Are we prepared to accept 25,000 deaths as the price of reopening at 80% of adults vaccinated? I don't think so.
Ending lockdowns with 80% vaccinated could cause 25,000 Australian deaths, new modelling suggests | Coronavirus | The Guardian
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Are we prepared to accept 25,000 deaths as the price of reopening at 80% of adults vaccinated? I don't think so.
Ending lockdowns with 80% vaccinated could cause 25,000 Australian deaths, new modelling suggests | Coronavirus | The Guardian
That may be a little harsh. Delta got out of control in NSW, but it wasn't a deliberate act by the NSW government trying to prove their philosophy worked the best. It did work, with Alpha. Delta is a different beast. But because delta is a different beast, the Doherty report mandating 70% of adults vaccinated as the start point for opening up is proving to be a flawed concept. Overseas , Israel and now the UK have found it just doesn't work that way. Now the " best health advice " overseas is saying 90 % of the Population vaccinated [ children included] is the magic number. Does any one really know? The whole World seems to be playing catch up with delta.Quote:
Originally Posted by trout1105
I just would like to have a word about the border problems with Qld and the Tweed. I think the problem is in the nomenclature. Saying they want to shift the border south is of course going to cause consternation in NSW, with the inference being NSW can't control their border. No government can tolerate that. What they really mean is the check points must be moved south, in order to allow the Tweed residents direct access to their jobs in Qld. Give the NSW Police direct control over those checkpoints, with assistance from the Qld Police if requested , or better still use those ADF members swanning around Western Sydney, under NSW Police supervision, and employ them doing an actual worthwhile job.
The Qld government, with NSW's permission could set up mobile testing in strategic spots in the Tweed, and next to them mobile vaccination points. Then mandate every worker crossing into Qld must have at least the first jab, and must have a negative test result. Qld Police would still have the responsibility of deciding who crosses into Qld, the people from the Tweed get to go to work, and NSW still has sovereignty over their border. In other words , putting it crudely, no one has a bigger dick than any one else and peoples sensitivities that make them readily offended and shocked can be met. Why is it so hard? Why are governments still playing politics with this pandemic in Australia?
So much for no politics in this thread! …very difficult given the pandemic is so politicised!
The reality is that the Corona Virus is not the slightest bit interested in politics and those playing politics with this pandemic will lose.
In Israel it’s blindingly obvious that 78% of eligible population vaccinated (60% of whole population), which is comparative to the current Australian target, is not enough for herd immunity.
We have a very long and potentially disastrous road ahead under current policy settings.
COVID cases are rising in highly vaccinated Israel. But it doesn't mean Australia should give up and 'live with' the virus
Bob, go back circa 1901!Quote:
Originally Posted by bob10
Can I just go back to the 70's? And know what I know now? [bigsmile1]Quote:
Originally Posted by Saitch
Even the Doherty plan says there would be restrictions with high case numbers. It seems the narrative is being taken out of the hands of Health experts, and hijacked by politicians.Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscoMick
I think once vaccines have been given to every one who wants one, then yes society will accept a higher death rate if it is seen as impacting primarily on those who choose not to get vaccinated.Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscoMick
Very much like we accept high death rates from smoking (and many other preventable causes) as we rationalise this as being about personal choice.
At some point the public will decide (not the politicians) and the increasing levels of protesting and defiance is a sign that this is already starting.
News from Qld. The Government is preparing for the worst, with moves to secure food supplies and vaccinate workers. Workers at food distribution plants and meatworks are being targeted for vaccinations. When major super market chains were unable to promptly deliver groceries to thousands of people in home quarantine , the State Government had to utilise the " Care Army ". The Government has already prioritised food distribution workers for vaccines, but the take up has been low. With additional Pfizer vaccines now coming into QLD, they will take the jabs to 28 food distribution centres and meat processing plants, rather than wait for workers to make an appointment themselves.
Qld Health has already moved to address weaknesses in vaccination coverage by moving more jabs to border towns, establishing new hubs in Logan and Caboolture, targeting first nations people in urban areas, in addition to mobile units in Cape York. Qld Health has been able to halve the vaccination waiting list, but more residents must register for vaccination, now they have more Pfizer.
Qld prepares for the worst, moves to secure food supplies, vaccinate workers (inqld.com.au)
Quote:
Originally Posted by TonyC
That is a very good question. I am not aware of any research in this area.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Homestar
Will they? Will their personal perceptions of the vaccination prevent them from being vaccinated. Again there is no research into why people are declining the vaccination. Fear of the unknown is a real and debilitating emotion. At this stage of the pandemic getting vaccinated is a 'here and now' health risk. Fear of catching Covid is a distant concept so a blind eye is turned to it. Why? From day one there have been multiple changes to vaccination practice. The constantly changing rhetoric on TV and the multiple calls to get vaccinated can and does cause fear, confusion and distrust. Politicians are generally not trusted when it comes to individual personal health matters.
Quote:
Originally Posted by trout1105
Medical reasons for not getting vaccinated are not confined solely to physical conditions. Mental/psychological conditions are a real and debilitating illness. They can and do prevent sufferers from participating in many aspects of life. Fear is a huge emotion so being injected with a new drug that is known to kill will be too much for many.
How this may be overcome is a challenge media personalities is not the answer.but haranguing by politicians, Epidemiologists.
Some politicians, academics and the PM are promoting 70% or 80% vaccination rate as being the objective for the end of restrictions etc. That 20% of us will be unvaccinated and liable to get Covid doesn't seem too bad at first glance.
But......has anyone really thought this through?
Australia has a population of 25 million. The unvaccinated number of people given 80% vaccinations is 20% which in reality is 5 million unvaccinated people. For comparison Victoria has a total population of just on 7 million. million.
If these 5 million people suffer a Covid death rate of only 5% then this 20% means that 250,000 people will die.
If only 2% die then it means that 100,000 people will die.
I am amazed and horrified that this attrition rate seems acceptable to those leading the country at all levels.
I have not projected numbers for hospitalisations and Intensive care/ventilator use but as you can see from the above examples the numbers will be mindbogglingly overwhelming.
That point is moot. Their is no personal choice in not having access to a vaccine. Society will not accept the death of children unnecessarily. I know the point of view of some one who has suffered through lockdown and restrictions time after time could be clouded by the experience, and the frustrations felt would run deep. But opening up too early under a flawed plan would be a huge mistake.Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscoDB