Thread: Corona Virus

Originally Posted by JDNSW

Exactly. According to my calculations, using published efficacy of the vaccines and R0 numbers, I calculate that for the delta strain we need 83% of the whole population (i.e. including children) to stop accelerating spread of the virus. That of course is with no other measures.

Even modest efforts such as mask wearing and reasonable other measures such as requiring vaccination for potential superspreader events, and keeping up a bit of social distancing, reduce the effective R numbers so that the percentage required reduces. And the actual R values are certainly different for different groups, and this could be taken into account

Doherty have apparently used Monte Carlo simulation, and the numbers they have come up with are consistent with my calculations, noting that while I have used the "no transmission" case, they have gone for "acceptable deaths and cases", which explains their lower numbers. It would be interesting to see details of the numbers they have input, as well as the full distribution of their results - but that would be a lot of reading!

Thanks John. After all the information flowing in from well meaning , but perhaps not the most informed sources , it's a comfort to read informed discussion. In these uncertain times we must be circumspect in our search for the truth.

Just saw something that gives me hope in this ongoing fight, zero cases in Victoria after over 30,000 tests .

The latest from Qld. More than 50,000 tests, 16 new cases, because of the large number of health workers in quarantine due to school links, children with no symptoms or judged not to present any risk to others are allowed to quarantine at home . All community cases in the S.E. have been linked. So far, so good.

Police begin RBT-style stops, SEQ told to bunker down as active Delta cases reach 100 (inqld.com.au)


EDIT. more than 50,000 tests

Just to put things in perspective, I'll pass on a comment I read this morning in a US article on the situation in Florida and Louisiana - "Sydney's worst daily case numbers since the start of the pandemic is just another day ending in -y for even the best managed US city."

On Friday Florida had 21683 new cases ( new record). (New York, with about the same population, had 3188 on the same day). And the Florida Governor has celebrated the occasion by an executive order preventing schools in the state from mandating mask wearing.

Originally Posted by JDNSW

Just to put things in perspective, I'll pass on a comment I read this morning in a US article on the situation in Florida and Louisiana - "Sydney's worst daily case numbers since the start of the pandemic is just another day ending in -y for even the best managed US city."

On Friday Florida had 21683 new cases ( new record). (New York, with about the same population, had 3188 on the same day). And the Florida Governor has celebrated the occasion by an executive order preventing schools in the state from mandating mask wearing.

not arguing with numbers OS. Lots and Lots of dead people OS are also significantly more than here is also true. US has 371 covid deaths yesterday.

I am just editing a letter we are giving to people being vaccinated on Friday. A warning came from one government source called a P.H.N. I did chuckle as it had a letter warning from them and also a letter from Pfizer. I think only the Pfizer one had "Pfizer Noted: Available data suggest that the course of myocarditis and pericarditis following vaccination is similar to the course of myocarditis and pericarditis in general."

My inexpert reading of that is we have a warning yet if you do not have the vaccine you still probably have exactly the same risk. You have been warned???- NOTE I am NOT a Doctor happily.


"

• Myocarditis and Pericarditis

ATAGI and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ) have released joint guidance
on the risk of myocarditis and pericarditis following Pfizer vaccination following an observed risk
observed in overseas studies, especially in males under 30 years of age after the second doses.
The Pfizer Product Information has been updated to reflect this, and a letter from Pfizer advising this
change is attached for your information.
ATAGI and CSANZ emphasise that the overwhelming benefits of vaccination in protecting against
COVID-19 greatly outweigh the rare risk of these conditions, and Pfizer continues to be
recommended for all people ≥ 16 years of age who do not have any contraindications to the
vaccine, in those aged 12-15 with specific medical conditions that increase their risk of severe illness
from COVID-19, and in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 12-15.
During the consent process, all people who receive Comirnaty should be advised of the very rare risk
of myocarditis and/or pericarditis after vaccination, and should be advised of possible symptoms,
which include:


• chest pain, pressure or discomfort
• palpitations (irregular heartbeat, skipped beats or ‘fluttering’).
• syncope (fainting)
• shortness of breath
• pain with breathing.


Symptoms typically start within a few days after vaccination, and anyone experiencing symptoms
should seek prompt medical attention."

Originally Posted by JDNSW

Just to put things in perspective, I'll pass on a comment I read this morning in a US article on the situation in Florida and Louisiana - "Sydney's worst daily case numbers since the start of the pandemic is just another day ending in -y for even the best managed US city."

On Friday Florida had 21683 new cases ( new record). (New York, with about the same population, had 3188 on the same day). And the Florida Governor has celebrated the occasion by an executive order preventing schools in the state from mandating mask wearing.

Whose perspective are we looking at? That's one American trend we should never try to follow. They are having similar problems with vaccination as us, except ours is supply. The FDA is about to give the final approval for pfizer, in the hope that encourages more to get the jab. 70% of the Nations adults have been vaccinated, that's 58 % of the total. They are averaging 86,000 new infections a day, an increase in 142% in two weeks, due to delta , according to a NYT database. From the N.Y.T.

F.D.A. Aims to Give Final Approval to Pfizer Vaccine by Early Next Month - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Originally Posted by NavyDiver

not arguing with numbers OS. Lots and Lots of dead people OS are also significantly more than here is also true. US has 371 covid deaths yesterday.

I am just editing a letter we are giving to people being vaccinated on Friday. A warning came from one government source called a P.H.N. I did chuckle as it had a letter warning from them and also a letter from Pfizer. I think only the Pfizer one had "Pfizer Noted: Available data suggest that the course of myocarditis and pericarditis following vaccination is similar to the course of myocarditis and pericarditis in general."

My inexpert reading of that is we have a warning yet if you do not have the vaccine you still probably have exactly the same risk. You have been warned???- NOTE I am NOT a Doctor happily.


"

• Myocarditis and Pericarditis

ATAGI and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ) have released joint guidance
on the risk of myocarditis and pericarditis following Pfizer vaccination following an observed risk
observed in overseas studies, especially in males under 30 years of age after the second doses.
The Pfizer Product Information has been updated to reflect this, and a letter from Pfizer advising this
change is attached for your information.
ATAGI and CSANZ emphasise that the overwhelming benefits of vaccination in protecting against
COVID-19 greatly outweigh the rare risk of these conditions, and Pfizer continues to be
recommended for all people ≥ 16 years of age who do not have any contraindications to the
vaccine, in those aged 12-15 with specific medical conditions that increase their risk of severe illness
from COVID-19, and in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 12-15.
During the consent process, all people who receive Comirnaty should be advised of the very rare risk
of myocarditis and/or pericarditis after vaccination, and should be advised of possible symptoms,
which include:


• chest pain, pressure or discomfort
• palpitations (irregular heartbeat, skipped beats or ‘fluttering’).
• syncope (fainting)
• shortness of breath
• pain with breathing.


Symptoms typically start within a few days after vaccination, and anyone experiencing symptoms
should seek prompt medical attention."

My bosses son who is 19 had chest pain shortly after his 2nd Pfizer vaccination. Diagnosed as Myocarditis resulting from the Pfizer vaccination, prescribed anti-inflammatories and no strenuous exercise for a number of weeks.

Here is the New York Times coronavirus briefing. Paragraph headings such as " we are not where we expected to be", and " cutting thru the delta confusion " makes this interesting reading. Wuhan has it's first cases in over a year.

From the New York Times.[ Shouldn't be a paywall here]

"On top of the delta variant confusion , on what exactly there is to worry about it, and what to do about it, the belated realization among Americans that the coronavirus will become endemic, a problem they may be dealing with for years, is causing denial. The early focus on herd immunity as a way out of the pandemic has fuelled a sense of dissillusionment. While herd immunity through vaccine coverage may not be the magical wand they thought it to be, the long term picture for their ability to fight the pandemic is still positive."

The letter at the end in " what you're doing" is a wake up call.


Coronavirus Briefing: The Delta wave frustration (nytimes.com)

An unvaccinated man in his 20's has died from covid in Sydney. From the New Daily.

Man in his 20s dies from COVID as NSW reports another 233 local cases (thenewdaily.com.au)