Thread: Risk vs perception

Originally Posted by rick130

Of I agree, the risk in this country is tiny, the risk raised by the experts is that of the lack of immunity vs other corona type viruses like the flu and the lack of transparency by the Chinese govt (surprise surprise)

Kettle and black issue re transparency would need to be in Current Affairs to comment

The stuff ups with information and access are being dealt with Noted" WHO is looking at WHO is investigating 1,716 health workers in China infected with coronavirus"
A good point on this is "It appears infections among medical workers peaked in mid-January and have “rapidly” decreased since, according to the World Health Organization."

Reason is being prepared and educated of course.

Worth remembering that there are two aspects to risk:-

1. Probability of the event occurring

2. Severity of the event

And we also have to think about what 'event' we are talking about. If we think the risk is that of personal death from COVID19, then yes, the risk for any individual is almost certainly quite low, but the severity high.

If we think about the risk to the Australian population as a whole, there are too many unknowns. The probability of the virus becoming fairly widespread in Australia is unknown, because we have no clear picture of how infectious it is. And we also have no clear picture of the severity, that is how many deaths would be likely from this risk.

But if we think about the economic cost of the virus to Australia, there are fewer unknowns. The probability of it having a substantial economic impact is quite high. Already, it is badly impacting tourism and education, two of Australia's major export earners and jobs providers, and it is starting to affect supply chains in almost every industry. So in this case we know the probability is high, approaching 100%, and although we do not know how bad it is going to get, it is already clear it is going to be bad. If, as is fairly likely, it results in a substantial drop in coal and iron ore sales, it will have a major impact, including the state budgets of WA, Qld and NSW, and the federal budget, with all the flow0n effects of this.

a lot of wrong information in this thread

How so? Which bits mate?

Cleaning up the cash. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-cleans-locks-away-banknotes-to-stop-coronavirus-spread?cx_testId=20&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos= 3#cxrecs_s

Originally Posted by NavyDiver

Risk V preception

I assume this should read "Risk vs Perception"?

It had me confused at first - I didn't know what a Risk 5 meant.

From the National museum Australia. defining moments of the influenza pandemic.

The first ship intercepted in Aus. with cases of the flu was the Mataran, intercepted in in Darwin. There were more cases found in Melbourne, but the Victorian Gov. of the time weren't sure if it was Spanish flu, or normal flu, consequently the flu spread to other States, which caused a certain amount of angst. NZ had the Spanish flu before Aus., and Aus. had time to put in place quarantine arrangements to limit its spread. Still, around 15,000 people died, and 40% of the population were infected. Commonwealth serum laboratories were established during the First World War, and they developed their first experimental vaccine in anticipation of the Spanish flu reaching Australia. Maritime quarantine proved effective, and contained the spread of the virus, and restricted its eventual introduction to Australia to a single entry point, Melbourne. More humans died from the Spanish flu [ named after where it was first found] , 50 to 100 million, than were killed in WW1, 18 million, and Australia's 2.7 / 1000 death rate was one of the lowest recorded in the World during the pandemic.

Influenza pandemic | National Museum of Australia

Originally Posted by p38arover

I assume this should read "Risk vs Perception"?

It had me confused at first - I didn't know what a Risk 5 meant.

My ability to create typing errors in a real risk not a 'Perception" Edited with thanks

Xièxiè LǎoshīNoted a Doctor we know in Singapore did provide a elevation of real risk in Singapore. That still Leaves us in a very low risk position despite misconceptions.

Coronavirus: Why Singapore is so vulnerable to coronavirus spread - BBC News

Originally Posted by NavyDiver

My ability to create typing errors in a real risk not a 'Perception" Edited with thanks

I fixed the displayed thread title, too.