Thread: Climate Change and our Land of Fire, Flood and Drought.

Maybe not, but it won't be anywhere near as much as happened under Aboriginal management.

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

Maybe not, but it won't be anywhere near as much as happened under Aboriginal management.

true.
why cant we replicate aboriginal burning?

Maybe because we don't understand Aboriginal culture?

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

Maybe because we don't understand Aboriginal culture?

i dont think the wider aboriginal cultuure is relevant.
just their fire techniques.

also too much red tape.

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

Maybe because we don't understand Aboriginal culture?

There’s been some research, it’s been shown that some of the Indigenous land management techniques resulted in the extinction of much Flora and fauna. As well as the contribution to many now arid areas.

It’s not all a solution, remember back then there were 20,000 people on an entire continent... no serious forms of communication and limited story telling. And the continent was in a different geographical position.

Evidence shows a significant amount of damage done during that period. Just not as bad as recent times.

i never thought about it til you mentioned it.
does that mean that aboriginal population has flourished since the arrival of white man?

No, the opposite. In the years after 1788 a smallpox epidemic brought by the invaders is believed to have killed about half the indigenous people in this country.

Aborigines certainly changed the landscape very successfully.
For example, the regular burning reduced insect numbers. Once the burning stopped, and hard-hoofed animals were introduced with their droppings, fly and mosquito numbers multiplied.

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

Climate change makes all types of weather, droughts and cyclones, more extreme so there is nothing significant in rainfall being higher in some areas and lower in others. That fits the pattern of a warming climate.

The Indian Ocean Dipolar is one of a number of indicators which are based on huge amounts of data of all types. If you want data, there it is.

So the point that rainfall is equalising across the continent means that it's getting more extreme?
The highest rainfall area(Tas) is getting less, and the lowest rainfall area(SA) is getting more over the last century
Well that really makes sense then doesn't it!

Yeah, would love to see some of this data .. but all you reference is hypothesis .. no actual data. Captured data, historical data .. data of any type.
All you seem interested in is speculative assessments.

IOD is a localised phenomenon, not a long term predictive tool.
If it could be used as a long term prediction, they'd have seen the current rain shortfall many years prior to this year not unexpected low(apparently the 5TH lowest on record).

Actual data .. real data, not speculation .. can help to see the patterns inherent in the climate.
As you said .. the data is all there. I read it! You seem to ignore it .. they(BoM) also seem to ignore it, else they'd have warned the authorities that this year could have been a low rainfall year(which it turned out to be).

Because the patterns are long term trends(ie. approx 15 or so years) they forget that it happened 15 years ago, and so when it happens again in the years to come, instead of remembering that it happened X number of yeas ago, they create fear claiming that 'it's the worst' .. again!
If the pattern repeats as expected again, the next 5-10 years will most likely see higher than average rainfall every year, with possibly one, maybe two years of flood conditions.(as happened in '10 and '11).
So between 2020 and 2025, expect to see floods again, most likely in the MDB area .. where the drought has appeared to have hit hardest.
This is not going to be the 'worst flood ever' is not going to be 'extreme' in any way .. it's just the same forgotten pattern having repeated itself as it has done so for the past 150 years or so.

2010 and 2011 were no different than it happened in '74-75, which themselves were no different to '55-56, which themselves again were no different to (approx)1919-1920. Only dip in the pattern was 1984(post 1983 drought), where it rained a lot, comparatively, but not as much as those listed peak years .. so if there were 'floods' in 1984 they would have been less severe.

IOD theories tell us NOTHING about long term weather patterns that have the potential to affect civilisation(ie. droughts and floods)