Climate Change and our Land of Fire, Flood and Drought.

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Originally Posted by rick130

We shouldn't have had the fires we had here on the north coast as it's wet and rain forest.
It shouldn't burn!
Ergo, you can't hazard reduction burn in a 'normal' season anyway, it's too wet...
But we were almost 900mm down on average rainfall last year, and that's not a typo!

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I only did Vic because because. All the same info is there for NSW or the whole of Oz.

Its not rocket science.

DL

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rick130

We shouldn't have had the fires we had here on the north coast as it's wet and rain forest.
It shouldn't burn!
Ergo, you can't hazard reduction burn in a 'normal' season anyway, it's too wet...
But we were almost 900mm down on average rainfall last year, and that's not a typo!

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Rain forests have burnt before. History has the Amazon in flames many a time... it’s tropical...

The direct link doesn’t quite fit... logic says that last year was statistically no cooler globally.
If the difference in 1 year is such that the accelerated climatic conditions have got so bad, then by extrapolation next year will be far, far, worse..

We know that it won’t though - the next 7-10 years will be lower fire risk / outcomes as the undergrowth is being destroyed right now, and result in a lower fuel load.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Tombie

Rain forests have burnt before. History has the Amazon in flames many a time... it’s tropical...

The direct link doesn’t quite fit... logic says that last year was statistically no cooler globally.
If the difference in 1 year is such that the accelerated climatic conditions have got so bad, then by extrapolation next year will be far, far, worse..

We know that it won’t though - the next 7-10 years will be lower fire risk / outcomes as the undergrowth is being destroyed right now, and result in a lower fuel load.

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But they tend to slash and burn those rain forests, and they have distinct wet and dry seasons, here it's pretty wet all year round.
Usually....

The climate change modelling predicted more extreme events.
This seems to be what we have.

Heard an interesting proposal on TV tonight by a Professor of summat or other.


He claims it is madness to have annual holidays at this time of the year & allow people to go bush camping in forests etc.

Much better to change it to March/April.

I can see his point of view & people wouldn't be stranded on yonder sea shores & waiting for rescue by the RAN or trapped on roads.

It may prove to be unpopular but as I keep saying, major changes & habits will be necessary amongst many others as Climate Change really takes hold. I mean, you may not even get Annual Holidays in the brave/****ed new world we will be living in.



Makes sense to me.

Annual holidays are in March-April in much of Asia because closer to the Equator it's the hottest time of year. For example, Thailand has it's annual water festival Songkran in April.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Tombie

Rain forests have burnt before. History has the Amazon in flames many a time... it’s tropical...

The direct link doesn’t quite fit... logic says that last year was statistically no cooler globally.
If the difference in 1 year is such that the accelerated climatic conditions have got so bad, then by extrapolation next year will be far, far, worse..

We know that it won’t though - the next 7-10 years will be lower fire risk / outcomes as the undergrowth is being destroyed right now, and result in a lower fuel load.

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I think you're confusing weather with fuel load after burning. It is likely to keep getting hotter whether we have fuel or not. Climate change won't stop just because our forests are black.
Actually, I have seen estimates that our fires have already released the equivalent of between half and two thirds of our normal annual national emissions, so these fires are actually making climate change even worse in future.
We are more likely to face higher temperatures in future because of these fires.

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Originally Posted by DiscoMick

Annual holidays are in March-April in much of Asia because closer to the Equator it's the hottest time of year. For example, Thailand had it's annual festival Songkran in April.

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And it was most enjoyable [emoji41]

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Originally Posted by DiscoMick

I think you're confusing weather with fuel load after burning. It is likely to keep getting hotter whether we have fuel or not. Climate change won't stop just because our forests are black.
Actually, I have seen estimates that our fires have already released the equivalent of between half and two thirds of our normal annual national emissions, so these fires are actually making climate change even worse in future.
We are more likely to face higher temperatures in future because of these fires.

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Not confusing anything.

Fuel load will be reduced, so the next 5 years there will be significantly lower risk of big burns.
If cold burns had been done effectively the last 10 years we wouldn’t be where we are now.

When people acknowledge that the Carbon component isn’t the key driver of Climatic Warming - Water vapour is... then humanity can work to fix the problem.

People can adapt to changes in climate. So can this planet. I’ve lived in multiple climates with higher and lower temperatures. I’ve worked in climates where the daily average in summer is well above 42c.

Adapt and overcome. [emoji6][emoji1787]

The emissions have already happened, worsened by these fires, so it will just keep getting hotter for decades to come, no matter how much fuel is on the ground.
Note there are fewer hot fires in the inland because there is less fuel, but the temperatures are still hotter.
We know it's going to get 2-3 degrees hotter over the next quarter century because we have already released the emissions to cause that to happen. It is unstoppable.
The real question is what happens after 2050. Do we curtail our emissions and have a chance to see temperatures plateau, or do we continue to ignore reality and selfishly carry on, and see temperatures 4-5 degrees hotter by about 2100?
If a 1 degree rise in average temperature has produced the current terrifying bushfire emergency, imagine how much worse it would be if the average temperature was 4-5 degrees hotter. [emoji15]

Visualisation of the the fires.

* Didn’t realise this would go viral 👀... - Anthony Hearsey - Creative Imaging | Facebook