Yep, and it doesn't matter what you select as the zero point, 21.8 degrees I think in this case, the graphs trajectory is still the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscoMick
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Yep, and it doesn't matter what you select as the zero point, 21.8 degrees I think in this case, the graphs trajectory is still the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscoMick
Yep.Quote:
Originally Posted by Slunnie
LOL!
I dunno what you're reading, but that link you posted is where my info comes from. And my comments ARE from their data!
But in your confusion(as with Mick) you're reading the year that was 2019 was 1.5°C hotter than 100 years ago.
That info(your link) is more about the 'average'. The averages that make the most sense are the linear(year on year increases) ones. ie. average = T
Remember back earlier .. the comment about local weather isn't climate change.
Well if the year that was 2019 is considered to be 'climate change', then the climate change prophecies and predictions turns to poo, and no sense can be made out of it.
So, whilst on the topic of the graph that you linked too .. do yourself a favour and click the slider in the upper middle(just under the regional box that shows Australia) slide the slidey thing down to T.
This gives you the trend line with time set to annualised(ie. no periodic smoothing).
Shows about 1.1°C increase(average) year on year since the 1910 mark.
THIS is your average temp increase since 100 years ago. Not the 2019 figure.
If you were to take the year on year figures as the basis for the climate change argument, then what happened in 2010-2011!
So trying to use any argument that 2019(alone) proves the climate is extreme because that was a very hot year, then the same argument can be made that right slap bang in the middle of it, there's no issue because 2010 and 2011 were below the average.
The argument needs to be consistently expressed, and not hyped up to be something it's not.
That is in terms of averages ... or not!
If not, and we're only using the year on year data as proof that climate change is making it hotter, then the mere fact that the 2010-2011 event happened where it did, means there's nothing to worry about. At some point it'll all settle back down and there's no issue.
So if you read the data you'll see the actual problem .. and that is that the upward trend in climate change is not a modern issue, it's been a trend since about the 1960s in Australia(as much as the BoM will show us).
For the entire the globe tho, the trend(of warming) has been happening since about the 1920s.
Hi all
Study Confirms Climate Models are Getting Future Warming Projections Right
Summary from the article:
"There’s an old saying that 'the proof is in the pudding', meaning that you can only truly gauge the quality of something once it’s been put to a test. Such is the case with climate models..."
.....
"Now a new evaluation of global climate models used to project Earth’s future global average surface temperatures over the past half-century answers that question: most of the models have been quite accurate."
Mike
I'm certain the climate scientists know how to "slide the slidey thing", after all they are well versed in dealing with global climate models and all that entails.Quote:
Originally Posted by AK83
AK83 is a climate change denialist and like all denialists , will try to fudge and bluff his way through accurate information in an attempt to justify his negative thinking.
The BOM has spent a lot of time , research , effort and money to come up with the most accurate models possible to present the most accurate forecasts and history on the subject of climate change.
the real LUDICROUS argument is coming from you AK83.....that you challenge the BOM is completely ludicrous.
Stop trying to fudge the figures and admit the obvious from the graph - Australia's had above average temperatures every year for four decades - 1979. That's just a fact. It's bleeding obvious. Just accept reality.Quote:
Originally Posted by AK83
CFS Update for KI.
I thought foam was not a good way to go after dramas on Air Bases etc.
Will there be WH&S claims later on?
Quote:
https://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/custom/fil...eader_left.jpg
INCIDENT UPDATEhttps://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/custom/fil...ader_right.jpg Message ID: 0004755
Time Message Issued: 16:58
Date Message Issued: 19/01/2020
Origin / Name: RAVINE
Kangaroo Island Fires Incident Update
ISSUED FOR RAVINE
A Bushfire Advice Message remains current for this fire.
Crews have continued to work at the planned burn at Vivonne Bay today, residents within the township and surrounding areas may continue to see smoke in the area. This burn will help ensure there is minimal ground fuel in the scrub area that leads towards the township and assist with controlling the fire.
Control lines have also been created along Stockdale Road, Vivonne Bay, utilising heavy machinery.
A blanket of firefighting suppressant foam has been laid within the Pine Plantations off Bark Hut Road, Cassini, this will assist with extinguishing areas that are currently smouldering. This work has been undertaken as the rows between each of the pines are too narrow to fit firefighting trucks. Residents in the area are asked to avoid disturbing or touching the foam. This system is also planned to be used within the fireground east of Vivonne Bay to provide further protection.
Aerial water bombing aircraft have been working in the Cape Bouguer Wilderness Protection Area, off South Coast Road, in response to a number of identified smouldering patches of scrub.
Roadsides continue to be cleared to make these areas safe for traffic movement.
Whilst there have not been any significant break outs, there are still hot spot areas being identified within the burnt ground.
CFS ground observers are checking on control lines and using thermal imaging cameras to identify hot spots.
As part of ongoing restorations of power on to the Island within the Flinders Chase National Park a drone has again been engaged to assist with the connection of cables in the area. This work is being undertaken in consultation with CFS air operations to ensure safety of all aircraft operating on the Island.
More than 1800 cruise ship passengers from Princess Cruises Sun Princess visited the many Kangaroo Island towns and tourist attractions today, before departing at approximately 6pm this evening. The event was a boost to the Island's many tourism areas.
Roads continued to be monitored and assessed for changes to the closure to allow further access to residents and tourist on the island. Please ensure you visit Traffic SA - Department of Planning, Transport and Infrastructure for the latest updates.
Anyone travelling on fire impacted roads need to be aware that road conditions have changed. Road safety signage has been destroyed across much of the fire ground. Driving with care and caution at reduced speeds is essential to your safety.
Emergency services and Australian Defence Force personnel may be stationed at various road closures.
Whilst some areas of Kangaroo Island have seen valuable rain today, much of the fire effected areas have not received any and are still reliant on efforts of firefighting crews.
For updates visit the CFS website (www.cfs.sa.gov.au) or phone the Bushfire Information Hotline on 1800 362 361.
This message will be updated as the situation changes or before: Jan 20 2020 09:30
WHAT TO DO:
- Check and follow your Bushfire Survival Plan
- Decide what you will do if the situation changes
- Look and listen for information on television, radio, internet, mobile phones and by speaking with neighbours
KEEP UP TO DATE:
- CFS website : cfs.sa.gov.au
- Bushfire Information Hotline 1800 362 361
- For hearing or speech impaired users, phone 1300 555 727 then ask for 1800 362 361
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- CFS on Facebook or Twitter
- On local ABC radio, FIVEaa, or one of our other Emergency Broadcast Partners.
Do not rely on a single source for warning information.
For emergencies call Triple Zero (000)
End of Message
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This is the hype I refer too.Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscoMick
I don't fudge anything.
The bleeding obvious is being misinterpreted very badly.
You see red, and it's sending off alarm bells in your psychology. Just a bleeding colour for crying out loud. The hype seems to have you guys well and truly under it's spell.
So much so you miss the actual underlying data .. ie. the truth and just 'see the red' so to speak.
But yes. lets just ignore the fact that world temps warmed between 1920-1940, quite dramatically! Seems that is how science works. ignore data staring you in the face because some idiot coloured it differently! [bighmmm]
Does it really matter what 'average temp' the globe was in 1920? If so, why.
Why is it so important to you guys what the average temp should be defined as? How do you really calculate a specific value for a moving target.
The globe has no 'average temp'!
It's totally arbitrary, a human made construct that is totally meaningless, but of course it's red, so it's bad .. because red is associated with some kind of danger or whatever.
The red section is simply a set of values above a randomly chosen average number .... the 1960-1990 baseline! It's completely irrelevant.
Has zero meaning .. just a different way to look at the data and create hype.
But you're free to continue your merry delusions that the globe didn't warm by 0.4°C in approx 20 years from 1920 to 1940.
If the baseline wasn't set to this stupid 1960-1990 value, and instead set as of 1900, then from 1900-1940 average global temps increased by 0.6°C.
If you can't see that it would therefore all be red from the year 1900 and above, then you guys really need help.
There is no fudging of numbers, this is the data presented on that site .. just presentedf in a manner that causes the average person who can't read data to see red and think danger!
At the least have the courtesy to know what you're arguing about! Or as a minimum, learn to read a simple graph.
So for the record, to assist you to read a simple graph, one which you so heroically use for your arguments!
From 1900 through to (early)1940's average global temps rose by approx 0.5°C, the majority of which occurred from 1920.
From the early 1940s through to the late 60's it held stable and began to rise again steadily from the early 70's to present, for which most of that increase has been mid 1980's/1990.
If you can't see this trend ... seriously you guys need to go to specsavers.
Had an enjoyable few days in Port Fairy Vic. Go a lot and have always enjoyed a night stroll around the island as 10 to 100s of thousand Mutton birds land all around me. Last week I must admit to being shocked as only a few 100 birds came in. The trend looked more than poor to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by AK83
Observation only of course. The Several hundred thousand birds just may have suddenly found a better place or just may be simply dead due to food shortages not related to climate change?
At a guess I would ping climate change but I am not a expert.
Where are all the mutton birds? Birdwatchers concerned by delayed arrival of migratory short-tailed shearwaters in Victoria - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)