Thread: Big storm and no power in SA

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

Yep, the numbers are clear in that example.
In our case I expect the numbers to be even better when I do them next year because we already have solar, so we will just be augmenting it with more panels, batteries and upgraded inverters. Panel and inverter costs have already fallen dramatically and lithium battery costs are also going down rapidly as production increases, so it's all good.
This is an example of technological advances giving consumers more freedom, which is the way it should be.

Not sure which way i will go with batteries, gel is proven and i have had great success with them, good value for money, then lithium, well its relatively new and not as proven, and a lot more $$$, so will see what's available when it comes time.
As for inverters, i will be only using selectronics, as i know my way around them, aussie made aussie company and great back up support.

I recently had to have my stand-alone system replaced after 22 years following a lightning strike. The new system (using gel batteries and Selectronics electronics, same as the old one) is nominally equivalent. In practice it is a lot better, mainly because the big reduction in cost of solar panels meant while there are the same number of panels, each panel is three times the output. In addition, the charge controllers are MPPT ones, meaning that unlike the old system they charge to some extent even in dim light. This means the batteries will almost always be recharged fully every day, extending their life, and allowing, at least in sunny periods, a lot more power use available.

However! Perhaps to some extent because it was an insurance job, undoubtedly not done 'on the cheap' (but the original was not either), the cost was around double what it was twenty-two years ago. Batteries are no cheaper, although possibly a bit better, and certainly lower maintenance, solar panels are a lot cheaper, as I said, but electronics are much more expensive, and labour costs and costs of compliance are way up.

It will be interesting to see if Lithium batteries show dramatic reductions in cost, but I see no real prospect of their having anything like the same sort of reduction that we have seen in panels, for example. The cost of electronics has gone up largely because of the introduction of more bells and whistles together with more regulation. You can certainly get cheaper electronics, but in my view, for a system like this you really need reliability, and skimping on this would seem to be counterproductive. And similarly if you employ a fly-by-night installer!

It will be interesting to see if Lithium batteries show dramatic reductions in cost, but I see no real prospect of their having anything like the same sort of reduction that we have seen in panels, for example

I keep on hearing from posters on this forum that Lithium batteries are coming down in cost.
This is undoubtedly true to the teeny little ones that add up to a Tesla power pack, but I have seen NO evidence of price reductions for the type of batteries used for big capacity solar installations in Australia , ie 12 and 24 volt. A 100amp 12volt is still at least $1000 up to about $1900 as it has been for several years. I wait in vain to try one.

Someone opined that this was because they were bought in USD. Well that only works in the short term as it only a medium of exchange between 2 other currencies EG Yuan and AUD. ( This was my career for 20 years)

If the USD goes up against the Yuan then the seller gets more Yuan than he anticipated and sooner or later someone will undercut him in a competitive environment.

So I agree that solar MAY give more reductions but I am sure I read somewhere that solar is now quite high on the marginal cost vs benefit curve ie it is becoming mature technology, except maybe for a next week/year breakthrough.eg printed solar panels which they don't tell you only last 6 months at present.

Regards Philip A

Originally Posted by PhilipA

I keep on hearing from posters on this forum that Lithium batteries are coming down in cost.
This is undoubtedly true to the teeny little ones that add up to a Tesla power pack, but I have seen NO evidence of price reductions for the type of batteries used for big capacity solar installations in Australia , ie 12 and 24 volt. A 100amp 12volt is still at least $1000 up to about $1900 as it has been for several years. I wait in vain to try one.

Someone opined that this was because they were bought in USD. Well that only works in the short term as it only a medium of exchange between 2 other currencies EG Yuan and AUD. ( This was my career for 20 years)

If the USD goes up against the Yuan then the seller gets more Yuan than he anticipated and sooner or later someone will undercut him in a competitive environment.

So I agree that solar MAY give more reductions but I am sure I read somewhere that solar is now quite high on the marginal cost vs benefit curve ie it is becoming mature technology, except maybe for a next week/year breakthrough.eg printed solar panels which they don't tell you only last 6 months at present.

Regards Philip A

Even at $1,900 if you take everything into account, they are good value IMO in some applications where weight is at a premium - like vans, etc that have high demand on their ELV systems and don't use powered sites very often.

Take my existing setup - 2 x 100AH Full River lead acid batteries - nearly $400 each retail (although I got mine much cheaper, but we can use that as an example). So, I have $800 worth of batteries already and there's a lot of us out there with similar setups. The Lithium 100Ah batteries can be discharged to a lower level than a lead acid battery and recover so a 100Ah Lithium actually can give nearly twice the usuable capacity of a lead acid battery, so now you only need 1 Lithium to keep up with 2 lead acids.

You will need a different battery management system and charger to look after it so add a few hundred there as well, but still very good value overall if you look at the entire system as a whole and not just the purchase price. Remember too that their life is vastly longer than a lead acid too, so 10 years plus out of one would not be uncommon.

Add to that the weight saving reduces from nearly 60KG with my 2 Full Rivers down to under 15KG for 1 Lithium - Huge improvement on my van which sits just under GTM - I can throw in a couple more slabs of beer....

Having said all that, if you only have light off grid power needs for your caravan or camper, it's a lot to pay when a small 50 to 80AH lead acid and a 100 watt solar panel would do the trick, but for someone like myself who only ever free camps - up to a week at a time in one spot running my caravan, all charging needs for multiple devices, Engel to keep the beer really cold unlike the gas powered unit in the van, fans overnight on hot evenings, an hour or 2 of TV a day, etc they make sense. My 200AH's of batteries and 240 watts of solar can keep up with all of this, so 1 x Litium would do for me.

When my current lead acid batteries go to god, I'll be lashing out on a good lithium unit - I'll keep you posted as it won't be for a few years yet I wouldn't imagine.

Not for eveyone no, but not as bad value as many think when everything is taken into account and used in the right application.

Tesla's 'teeny little" cells are designed to be cheap to manufacture, cheap to assemble into packs and easy to manage thermally as well as long lasting.

Tesla is starting Model 3 battery cell production at Gigafactory 1 ‘right now’ | Electrek

12V storage batteries won't see the economies of scale kicking in any time soon so as long as there's a ready market for them they'll stay relatively expensive.

Originally Posted by bee utey

Tesla's 'teeny little" cells are designed to be cheap to manufacture, cheap to assemble into packs and easy to manage thermally as well as long lasting.

Tesla is starting Model 3 battery cell production at Gigafactory 1 ‘right now’ | Electrek

12V storage batteries won't see the economies of scale kicking in any time soon so as long as there's a ready market for them they'll stay relatively expensive.

Nickel Manganese Cobalt and Nickel Cobalt Aluminum batteries.
Reminds me of the Mercedes AA Class ad getting around.

What of the Lithium ion batteries everybody keeps banging on about?

Originally Posted by Mick_Marsh

Nickel Manganese Cobalt and Nickel Cobalt Aluminum batteries.
Reminds me of the Mercedes AA Class ad getting around.

What of the Lithium ion batteries everybody keeps banging on about?

If you cared you could have looked this up and discovered that both types are subspecies of lithium batteries. But no.

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For those other people still interested in learning about new stuff:

Types of Lithium-ion Batteries – Battery University

I recently did some rough comparisons of AGM vs lithium battery setups for a future caravan and the lithiums were about twice as expensive, but lithium production is only starting so I expect the cost to fall significantly over a couple of years. Their much lower weight is already a big advantage.