Thats why it will never happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscoMick
Printable View
Thats why it will never happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscoMick
How much do you want to put on that ?Quote:
Originally Posted by scarry
Yes it could, but I don't think it will, Lots of scenarios could play out. Once people understand ICE cars are no longer going to be made they will want to get into EV whilst their ICE car still has some value. The market will be flooded with them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homestar
Though the market will be full of cheap crude I think Petrol and diesel will be taxed even more as a disincentive to keep using it.
The other option is converting your Petrol car to NH3 or run on straight Hydrogen, or wood gas if you can avoid the EPA. ... Diesels have no future at all .
It really did flip at diesel gate didn't it. Petrol was the villain for Co2 emissions, biodiesel was looking like it could reduce particulate matter and NO2 , and get closer to carbon neutral. But even bioDiesel probably won't bounce diesel back from the gate scandal.... I can't see a future for Diesel in populated areas.Quote:
Originally Posted by goingbush
Petrol for passenger cars will no doubt go too. Biofuels might serve for commercial use but unlikely at the servo. It would be a brave move to ban combustion outside of cities when current lithium battery EVs are a massive downgrade for interstate travel!
I'm currently electric around town, and diesel on tow trips out of the city. I can't improve on that unless something better than lithium comes along. 100kwh 700kg battery packs just to carry passengers in a light vehicle is a joke. Especially when you have to slam the life out of them with 'superchargers' just to try and keep your road trip on a reasonable schedule .
There has to be a better way. Perhaps a leap in battery tech, but until then Hybrid battery/hydrogen and battery/biofuel could do the distance.
So perhaps the future could bring cars that are forced to run in zero emission only mode when inside a city limit, but able to switch to higher energy density fuels when outside city boundaries.
So those that own diesel vehicles in Australia will still have access to diesel, cheaply, for At least for a couple of decades or not longer.Quote:
Originally Posted by goingbush
Cheers
Diesel fuel is likely to be around for a long time for road haulage, but also for earthmoving, agricultural and other applications.
Just to take one example of where EVs have nothing even remotely on the horizon. We have had throughout NSW and eastern Victoria for the last couple of months thousands of fire units, often operating close to 24 hours non-stop, with only an hour or two a day for refuelling. And operating in an area with no electricity infrastructure for weeks at a time. And required at times to travel long distances and arriving ready to operate, with only minutes to refuel along the way.
Similar thoughts apply to all military vehicles.
I see no prospect of this sort of vehicle being replaced by EVs, or for that matter changing to hydrogen. I can't say it will never happen, but I don't see it happening in the next twenty years at least.
Yes from a purely personal viewpoint I have recently purchased a modern diesel and like the idea of holding onto it for 15 to 20 years. And the truth is there will be many diesels sold over the next 15 years plus in Australia and diesel will be cheap enough for many years more. By then battery tech and other tech will be so good that even long range touring in Oz will easily happen with EV.
Cheers
My left nut if you want.[bighmmm]Quote:
Originally Posted by goingbush
Its pretty easy to see its just another politician grabbing votes,feathering his own nest,and he won't be around in 15yrs time anyway.
Sure we have to move forward,but in a sensible way.
The reality is EV's are a major inconvenience for some,whether technology will change to make them more suitable for many,who knows.
There has also been no massive advancement in EV technology in the last year or so.
Some company's have said they have this and that,but don't have anything in the market place,in fact in Aus, the biggest new vehicle vehicle sellers are utes,and there isn't even a hybrid model available,yet alone an EV in the range,they are years away.
For others they may suit,and will probably use them,which will be great.
To go from a UK car market that has sales of around 2%Ev to 100% EV over 15 yrs,in reality, will be virtually impossible.
Then there will be the commercial vehicle market,heavy vehicle market,earthmoving equipment,that will no doubt continue with ICE's,so the fuel will still be available.Diesel will not just disappear.
And,Evo,going from horse and cart to ICE was a massive advancement in convenience,where going from ICE to EV is the opposite for many,while EV's are in their current form.
Anyway,we will have to wait and see,a lot can happen,and no doubt will over 15 yrs.
Paul , they said the same at turn of the Twentieth Century, Horse & Buggies were virtually replaced with Motor Cars in 10-15 years & they had little Petrol station infrastructure . History repeats itself & change is implemented a lot faster now days.
The EV Transition Could Mirror The Horse To Model T Transition | CleanTechnica
Gee the EV proponents are working themselves into a lather these days.
first I think the ban in UK will not include PHEVs so there will still lots of ICE cars around. Second with the exception of Tesla Model 3 , buyers are voting with their feet and sales of EVs declined last year by 8%.
Third it is fancifulto think that ICE cars will not be produced. What about India, Africa, South America, Australia, China , and even the USA.
Europe is Europe and has a unique set of circumstances with short distances and crowded cities .
The UK fits 26 times into Australia and 6 times into Queensland. It is tiny.
The EV time may be coming but not as quickly as the proponents dream of.
for example in WW 2 the German army was mostly horse driven and that was 40 years after the invention of ICE cars.
I was thinking a few days ago what happened to autonomous trucks driving in close convoy along the highways by now.lol Been a bit of a reality check there.
regards
PhilipA