Corona Virus

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Originally Posted by JDNSW

The world survived the 1918-19 epidemic, yes. Whether it was worse than this is unknown at this time. It is not over by any many yet. The 1918 epidemic delayed recovery from WW1, and I suppose you could argue it was one of the factors leading to the rise of Nazism, but its economic impact was very much blurred by the fact that it just slowed the recovery of the world from what was the first World War in history - the major economies were already on a war footing, and it just slowed the economic recovery from the war.

This time the economic impact is going to be far greater, because the world economies are far more interconnected than they were in 1918, and because a far greater part of the developed economies is consumption of discretionary purchases, meaning that this consumption can be turned off pretty much overnight. And it will be a lot slower turning on again.

In my view, the economic impact will be much more like 1929 than 1919, but things won't get as bad, nor will they last as long - at least I hope governments have learned! But because it is basically a health crisis not one with its roots in the financial system like 1929 or the GFC, I don't think we really know how to deal with it. And it will probably reveal a lot of hidden (or not so hidden) flaws in our economy, most notably the ridiculous levels of household debt.

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We will be fine.
China will come to rescue just like the GFC

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JDNSW

The world survived the 1918-19 epidemic, yes. Whether it was worse than this is unknown at this time. It is not over by any many yet. The 1918 epidemic delayed recovery from WW1, and I suppose you could argue it was one of the factors leading to the rise of Nazism, but its economic impact was very much blurred by the fact that it just slowed the recovery of the world from what was the first World War in history - the major economies were already on a war footing, and it just slowed the economic recovery from the war.

This time the economic impact is going to be far greater, because the world economies are far more interconnected than they were in 1918, and because a far greater part of the developed economies is consumption of discretionary purchases, meaning that this consumption can be turned off pretty much overnight. And it will be a lot slower turning on again.

In my view, the economic impact will be much more like 1929 than 1919, but things won't get as bad, nor will they last as long - at least I hope governments have learned! But because it is basically a health crisis not one with its roots in the financial system like 1929 or the GFC, I don't think we really know how to deal with it. And it will probably reveal a lot of hidden (or not so hidden) flaws in our economy, most notably the ridiculous levels of household debt.

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Agree,...BIG TIME...very good post.
Some people, no one in particular, & in case some think I'm zeroing on some forum members, I'M NOT,...so just some people in general, the general population etc, IMHO are NOT taking this virus as serious. They think it will just pass!!.....Yeah right,....well infections are increasing, deaths are increasing, and there is no vaccine, so am I worried,...Absolutely.
The Economic consequence of this is going to be massive,..it will affect everyone.
Like most, I've had a few worries (well at the time I thought they were worries), in my life, but NOTHING has worried me like this issue.
Anyway, just how I feel, Pickles.

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Originally Posted by Pickles2

Agree,...BIG TIME...very good post.
Some people, no one in particular, & in case some think I'm zeroing on some forum members, I'M NOT,...so just some people in general, the general population etc, IMHO are NOT taking this virus as serious. They think it will just pass!!.....Yeah right,....well infections are increasing, deaths are increasing, and there is no vaccine, so am I worried,...Absolutely.
The Economic consequence of this is going to be massive,..it will affect everyone.
Like most, I've had a few worries (well at the time I thought they were worries), in my life, but NOTHING has worried me like this issue.
Anyway, just how I feel, Pickles.

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I am pretty sure that nobody is treating this corona pandemic lightly and rightly so BUT panic and hysteria will NOT help the situation one iota.
With a little bit of common sense and making sure that those infected Don't pass this virus on to others we will eventually come out of the other side of this emergency.
From what I have seen so far Many of the public are being incredibly Selfish with their Hoarding and Not self isolating because they don't give a rats arse about anyone else and this HAS to STOP.

The Draconian measures implemented in China seems to have worked Very well, Maybe we should bite the bullet and do the same.[thumbsupbig]

Q. Why is crown still allowed to operate, are the an essential service. they have gatherings of hundreds if not thousands of people indoors.

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Originally Posted by JDNSW

The world survived the 1918-19 epidemic, yes. Whether it was worse than this is unknown at this time. It is not over by any many yet. The 1918 epidemic delayed recovery from WW1, and I suppose you could argue it was one of the factors leading to the rise of Nazism, but its economic impact was very much blurred by the fact that it just slowed the recovery of the world from what was the first World War in history - the major economies were already on a war footing, and it just slowed the economic recovery from the war.

This time the economic impact is going to be far greater, because the world economies are far more interconnected than they were in 1918, and because a far greater part of the developed economies is consumption of discretionary purchases, meaning that this consumption can be turned off pretty much overnight. And it will be a lot slower turning on again.

In my view, the economic impact will be much more like 1929 than 1919, but things won't get as bad, nor will they last as long - at least I hope governments have learned! But because it is basically a health crisis not one with its roots in the financial system like 1929 or the GFC, I don't think we really know how to deal with it. And it will probably reveal a lot of hidden (or not so hidden) flaws in our economy, most notably the ridiculous levels of household debt.

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What the coronavirus means for super funds, from Rice Warner.

https://www.ricewarner.com/wp-conten...ds_20.3.20.pdf

Maybe it would be better if we did - but it won't happen, for several reasons:-

1. About 75% of the population would oppose it.
2. There are nowhere near enough police, army and reservists to make it happen.
3. We don't have surveillance everywhere like China does. Probably less than 50% will dob in the neighbour even in the worst situation
4. Too large a proportion of the population is very scattered. Even in cities most live in single family homes, means too much manpower to confine each family
5. We don't have government control of all media and communications
6. Too many cars - makes it too easy to avoid restrictions.
7. Too many guns in the hands of ordinary citizens.

If the situation gets so bad that the government can convince a large majority that it is needed, it might happen,but look how successful the anti-hoarding directions have been.

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Originally Posted by trout1105

From what I have seen so far Many of the public are being incredibly Selfish with their Hoarding and Not self isolating because they don't give a rats arse about anyone else...

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I disagree. I see most people doing a great job of doing their part and helping others. It is wonderful to see people at their best. There are always a few idiots but they are few and far between.

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Originally Posted by Roverlord off road spares

Q. Why is crown still allowed to operate, are the an essential service. they have gatherings of hundreds if not thousands of people indoors.

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They are currently in talks with the state government to see if there are ways they can continue to operate. It is unclear whether this is possible, but the state government will be doing their best to keep them going as they are a large source of revenue for the state (and business is booming).

(Inside info - a son works there! He is hoping to get a package so he can get out of Melbourne. As a long term employee, he will be one of the last let go, as they will have to pay him too much!)

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Originally Posted by trout1105

I am pretty sure that nobody is treating this corona pandemic lightly and rightly so BUT panic and hysteria will NOT help the situation one iota.
With a little bit of common sense and making sure that those infected Don't pass this virus on to others we will eventually come out of the other side of this emergency.
From what I have seen so far Many of the public are being incredibly Selfish with their Hoarding and Not self isolating because they don't give a rats arse about anyone else and this HAS to STOP.

The Draconian measures implemented in China seems to have worked Very well, Maybe we should bite the bullet and do the same.[thumbsupbig]

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I agree entirely with you. There is a difference between treating it lightly, and stoic pragmatism. I've been out shopping this morning, and I saw no panic or hysteria , and no complacency with any one I spoke to. The general feeling was , swing with the punches, and deal with what comes. If it happens, it happens. But be prepared, do what is necessary to keep yourselves safe. The only time I saw anything resembling the goings on in Melbourne shown on TV,[ and that could have been just sensationalist reporting], was when a woman of obvious central European descent was starting to get hysterical when there was no toilet paper. The young women at the till handled it perfectly, calmed the woman down, and we all carried on as if nothing happened. No, no one is taking this lightly, but we are not over reacting either.
pragmatist

What is a pragmatic person?



A pragmatic person is sensible, grounded, and practical — and doesn't expect a birthday celebration filled with magical creatures.

Stoic.

stoic

[ˈstəʊɪk]




NOUN

• a person who can endure pain or hardship without showing their feelings or complaining.
  
  

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Originally Posted by Red90

I disagree. I see most people doing a great job of doing their part and helping others. It is wonderful to see people at their best. There are always a few idiots but they are few and far between.

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Yes, the same here. As for people not isolating when they should, the only ones I know about is the English woman who went up to the Whitsundays , and the Aussie man who went to NZ. Both very foolish .

Coronavirus: Health workers helped by growing public support