their destructive ability.

Bushfires in Victoria

Where are they seeing this supposed worsening bushfires data?
Australia sees some of the worst bushfires in the world. period!
The list of the worst bushfires in the world predominantly see the very late 1800's and early 1900's as the worst period.

It's all in the definition, or the adjective used by them calling it worse/worsening.
What they're referring too is the loss of life and property, but in terms of totality of destroyed land .. nothing compares with the 1850's Black Thursday in Vic .. basically 5x worse than any other.
NSW sees some monstrous fires too .. notably pre 1984.
Also noting tho that the 1980's is generall regarded as the beginning of the warming period(compared to the 1900 baseline temperature anomaly).
So, while there have been some massive fires since the beginning of the warming period, none match the affected area that the earliest fires had done!

So what the headline should have read is something such as:

Human encroachment into the bush is causing modern bushfires to produce higher human casualties for a given fire period!

That would make this specific news service less deceptive, less sensationalist, and far more accurate.
Doing so tho would be counterproductive to their sales base I guess. People won't care as climate change isn't being blamed, and some may even out them as climate sceptics for the fact that they hadn't blamed climate change.

If these are a primary source you use for news, without question ... all the best to 'ya!

Human activity is increasing global warming. Global warming is heating the oceans which is changing current flows which affects the weather. Africa is having more severe floods while Australia is having more severe droughts. More severe droughts mean less rainfall. Less rainfall means drier land and vegetation, which means fires are more likely and burn hotter and more dangerously, as we've just seen on the East Coast. Wet rainforests have plants which are killed by fire, so if the plants are there it means the rainforest has never burnt. When wet rainforests which have never burnt are burning, as they have during the last month, you know the situation is extreme.

Originally Posted by bob10

SEP. 2019. The air above Antarctica is getting warmer. What it means for Australia. The predictions were pretty well spot on.


The air above Antarctica is suddenly getting warmer – here's what it means for Australia

Abstract

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The Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) plays a major role in the climate and environment of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, including surface air temperature and sea ice concentration changes. Unfortunately, a relative dearth of observational data across the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas prior to the satellite era (post-1979) limits our understanding of the past behaviour and impact of the ASL. The limited proxy evidence for changes in the ASL are primarily restricted to the Antarctic where ice core evidence suggests a deepening of the atmospheric pressure system during the late Holocene. However, no data have previously been reported from the northern side of the ASL. Here we report a high-resolution, multi-proxy study of a 5000-year-long peat record from the Falkland Islands, a location sensitive to contemporary ASL dynamics which modulates northerly and westerly airflow across the southwestern South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. In combination with climate reanalysis, we find a marked period of wetter, colder conditions most likely the result of enhanced southerly airflow between 5000 and 2500 years ago, suggesting limited ASL influence over the region. After 2500 years ago, drier and warmer conditions were established, implying more westerly airflow and the increased projection of the ASL onto the South Atlantic. The possible role of the equatorial Pacific via atmospheric teleconnections in driving this change is discussed. Our results are in agreement with Antarctic ice core records and fjord sediments from the southern South American coast, and suggest that the Falkland Islands provide a valuable location for reconstructing high southern latitude atmospheric circulation changes on multi-decadal to millennial timescales.


How to cite.
Thomas, Z. A., Jones, R. T., Fogwill, C. J., Hatton, J., Williams, A. N., Hogg, A., Mooney, S., Jones, P., Lister, D., Mayewski, P., and Turney, C. S. M.: Evidence for increased expression of the Amundsen Sea Low over the South Atlantic during the late Holocene, Clim. Past, 14, 1727–1738, CP - Evidence for increased expression of the Amundsen Sea Low over the South Atlantic during the late Holocene, 2018.

This explains it pretty well, I think.

How global warming is changing childhood
See how climate change has impacted the world since your childhood - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)