
Originally Posted by
zedcars
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I am a firm believer that urban and suburbanites will be buying these cars like hot cakes very soon.
Dennis
zedcars
Would be nice to think so (assuming electric vehicles, not hybrids), and it may happen. But there are severe hurdles to overcome. The first one is range - barring serious breakthroughs, this means they cannot be used for long distance travel, which may suit many urban dwellers who never travel anywhere except locally or where public transport is available. But most of Australia's minor towns and villages have poor or no public transport. This implies that urban dwellers need one electric and one other, perhaps hybrid, which may work for many people, but not for many others. It would help if fixed costs (registration, insurance etc) could be moved to usage costs, to encourage ownership of special purpose vehicles.
The second major problem is cost. At present, and for the foreseeable future, it is impossible to make a financial case for using an electric vehicle. Sure, the fuel and possibly maintenance costs may be lower, but these are swamped by the cost of ownership. Even for high mileage private cars (and no electric vehicle will be high mileage without solving the range problem) the cost of capital, opportunity cost, and standing charges represent about two thirds of the running costs. Because of the high initial cost, the two largest numbers, cost of capital and opportunity cost, are much higher for electric vehicles. While it is possible that change to mass production will bring the cost down (after all, as you say, these are basically simpler than IC engine vehicles) this needs much higher demand than at present, and this is unlikely to happen until the cost comes down. A bit of a chicken and egg situation.
A third major problem is that it seems unlikely that the widespread use of electric vehicles would actually reduce emissions, which is seen as a major intent of moving to electric vehicles. This is because most electricity in Australia is generated by burning coal. While large, modern coal fired power stations have an efficiency comparable with that of a modern small diesel, suggesting that the electric vehicle would be better by the proportion of non-coal power, this ignores the very real losses in efficiency in distribution of the power and the charge/discharge cycle of the vehicle battery. A separate related issue is the effect of changes in consumption patterns and indeed overall electric power use would have on both the efficiency and scale of the power grid.
The same comments that apply to electric cars also apply to hydrogen vehicles, except that they do not have the range limitation but neither do they have the inherent simplicity and reliability of electric vehicles. And it must be emphasised that hydrogen is not a primary source of energy - like electricity, it needs to be produced from a primary source of energy, with an efficiency that is very roughly the same (around 10-30%). As with the electric vehicle, it has the advantage of zero emissions at the point of use.
From a city pollution point of view the use of either electric or hydrogen vehicles has an overwhelming advantage - but then so does an efficient public transport system that would take most commuting cars off the road - and would probably cost less overall, and make cities a far better place to live.
John
John
JDNSW
1986 110 County 3.9 diesel
1970 2a 109 2.25 petrol
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