EV general discussion

**JDNSW** · 11th February 2020, 02:42 PM

EVs have been around for something like 130 years. They were quite the thing in the period 1890-1910 for town cars. Quiet, elegant, no gear changes, and you don't have to crank them.

But they were always short range and very expensive, and slow.

Through the decades since then, they have maintained a tiny trickle of vehicles, mostly special purpose, or built in special circumstances, such as the EV built M. Gregoire of Tracta fame for his personal use in Paris during the occupation.

They have been used for a long time in underground mines, and other locations where zero emissions are a major advantage.

And from time to time, they have been put forward as the next thing to replace what we have come to think of as a 'normal' car. Over the last twenty years advances in battery technology, driven largely by portable consumer electronics such as smartphones and laptops have meant that they are becoming practical for a lot of uses, particularly for urban commuting.

They still share one feature that has characterised them since the 1890s - they are very expensive. But range can be adequate for many purposes, and they are no longer necessarily slow.

Because of the doubtful market, existing manufacturers have been unenthusiastic about them, but pressure from some governments has more or less forced them into action, at least for some manufacturers, and the unexpected success of Tesla has probably frightened some of them. Most, if not all industry analysts would have predicted ten years ago that Tesla would have been bankrupt within five years.

Not really anything to do with the fact that they produce exclusively electric cars - but simply because starting a new car manufacturing business from scratch, especially with a mass market in mind, is, on past history, almost certain to end in bankruptcy. Lets face it - most motor manufacturers over the years have failed, either just going out of business or merging to stay alive. And you can count on one hand (and probably one finger) the number of car companies worldwide that have consistently been in the black for the last twenty years without either heavy protection or massive subsidy or both.

Building cars is difficult, very expensive, and very risky.

**manic** · 11th February 2020, 03:45 PM

No stopping it now. EV sales are on the up .

More and more EVs to hit the market, prices will come down.

Right now Tesla's are the poster cars for EV tech. Like the iPhone, overpriced ... But many cheaper options are just around the corner. A second hand market will follow.

Watch what happens when EVs become mainstream cool and then affordable!

Old age people driving dinosaur combustion around town will be scoffed at by a growing mass of self declared 'smart' people , who refuse to grow old or behind the times. They will be grinning from ear to ear as they silently accelerate off the lights leaving the old farts lagging in their rear view mirror.

None of the new wave EV drivers will give a flying **** about how it all comes together. They will be on it - pay, plug and play.

Some old farts will find it unbearable and move out of the cities beyond the range of the new tech elite. Most will find that they can afford to change their minds and jump on the bandwagon.

I'm not saying the combustion engine is dead, just that if you haven't got an EV right now, you will soon be able to park one alongside old smokey!

**grey_ghost** · 11th February 2020, 03:48 PM

It’s great news - the more people that buy EV’s, leaves the more petrol for us oldies

Especially the V8 driving ones...

**Homestar** · 11th February 2020, 03:58 PM

Originally Posted by manic

No stopping it now. EV sales are on the up .

More and more EVs to hit the market, prices will come down.

Right now Tesla's are the poster cars for EV tech. Like the iPhone, overpriced ... But many cheaper options are just around the corner. A second hand market will follow.

Watch what happens when EVs become mainstream cool and then affordable!

Old age people driving dinosaur combustion around town will be scoffed at by a growing mass of self declared 'smart' people , who refuse to grow old or behind the times. They will be grinning from ear to ear as they silently accelerate off the lights leaving the old farts lagging in their rear view mirror.

None of the new wave EV drivers will give a flying **** about how it all comes together. They will be on it - pay, plug and play.

Some old farts will find it unbearable and move out of the cities beyond the range of the new tech elite. Others will find that they can afford to change their minds and jump on the bandwagon.

I'm not saying the combustion engine is dead, just that if you haven't got an EV right now, you will soon be able to park one alongside old smokey!

I think EV’s are cool now, just anything but affordable. Not sure how long it will be before they are actually worth laying down money for, I wouldn’t touch a second hand one I shouldn’t think just due to mind boggling stupid replacement battery prices if required.

**manic** · 11th February 2020, 04:28 PM

Originally Posted by Homestar

I wouldn’t touch a second hand one I shouldn’t think just due to mind boggling stupid replacement battery prices if required.

As battery packs move over 10 years old, I think there will be enough examples on the road to put a fair value on second hand EVs. Tools to measure battery degredation will be used to help determine fair value.

But I agree, for starters many will be apprehensive buying any EV with an out of warranty battery pack.

But there will be good second hand EVs for the well researched. Many town EVs will be clocking up around 5000-8000km a year so I'm sure many of these battery packs will serve for 10+ years without battery change.

If you look to the USA, Tesla's that have been on the road for 7+ years can be found with 90+% of original capacity. There are Tesla's with over 250,000 KMs on the clock that have 90+% of original capacity.

And then consider the old Tesla batteries are not the best lithium composition for longevity. Other battery techs such as LTO can be flogged alot harder for a lot longer, 2.5x more cycles - albeit with an energy density trade off.

So there will be some very desirable second hand models eventually. And confidence will grow.

**Homestar** · 11th February 2020, 05:24 PM

I would have thought the around town battery packs would be in worse condition as they have a limited amount of charge/discharge cycles?

Not saying you’re wrong, but I certainly wouldn’t be an early adopter, glad there are those that will and will lead the way long term though.

**manic** · 11th February 2020, 05:34 PM

Around town drivers will top up at home on a domestic slow charger. The charge cycles will be small and advice will be to charge to less than 100% (only as much as you need for the commute). Frequent ultra fast charges to 100% are the killer . So EVs used to travel distance between superchargers would be more likely to suffer advanced battery degredation.

-------

I would like to see EV manufacturers move away from these rediculously huge batteries in the near future. If they don't, every one in the neighbourhood will have one on their driveways for a bit of fun.

These ludicrously massive lithium battery packs should have been chucked off the drawing board... But Elon Musk knows how to sell a vision and has his eyes on the prize. I reckon he's pretty much got it bagged now.

Lithium EVs on the face of it should fail, but I was sure the iPad was going to be a flop and near enough everyone bought one of those. All those iPads must be gathering dust or piled up in landfill by now....

The EV will not be a fad, the electric motor will rule, but it looks to me as if lithium batteries was Elons shortcut to market. A lot of energy will go into making them, and then there is a good chance they will be quickly superceded by something altogether more efficient.

Green hydrogen anytime soon? I hope.

**goingbush** · 11th February 2020, 09:05 PM

Been over 2 years now since the DIY conversion, only 10,500km but Ive noticed no battery degradation at all. Should not expect so either as the Cells are claimed good for 2000 cycles at 80% DOD, I've only had about 200 charge cycles at 50% DOD, at that rate the batteries will see me out. They are actually getting better as time goes on, for the first 18months there was noticeable battery sag as they got toward 50% now I dont experience any sag. They are about 5% more efficient in Summer vs winter. Basic as conversions get, no battery thermal management .

DiscoMick · 11th February 2020, 09:16 PM

Nissan Leaf is the top selling EV but Hyundai is moving fast.

**Homestar** · 12th February 2020, 06:29 AM

Nissan stitched a customer in Canberra up on a replacement battery pack recently for their leaf - got them very bad press... Car makers have to step up with customer service if they want to sell more.

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