Corona Virus

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Originally Posted by superquag

Well done us !

Per cent of 'what' group?
- TESTED positive ? - Symptomatic Population ? - General Population?

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Yea, sorry, a bit vague.

Death rate numbers are 4.8% of Pos. cases numbers.

Here are the updated Qld border control regulations, if you want to read for yourself what they actually say. Should answer many questions.

Queensland border closure | Queensland Government

Also, Cape York is reopening on Friday.

Lifting of Cape York travel bans brought forward to July 3
Queensland'''s Cook Shire looking forward to welcome Cape York travellers from this Friday - ABC News

thank for sharing America[bigwhistle] https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-53244997

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Originally Posted by NavyDiver

thank for sharing America[bigwhistle] Coronavirus updates: US buys up global supply of remdesivir - BBC News

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Doesn't surprise me & obviously you as well. It was bound to happen, them being materialistic bastards.

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Originally Posted by JDNSW

[snip]..How accurate you death figures are can be estimated by comparing, for example, the average mortality for each month over the years with that during the pandemic. During the pandemic we will see a rise above the normal figure. If the covid-19 attributed deaths are subtracted from this 'excess deaths' figure the residual will indicate how accurate you deaths due to covid-19 figure is. (could be higher or lower) Looking a few days ago at the figures up to the end of May suggested that the Australian figure for covid-19 deaths is pretty accurate. The same cannot be said for most other countries, with most having a very large increase in deaths during the pandemic not attributed to the pandemic. This can be because of shortage of testing (this certainly happened in Italy where a test shortage meant they were not wasted on the dead), and is seems to have happened in Florida. Russia and possibly other countries are suspected of deliberately minimising the deaths due to the pandemic.

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Was interesting to read an analysis of just this concept this morning. It may be of interest. An underestimation of 28% is touted. Puts the number of infections way way up too if the same percentage of mortality is applied to the estimated toll.

Covid 19 coronavirus: Official death toll in the US could be underestimating fatalities by 28 per cent - NZ Herald

Estimating the number of infections from the number of deaths is fraught with pitfalls. Apart from the point I made earlier that infection happens weeks if not months before a possible death, which is a serious problem when the rate of infection is changing rapidly, there is the issue that for this disease, as with many others, the fatality rate is very different in different groups, and the spread of the infection in different groups is also different.

For example, in the USA we saw a high fatality rate among the elderly in New York and New Jersey, but it needs to be questioned whether this can be transferred to where infections are booming at present in the southwest, where the peak infection rate is in 25-35 age group.

So while we expect to see a (time lagged) correlation between deaths and infections, extending this to calculate numbers is fraught with danger of getting it wrong.

Reports this morning coming out of Victoria of security guards untrained in infection control cross contaminating quarantined areas and sleeping with quarantined guests. I guess thats what you get when you employ nightclub bouncers to do the job that was done in NSW by ADF and police.....
Seems NZ doesnt have a monopoly on poor process, Windsock

Regards,
Tote

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Originally Posted by Tote

Reports this morning coming out of Victoria of security guards untrained in infection control cross contaminating quarantined areas and sleeping with quarantined guests. I guess thats what you get when you employ nightclub bouncers to do the job that was done in NSW by ADF and police.....
Seems NZ doesnt have a monopoly on poor process, Windsock

Regards,
Tote

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Yep, a mix of surprise and bemusement at the news coming out of Melb. at the moment. Seems a simultaneous occurrence of laxity, naivety and ignorance in Melbourne and Auckland. Our problem was the lack of organisation and consistent management and application of protocol and letting people out without a test. My understanding was it was aviation security companies in charge of one thing and the military in charge of another and another organisation doing something else etc. Too many components of management. This allowed too many instances of lack of discipline, inexperience and ignorance of consequences. The military has sorted that out and are now in charge of everything from Airport arrivals lounge to departure from quarantine and according to some in isolation before and after the management change, the change has been for the better. Better logistics, organisation and generally it seems everyone gets a consistent message and management. Seems the problem here was sorted and at the moment (my emphasis is with fingers crossed), we seem to have gotten away with the lapse without consequence. There are however something like 397 people who were let out of their 14-day isolation without a test that are not traceable or contactable (wrong phone numbers given on release etc) and are not coming forward for a test. There could still be ramifications yet to be picked up.

Glad to see the monopoly on this is not exclusive [biggrin] From what I gather when they are interviewed, it seems the epidemiologists and other health experts in both countries are in frequent communication so I hope the lessons learned are being heard by all who need to hear on both sides.

Later edit to post a news story: NZ can learn a lesson from Victoria: Don’t lose elimination status | Stuff.co.nz

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Originally Posted by NavyDiver

thank for sharing America[bigwhistle] https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-53244997

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Well obviously it was available for sale.