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Yes - but luxury vehicles represent a tiny proportion of the worldwide market (not quite as tiny a proportion of the $), and are the obvious target for a new paradigm in any market - again, the obvious comparison is the mobile phone, but here most of the phones sold worldwide are cheap android phones, not iPhones.Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscoMick
And the USA is only one market, albeit a very important one.
3 to 5 years yes I think you’re right. With the big players releasing cars this year - like Hyundai with the Ioniq, it’s only a matter of time but costs still need to drop dramatically IMO. The Ioniq is twice the price of a base model I30 with the exact same spec level, so buying one now is still a luxury purchase that most people can’t afford.
I’d love one, but at nearly $50K well out of my price range whereas a mid spec I30 isn’t at under $30K. Those that jump early will be hit with massive depreciation as each new model will be cheaper as years roll on.
And what will battery prices drop to? They’ve fallen quite dramatically and consistently for many years now, but they still need to be under $100/kwh - which Tesla is leading the way on, and they claim next year for a battery pack at this price, but for most manufacturers this is still a few years off at least. With batteries priced at this level, I think Tesla then need to concentrate on making their cars overall cheaper if they want to stay ahead of the game within 5 years or so as the giants will be nipping at their heels in the not too distant future.
Exciting times. 👍
If Tesla is run along the lines dictated by Harvard Business School, which, as a public company, is to be expected, what Tesla will do rather than reducing prices of their cars will be to increase margin on cars until significant competition appears, dropping prices gradually, only to keep the order books full, so that they are able to drop prices to meet competition.
With them able clearly to sell every car they can make at current prices, they should be using fat margins to improve the design of both the cars and the production facilities. Much as buyers would like to see their prices dropping significantly, this is unlikely to happen until other manufacturers provide substantial competition - which they are not doing at present.
As far as Australia is concerned, the exchange rate is going to be the major factor.
Tesla is already moving to make smaller cheaper cars. They will flood the markets.
Companies, including Tesla and JLR, are building their own battery plants to bring down the costs.
You're right the current cost is higher, but early adopters will still pay it, while the rest of us wait.
As battery packs are built into new high selling models EV prices will fall. For example, imagine an EV i30 or Mazda 3. Toyota is already selling a hybrid Corolla for $31,870, which is only up $1500 on the regular Corolla.
Wait till Toyota releases a hybrid Hilux and Ford a hybrid Ranger and watch the buyers stampede to get them. Why wouldn't a trade buy a hybrid truck with a 3-400 km range that he can recharge at home for little cost, compared with spending $100 a week on diesel? It's a no-brainer and a tax deductible expense.
EVs are coming fast.
Tesla is not going to flood any markets in the near future - they simply do not have the production capacity to do so, nor the capital to expand it to a substantial extent. And even if they had the capital, it takes time to build and staff the sort of capacity needed.Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscoMick
Probably the most effective way Tesla could make very large increases in production is to licence production by other manufacturers who have the capacity. This would probably require Tesla to modify their direct sale model, which is possible, and would also require the other manufacturer to swallow a lot of pride - something that is quite likely if sales start to be badly impacted by EVs for a manufacturer that has a lot of catching up to do. But any arrangement of this sort would take years from agreement to the first production.
I'm afraid the closer I look at it, the less likely five years sounds as the end of ICE production - or even of EVs taking a substantial part of the market.
Tesla production has spiked, with 63,000 model 3s sold in the third quarter of 2018 in the USA alone.
• Tesla: vehicle deliveries by quarter 2018 | Statistic
I am guessing 5 to 10 yrs at least,in reality probably a lot longer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homestar
But i think the big issue will be getting the reliable power to charge these EV's.
The inconvenience will be an issue for many,particularly with company vehicles that are loaded,pulling trailers,etc.
We only have to have a hot day here and often have power issues.
I can see it happening 'yes boss,the car battery didn't charge last night'.....
Solar,batteries,are not an option for many people,for whatever reason.
For private use,short trips, around town,for some,EV maybe the go,but for many it won't be the go.
Then there is always Gav's gensets.[tonguewink]
So no ICE vehicles in 5 yrs?Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeros
We will have to agree to disagree
The whole automotive business is going to be turned on its head and all the charging infrastructure,etc is going to be in place to charge millions of vehicles?
We better stock up,ICE vehicles are going to be worth big $$$$.
I know what I'd tell my Boss if he bought me a Hybrid then asked me to plug it in at home to charge it - it wouldn't be very nice. My work car lives on the street, nowhere near a power point so he'd be **** out of luck doing that with me sorry. I'm not paying to run a fully funded work car, nor store it somewhere where it could be charged even if they paid my whole power bill. There are plenty of infrastructure issues that still need to be sorted out.Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscoMick
Exactly,there are millions of people with these types of issues,where EV's simply are a dream,and will be for many,many years.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homestar
The ICE will soldier on,with a few Ev's around for people that they suit.
And NO,many people are not going to suddenly adapt,and change,as some have said.