Autonomous Vehicles

**JDNSW** · 23rd March 2018, 03:31 PM

Originally Posted by tact

Cuts both ways... cannot say autonomous is better, cannot say its worse.... the sample size on the autonomous mob's side, one death in 3 million miles, is too small for now. (i.e. lets wait for the 100th death, look at the autonomous miles travelled, then see if autonomous vehicles are better at killing people than human drivers)

Yes, the data set for autonomous cars is small, but simply looking at the accident rate for human drivers shows that the real failure rate is very low. And is very low compared to almost any software, so it is going to take an extremely large amount of testing for anyone to be confident of the safety of autonomous vehicles.

This accident has prompted me to wonder about how the AV can deal with some perfectly normal situations that a human driver does without conscious thought. Driving into town this morning, I slow automatically as we approach where I know there is a bad bump. How does the AV identify that? One stretch has open country on the left and there is thick bush on the right, so, since it is overcast, fairly early in the morning, and the roos will still be out in the open country, I slow because as they hear me coming they will make a high speed dash for the bush. How does the AV do that? How does it know that when coming to my front gate it opens out, so it has to stop far enough before the gate. For that matter, how does it navigate on the roads that are unmapped and on my driveway? How does it know whether I want to park in the carport or the shed?

For that matter, can it identify whether that is a roo by the roadside that is likely to cut across in front at the last moment or is just a bush?

**Zeros** · 23rd March 2018, 05:54 PM

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

You'll just call Uber and the vehicle will arrive, minus a driver.

...so...would you get in?

**Zeros** · 23rd March 2018, 05:59 PM

Originally Posted by JDNSW

Yes, the data set for autonomous cars is small, but simply looking at the accident rate for human drivers shows that the real failure rate is very low. And is very low compared to almost any software, so it is going to take an extremely large amount of testing for anyone to be confident of the safety of autonomous vehicles.

This accident has prompted me to wonder about how the AV can deal with some perfectly normal situations that a human driver does without conscious thought. Driving into town this morning, I slow automatically as we approach where I know there is a bad bump. How does the AV identify that? One stretch has open country on the left and there is thick bush on the right, so, since it is overcast, fairly early in the morning, and the roos will still be out in the open country, I slow because as they hear me coming they will make a high speed dash for the bush. How does the AV do that? How does it know that when coming to my front gate it opens out, so it has to stop far enough before the gate. For that matter, how does it navigate on the roads that are unmapped and on my driveway? How does it know whether I want to park in the carport or the shed?

For that matter, can it identify whether that is a roo by the roadside that is likely to cut across in front at the last moment or is just a bush?

I hear you John. Most of those scenarios will require you to take over and drive the vehicle.

...so what does autonomy actually mean? Fascinating.

**trog** · 23rd March 2018, 06:01 PM

It would be an interesting sight to see two autonomous vehicles in a situation similar to the post by roverlord. Which one would back down ? Maybe they could argue it out with Voices similar to the late prof. Hawking ?

**cuppabillytea** · 24th March 2018, 10:01 PM

Originally Posted by Zeros

...so what does autonomy actually mean? Fascinating.

It means it will do whatever it wants. Fascinating indeed.

All very good points by John too.
How will the build intuition into them?
How will they operate in a human rich environment without being able to make moral and ethical choices?

**Zeros** · 24th March 2018, 10:42 PM

Originally Posted by cuppabillytea

It means it will do whatever it wants. Fascinating indeed.

All very good points by John too.
How will the build intuition into them?
How will they operate in a human rich environment without being able to make moral and ethical choices?

They wont be able to. Hence no such thing as an autonomous vehicle.

By the way cupoabillutea I’m not a Luddite. Technology can be fantastic. Looking forward to the electric Defender, etc. BUT there are so many issues with autonomous vehicles I simply don’t believe they’ll ever be reality. Jon has merely highlighted the tip of the iceberg.

Theres simply no way I’d get in an autonomous Uber. It’s like these people who are proponents of autonomous machines think everyone lives in a grid-locked city!

**cuppabillytea** · 24th March 2018, 10:46 PM

Originally Posted by Zeros

They wont be able to. Hence no such thing as an autonomous vehicle.

By the way cupoabillutea I’m not a Luddite. Technology can be fantastic. Looking forward to the electric Defender, etc. BUT there are so many issues with autonomous vehicles I simply don’t believe they’ll ever be reality. Jon has merely highlighted the tip of the iceberg.

Theres simply no way I’d get in an autonomous Uber. It’s like these people who are proponents of autonomous machines think everyone lives in a grid-locked city!

Exactly.

**cripesamighty** · 25th March 2018, 02:30 AM

I don’t think any of the autonomous car manufacturers have released how they have incorporated ethical questions in their algorithms. Also, will the code all be written with the same parameters by all the manufacturers and then legislated the same?

So, do you hit the kid, or miss the kid and possibly injure the occupants..... Many scenarios will present a big, big can of worms and they really needs to be addressed satisfactorily first.

**Homestar** · 25th March 2018, 04:02 AM

Originally Posted by Zeros

They wont be able to. Hence no such thing as an autonomous vehicle.

By the way cupoabillutea I’m not a Luddite. Technology can be fantastic. Looking forward to the electric Defender, etc. BUT there are so many issues with autonomous vehicles I simply don’t believe they’ll ever be reality. Jon has merely highlighted the tip of the iceberg.

Theres simply no way I’d get in an autonomous Uber. It’s like these people who are proponents of autonomous machines think everyone lives in a grid-locked city!

Most do, and that is of course what is driving the technology. I thing saying it will never happen is a bit like saying we'll never walk on the moon or run a 4 minute mile. What seems impossible to some is the goal others strive towards.

**vnx205** · 25th March 2018, 06:46 AM

Originally Posted by Zeros

I hear you John. Most of those scenarios will require you to take over and drive the vehicle.

...so what does autonomy actually mean? Fascinating.

Not so different from a driving aid that a lot of people now take for granted.

Does anyone use their cruise control 100% of the time?

I don't own a vehicle fitted with one, but I would have thought that most people use them when they are on the open road, but still need to apply their foot to the accelerator, brake and possibly clutch when they are driving into their garage or negotiating the supermarket carpark.

Some of the people I know speak very highly of he advantages of having cruise control, but there are times it doesn't help and needs to be turned off or overridden.

Surely a similar attitude to autonomous vehicles would be sensible. There are times and places where it will be useful and there are times and places where it would be madness to expect it to cope.

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