Climate Change and our Land of Fire, Flood and Drought.

**bob10** · 7th December 2019, 06:55 AM

Originally Posted by AK83

You didn't need to measure the air temp above Antarctica to realise that this year was going to be dry .. a quick read over the historical data would have indicated that one of the last two or next two would be so.
So the prediction isn't so much spot on .. as it's 'inevitable'.
So what do these geniuses predict for 2020 then .. already proven to have been so 'spot on'.

Oh! and as for this quote:

From this link to the same news source(different article).
Exactly, what do they mean? The implication is that a warming globe is causing worse bushfires .. that's what I'm reading .. or is there a hidden implication in their article.
Are they sayingn that it has made them worse in some way. What exactly does the term 'can' mean. Where is the proof that is has in some way made them worse even to use the fence sitting term 'can'.
It either will or it won't.
If there is a variability to the worsening level of bushfire destructivity, it's either caused by one phenomenon or another! which is it?
All they're trying to achieve here is the typical emotional, non cynical response from the reader who is easily duped by hyperbole. Most will read it and think .. "damn this global warming is causing worse bushfires" and be done with it.
But the reality is global warming has reduced bushfire damage to land(simplistic I know, as this doesn't take into account human activity on the land since then).

So, again, the issue here is that there is zero data to prove their statement, and in fact the data points to an opposing statement.. that climate change(that is man made climate change .. warming!) has made bushfires much less worse in their destructive ability.

Bushfires in Victoria

Where are they seeing this supposed worsening bushfires data?
Australia sees some of the worst bushfires in the world. period!
The list of the worst bushfires in the world predominantly see the very late 1800's and early 1900's as the worst period.

It's all in the definition, or the adjective used by them calling it worse/worsening.
What they're referring too is the loss of life and property, but in terms of totality of destroyed land .. nothing compares with the 1850's Black Thursday in Vic .. basically 5x worse than any other.
NSW sees some monstrous fires too .. notably pre 1984.
Also noting tho that the 1980's is generall regarded as the beginning of the warming period(compared to the 1900 baseline temperature anomaly).
So, while there have been some massive fires since the beginning of the warming period, none match the affected area that the earliest fires had done!

So what the headline should have read is something such as:

Human encroachment into the bush is causing modern bushfires to produce higher human casualties for a given fire period!

That would make this specific news service less deceptive, less sensationalist, and far more accurate.
Doing so tho would be counterproductive to their sales base I guess. People won't care as climate change isn't being blamed, and some may even out them as climate sceptics for the fact that they hadn't blamed climate change.

If these are a primary source you use for news, without question ... all the best to 'ya!

I wasn't going to post here again, but I have a site that may interest you. OzeEWEX. What is it? And have you heard of BARRA-R ?

What is OzEWEX? | Australian Water and Energy Exchanges research initiative

Regional reanalysis for precipitation data over Australia | Australian Water and Energy Exchanges research initiative

Some more reading.

Australian Water and Energy Exchanges research initiative | OzEWEX is the Australian Energy and Water Exchange initiative, a climate and water community organisation connecting researchers and research users.

and of course there is GEWEX

http://www.gewex.org/

and of course you must have heard of the WCRP if you are serious about climate research.

https://www.wcrp-climate.org/

These are a small part of the scientific community undertaking trying to understand the future of our climate. You may note they don't push a barrow for either side of the debate. I prefer to read from their findings rather than some random wannabe scientist obsessed with numbers, who has not shown an understanding of the problem. On a land rover forum, for goodness sake. The amount of science involved with land rover drivers is, by necessity, when car wet= rain. When car dry= not rain. Can't see because of smoke = must be fire. Water over bonnet= must be flood. unbearably hot = A/C not working. [ meant as humour, before the usual suspects bring out the knives.]

**V8Ian** · 7th December 2019, 07:54 AM

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

What, you mean like buying an economical 4WD with relatively low emissions, choosing a camper trailer rather than a big caravan, doubling the solar power to our house, walking and catching public transport, recycling, having a small orchard, vegie garden and chooks, planting natives, being on tank water and not watering the garden?
Plus I try to limit my farting!

Climate Change and our Land of Fire, Flood and Drought.

That's it?

That won't even neutralise you recent treck! Let's not mention the upcoming one.
The short list above is all for your convenience, which brings me to my point. All the doomsday peddlers are actually doing nothing to change the situation, other than peddle panic and tell others to make drastic changes to their lifestyles.
Jilden is the only person, I know, who has put in a fair dinkum effort and actually minimised his footprint.

**rick130** · 7th December 2019, 09:04 AM

Originally Posted by AK83

And yep!
yet some folks

are adamant that there is a water shortage issue because of global warming and require proof that there isn't.
The water shortages are due to bad planning and excessive consumption(ie. population growth) .. not a lack of supply.

So as oceans warm, they evaporate more readily, which introduces more moisture into the atmosphere, which has to fall as rain .. ie. more rainfall with a warming globe.
As they say in science .. global cooling (ie. ice ages) locks up water into the poles, so the reverse has to be true of warming the globe.
As I've read this has been shown to be the result in Aus.

One dry season, and it's fuel for the doom and gloom prophets ... and something needs to be urgently done about it! .. like what? .... cool the globe?
One other thing that the data appears to show is that for no significant period in history has the globe maintained a steady temperature over an extended(eg. 200-500 year period) .. so it's either cooling or warming at some rate.
Does it really matter at what rate .. especially as it's shown that in previous periods it's warmed and cooled a lot faster than it currently is.

So, urgent remedial action is required .. NOW!

No, the evidence suggests that the current rate of transition is far faster than anything ever experienced before.

And rainfall that falls on the oceans (which cover the bulk of the earth's surface) don't do anything to offset the increased drying some parts of the earth's surface will experience.

**bob10** · 7th December 2019, 10:23 AM

Originally Posted by V8Ian

That's it?

That won't even neutralise you recent treck! Let's not mention the upcoming one.
The short list above is all for your convenience, which brings me to my point. All the doomsday peddlers are actually doing nothing to change the situation, other than peddle panic and tell others to make drastic changes to their lifestyles.
Jilden is the only person, I know, who has put in a fair dinkum effort and actually minimised his footprint.

Don't assume. You know what happens then. The only thing we haven't done is buy the electric car. Because we can't afford it. All we need are the batteries, and we could effectively be off the grid. Another cost issue. All of my garden tools are battery powered, and yes, they have to be recharged. We do not have air conditioning. As we found out in Darwin, you do not acclimatise to the heat by using air conditioning. Ceiling fans are more than enough. I use public transport and my bicycle, for local travel. The old D2 has too many Km's anyway. The wife still drives to work, in a modern vehicle with emission control stuff.

Like almost everyone else including you, I suggest, we would willingly do much more, but the cost is prohibitive. My next vehicle was going to be one of the lower cost 4x4's, but now an EV seems the better choice. Don't point the finger at people who would if they could, look no further than a government [ all colours] that has no plan, except build more coal power plants. No plan to subsidise the cost of EV's, no plan's for stations to power them up, no subsidies for modern batteries to allow homes to go off grid, [ AFAIK] no thought about housing hubs to power share, as in some overseas countries. This post of yours is a petty minded finger pointing exercise, designed for what I'm not sure. But I'm disappointed, I thought you were better than that. EDIT forgot the water tank, which will be plumbed to the toilet and washing machine, once we buy another tank, to increase the water supply. It just takes ages to save nowadays.

**V8Ian** · 7th December 2019, 10:36 AM

You are in the minority, Bob. So many folk advocating lifestyle changes think others should be making the changes, while they don't have to.

DiscoMick · 7th December 2019, 10:39 AM

One of the big things making emissions worse than they need be is the refusal of the current federal government to move to the latest fuel quality standards, which already apply in most developed countries. Many of the vehicles coming into the country are already tuned to run on the best quality fuel, and our dirtier fuel clogs up their systems. I believe this is a factor in the Toyota Hilux DPF problem.
The world is ahead of us in fuel quality and it's unnecessarily worsening our vehicle emissions.

DiscoMick · 7th December 2019, 10:43 AM

Originally Posted by V8Ian

That's it?

That won't even neutralise you recent treck! Let's not mention the upcoming one.
The short list above is all for your convenience, which brings me to my point. All the doomsday peddlers are actually doing nothing to change the situation, other than peddle panic and tell others to make drastic changes to their lifestyles.
Jilden is the only person, I know, who has put in a fair dinkum effort and actually minimised his footprint.

We have just made dramatic changes to our lifestyle.
We've just transitioned from city residents with limited opportunities to reduce emissions to rural residents with more opportunities. We're doing what we can, as fast as we can. The extra solar will go in in January. Other steps are underway. I'm about to drag my bicycle out of storage.

The Defender actually has quite a clean exhaust, much cleaner than many other vehicles running around, like my BIL's dirty old 80. And our Mazda 2 is very clean.

Also, not farting is actually significant. If we all stopped farting, the world would be a better place.

**AK83** · 7th December 2019, 11:34 AM

Originally Posted by bob10

.....

These are a small part of the scientific community undertaking trying to understand the future of our climate. You may note they don't push a barrow for either side of the debate. I prefer to read from their findings rather than some random wannabe scientist obsessed with numbers, who has not shown an understanding of the problem. .....

I can assure you I don't 'wannabe scientists' .. if I did, I would have chosen that career path.
"obsession with numbers" is what defines science!
Science is to collect data, and try to make heads or tales of it.

All I'm doing is highlighting the numbers.
The 'numbers' aren't mine .. they are from your scientific communities numbers.
You choose to ignore them just because I post them? Or do you ignore them just because you don't like them?

99% of your posts are links to various news/info items of one type or another.
So what you're implying is, that I'm not allowed to post these actual numbers, which highlight the discrepancy of the 'predictions' and analysis .. but that you are somehow entitled to post any number of links to info of your choosing?

I didn't realise that this forum works in this manner .. that only one specific member has such entitlement.

I'll have a read of those links soon .. busy fixing stuff and making food for kids.

**AK83** · 8th December 2019, 06:38 AM

Originally Posted by rick130

....
And rainfall that falls on the oceans (which cover the bulk of the earth's surface) don't do anything to offset the increased drying some parts of the earth's surface will experience.

Rainfall data I've 'relied on' is all (Aus)ground based.
I've also seen other sources of data(mainly older sets, 2015 or so) Indonesia has also recorded increases in the past 50 + years .. etc.

As for the reliability of their stated claims that the current warming period is faster than anything else in history ...
Unless they have time machines to go back and capture the data in the same manner as they have over the past century ... can't be certain.
We can only take their claims at face value .. ie. just accept that they know their data is as correct as they presume they think it is.

ie. they're comparing different data sets, so always open to conjecture!

Hence the importance of the GISP2 graph .. the greenland ice cores I've pointed too earlier.(page 60)
Archaeologist have found many clues to aridification(global cooling event), where it doesn't show up in the ice core samples .. the 4.2Kyr event.
The point here is that ice core samples, while they are useful is not the same data as are recorded samples.

**RANDLOVER** · 8th December 2019, 09:14 PM

I can't help thinking that today's climate change sceptics are like the people that wouldn't believe weather patterns from as far afield as South America, Australia, India and even China, were in fact related, until Gilbert Walker developed the mathematics to prove it. Gilbert Walker - Wikipedia

Walker developed Blanford's idea with quantitative rigour and came up with correlation measures (with a lag) and regression equations (in time-series terminology,

autoregression

). He set up a group of Indian clerks to calculate correlations between weather parameters.

^[8]

The methods he introduced for time-series regression are now partly named after him (the other contributor was

Udny Yule

who studied sun-spot cycles) as the Yule-Walker equations.

^[5]

Analyzing vast amounts of weather data from India and lands beyond, over the next fifteen years he published the first descriptions of the great seesaw oscillation of

atmospheric pressure

between the Indian and

Pacific Ocean

, and its correlation to

temperature

and

rainfall

patterns across much of the Earth's tropical regions, including India. This is now called the

El Niño Southern Oscillation

.