Thread: Corona Virus

Reason 2." NSW must continue lockdowns until the virus is eliminated" Dr Korshid President of the AMA.

2.'No alternative' to NSW eliminating Delta, says top medical body (msn.com)

And last, but not least the WHO " epidemiological stupidity to open too early." Edit From MSN ;

"For a lot of the World this is just getting started ", " for all of the countries of the Americas , we still have 1 million cases per week. " ," the same in Europe, we have half a million cases a week. It isn't over ".



WHO warns of ‘epidemiological stupidity’ of early Covid reopening (msn.com)

given that its still transmissible with vaccination, even if you had 100% of the population vaccinated, it would not be possible to eliminate it.

never ending lockdown

Just watched the news, on a channel that I will not name. Their headline was An Aussie returned from Canada and was not allowed to see his dying Mother . They provided grabs of the mornings press conference [ which I watched ] and completely misrepresented what was said. I can not believe the lengths the media goes to grab a headline. It's a disgrace.

Originally Posted by Eevo

given that its still transmissible with vaccination, even if you had 100% of the population vaccinated, it would not be possible to eliminate it.

never ending lockdown

Polio, smallpox, TB, Rubella, Measles? Seems you can get pretty close alongside so it becomes irrelevant.

DL

Originally Posted by Eevo

given that its still transmissible with vaccination, even if you had 100% of the population vaccinated, it would not be possible to eliminate it.

never ending lockdown

Incorrect reasoning.

While it is still possible to transmit an infection for a patient that is vaccinated, the effective R0 drops to below 1, simply because most of those vaccinated will not be infected. Each infected patient infects, on average, less than one other when enough of the others are vaccinated. If 100% of the population is vaccinated, the pandemic, in these circumstances, ends, as the virus will gradually die out without any other action. In real life, there will never be 100% vaccination, but despite this having a sufficiently large proportion vaccinated will stop the pandemic, even if vaccinated patients still can transmit the virus. The percentage required depends simply on how infectious the disease is - for the Delta variant, the figure looks like about 80%. Is this achievable? For measles (far more infectious than covid), as an example, with a figure required of 95%, it has proved possible to effectively eliminate the disease from most of the population for most of the time (with revivals only happening in populations with a lot of antivaxxers). There is no reason why the same is impossible for this infection.

Originally Posted by JDNSW

Incorrect reasoning.

While it is still possible to transmit an infection for a patient that is vaccinated, the effective R0 drops to below 1, simply because most of those vaccinated will not be infected. Each infected patient infects, on average, less than one other when enough of the others are vaccinated. If 100% of the population is vaccinated, the pandemic, in these circumstances, ends, as the virus will gradually die out without any other action. In real life, there will never be 100% vaccination, but despite this having a sufficiently large proportion vaccinated will stop the pandemic, even if vaccinated patients still can transmit the virus. The percentage required depends simply on how infectious the disease is - for the Delta variant, the figure looks like about 80%. Is this achievable? For measles (far more infectious than covid), as an example, with a figure required of 95%, it has proved possible to effectively eliminate the disease from most of the population for most of the time (with revivals only happening in populations with a lot of antivaxxers). There is no reason why the same is impossible for this infection.

i think i can agree with your reasoning, however i would be keen to know if other disease such as smallpox, polio and measles are transmittable when vaccinated. i didn't believe they were and that covid was the exception. which might mean your reasoning is not valid, as covid isnt playing by the same rules.

Originally Posted by Eevo

i think i can agree with your reasoning, however i would be keen to know if other disease such as smallpox, polio and measles are transmittable when vaccinated. i didn't believe they were and that covid was the exception. which might mean your reasoning is not valid, as covid isnt playing by the same rules.

I think that John's point is that there never is 100% vaccination, but there is a level that, if reached, will see the infections become negligible for various infectious agents, depending on their infectiousness.

(Frank Zappa couldn't have said that any better)

DL