
Originally Posted by
V8Ian
Even Boing cant get itright, what chance has Hyundai got?
Flying a plane is a much simpler task than driving a car. The reason that it is usually considered more difficult is that the consequences for any error tend to be much more serious - and if in doubt or confused you can't slow down or stop.
Despite the disparaging comments you see about the average driver, statistics show that on average a driver will travel around a million kilometres between serious accidents (serious being fatal or injury). In fact, most drivers are a lot better than this,because a substantial part of the statistics is contributed by repeat offenders.
This suggests that for us to be confident that an autonomous system will be better than the average* human driver, it will need to be tested over around a million kilometres.
Easy you say? 100 cars over 10,000km? A big effort, but doable.
But there is a catch. The software to achieve this will contain perhaps more than a million lines of source code, and it is likely to depend on dozens of sensors of one type or another. Change a single line of code or a a single sensor, and you are starting a new experiment.
* Isn't the claim that autonomous cars will be better than the average driver?
(Oh, and yesterday in a 20km drive I hit a roo. It is very hard to see how an autonomous vehicle would have managed to avoid this - I was driving about 70kph on a road with scrub right to the edge of the graded road, about 2m from the LH edge of the road, when a roo travelling at about the same speed came out of the scrub to the left and tried to cross in front. Fortunately it was a small one and was struck by the front and rear axle housings. I was still lifting my right foot off the throttle when it hit.)
John
JDNSW
1986 110 County 3.9 diesel
1970 2a 109 2.25 petrol
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