Thread: Climate Change and our Land of Fire, Flood and Drought.

December 27th 1790. Wind NNW; it felt like the blast of aheated oven, and in proportion as it increased the heat was foundto be more intense, the sky hazy, the sun gleaming through atintervals.At 9 a.m. 85 degrees At noon 104 Half past twelve 107 1/2 Fromone p.m. until 20 minutes past two 108 1/2 At 20 minutes past two109 At Sunset 89 At 11 p.m. 78 1/2[By a large Thermometer made by Ramsden, and graduated onFahrenheit's scale.]December 28th.At 8 a.m. 86 10 a.m. 93 11 a.m. 101 At noon 103 1/2 Half anhour past noon 104 1/2 At one p.m. 102 At 5 p.m. 73 At sunset 691/2[At a quarter past one, it stood at only 89 degrees, having,from a sudden shift of wind, fallen 13 degrees in 15minutes.]My observations on this extreme heat, succeeded by so rapid achange, were that of all animals, man seemed to bear it best. Ourdogs, pigs and fowls, lay panting in the shade, or were rushinginto the water. I remarked that a hen belonging to me, which hadsat for a fortnight, frequently quitted her eggs, and shewedgreat uneasiness, but never remained from them many minutes atone absence; taught by instinct that the wonderful power in theanimal body of generating cold in air heated beyond a certaindegree, was best calculated for the production of her young. Thegardens suffered considerably. All the plants which had not takendeep root were withered by the power of the sun. No lasting illeffects, however, arose to the human constitution. A temporarysickness at the stomach, accompanied with lassitude and headache,attacked many, but they were removed generally in twenty-fourhours by an emetic, followed by an anodyne. During the time itlasted, we invariably found that the house was cooler than theopen air, and that in proportion as the wind was excluded, wascomfort augmented.But even this heat was judged to be far exceeded in the latterend of the following February, when the north-west wind again setin, and blew with great violence for three days. At Sydney, itfell short by one degree of what I have just recorded: but atRose Hill, it was allowed, by every person, to surpass all thatthey had before felt, either there or in any other part of theworld. Unluckily they had no thermometer to ascertain its preciseheight. It must, however, have been intense, from the effects itproduced. An immense flight of bats driven before the wind,covered all the trees around the settlement, whence they everymoment dropped dead or in a dying state, unable longer to endurethe burning state of the atmosphere. Nor did the 'perroquettes',though tropical birds, bear it better. The ground was strewn withthem in the same condition as the bats.

Watkin Tench Diary . Verified by study by University of NSW for correlation of his thermometer.
109F is 42.778C.
I saw 46C in Melbourne on the car outside temp sensor at Springvale the day before Ash Wednesday in 1981?

Regards PhilipA

Originally Posted by Bigbjorn

30 years ago you could have bought Burnett Heads for $69,000. Any how, Bargara is nicer.

Bargara is full of yuppies from Brisbane poncing about in BMWs.
We're currently in the caravan park on the beachfront at Burnett Heads and I like it.
A developer is building a retirement village for RV owners with extra large garages. It could make a good base for an aged wanderer.

Originally Posted by bsperka

Not according to the people who invest in power generation.
Coal is the most expensive form if energy generation in Australia, even with the subsidies we, as taxpayers, give it. Don't forget, it was the state governments getting rid of their future liabilities that causes the plants to be sold to private companies.
And I've read that there is currently a proposal that new renewables should subsidize coal fired power stations!!!

Britain, a country that started the industrial revolution with coal, has gone for days at a time without using coal fired power stations (yes, they do have some nuclear).

All we need is to take the blinkers off. AGL and Origin are both investing in battery storage, so they are preparing for the changeover to renewables, which are so much cheaper than coal or even gas.
Big business right now in solar for mining sites, in lieu of diesel generators.
As the saying goes "the stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones".

Those batteries are purely for grid stability...
They can’t power much - if the plant was drawing only off that battery it would last 18 seconds!

Climate change science has been clear for years, but when a firey joins instinction rebellion it becomes crystal clear. We are all in grave danger and this has nothing to do with politics.

Rebel with a cause: the regional firefighter who joined Extinction Rebellion | Australia news | The Guardian

Originally Posted by SpudHeadTed

Oh how I long for a silent environmentally sustainable conveyance...

The suburban rage of loud engines, of fuel guzzling V8's, of un-mufflered motorbikes, of bogans intent on constantly declaring themselves to the world by disturbing everyone else's peace.

....

Have to say .. totally agree.
I used to be of the type that enjoyed the hearty sound of a V8/V12(some V6s) etc. too.
Had plenty a Rover v8 due to that preference.
But now prefer the silent treatment myself too.
Done(and still doing) some sound deadening/muffling to the Tdi for long haul travel. Some things you can't.
I guess that's one the joys of being out in the middle of nowhere with nothing but sand and rocks around for miles on end .. no trees rustling in the wind.

But the reality of near term transportation capable of travelling to remote areas without an ICE in a reasonable time .. is not going to happen for our boomer/gen-x types.
Also, until the govt steps in and heavily subsidise these non ICE type vehicles, for a low income type like me .. just not economically viable.

Originally Posted by Bigbjorn

Walking and cycling might seem viable alternatives for some people. Not for those with arthritis, heart disease, etc. With poor public transport in the major cities and towns and non-existent in many country smaller communities, motor cars will remain an essential item for many.

I had an arthritic hip - due to a childhood accident - for the last 15-20 years. I couldn't run on it because it hurt too much but I did do up to 300km rides in a day on my bike with no problems. I rode to work and I walked everywhere else, so I used the car about once a week.

To not be able to walk at all, or cycle, the arthritis has to be pretty advanced (and I get that if you're in the public health system it won't be fixed until it has gone past the unbearable stage).

Originally Posted by SpudHeadTed

Climate change science has been clear for years, but when a firey joins instinction rebellion it becomes crystal clear. We are all in grave danger and this has nothing to do with politics.

Rebel with a cause: the regional firefighter who joined Extinction Rebellion | Australia news | The Guardian

It's ****ing it down in Elands today according to weather forecast. Bit late unfortunately!

We have used the terms '100 year event' and 'act of god'

We can now point at a climate change emergency.

But even with CO2 at pre 20th century levels and with the same population density we have now - we would have just as many people affected by long periods of drought and deadly fire events.

Ground/core analysis has shown that Australia has had massive drought events way beyond those recorded since CO2 started to ramp. And not from 1000s of years of slow natural climate change. Periods of sustained and widespread drought shifting in and out from century to century has been the norm in this country for a thousand years.

The rate at which C02 levels have been rising in the past 100 years is alarming. It points to a huge problem that many would prefer to ignore. We need to confront it head on and progress towards a carbon neutral and more environmentally concious economy to sustain our numbers. Yes there should be a sense of urgency, but no panic! Kids are literally ****ting themselves from all this doomsday talk.

Looking at CO2 reduction as the solution to periods of severe drought and devastating fire in this country would be foolish.

People prefer to get ****ed off and point the finger at national/global affairs. But what can you do to reduce your impact on your environment? And what can you do to protect your home from drought/fire/flood? Start there.

Originally Posted by manic

....

We have used the terms '100 year event' and 'act of god'

We can now point at a climate change emergency.

.....

They have actual records measured.
Pre 1970 we've(Aus) had more drought periods than post 1970 records.
if we call 1960 the midway point, there were more lower rainfall periods in the first half than the second half.
Global warming does not cause droughts, it will(or should) create wetter overall environment. Global cooling has shown that it causes aridification(hence my links to the 4.2Kyr event!
What's causing Aussie droughts is people, agri-industry. The BoM have stated on their site that they don't consider drought to be a simplification of just annual rainfall, they take into account consumption.
In the dictionary drought is described as a period of below average rainfall. So what's causing these so called droughts .. it's not Co2 ... it's simply too much usage.

rain-aus-BoM-Total-1900-2018.jpg
first graph is nationwide, the year on year trend line shows the reality that no one talks about.
rain-mdb-BoM-Total-1900-2018.jpg
Second graph shows the Murray Darling Basin, the area we're constantly told is in drought! We're never told of the reality that rainfall has increased by about 40-50mm annually, all we hear is doom/gloom/and huge disasters of a marine nature!
Just a simple glance shows that the periods of lower rainfall annually were far greater pre 1960s, and when global warming really started to take hold .. hardly ANY low periods compared to pre 1970/1960 era(when it was cooler).

I've said it before, using the same data sets, few areas of Aus have had lower rainfall than previously, South Western, Tassie and Vic .. where the annual rainfall was significantly higher volumetrically anyhow.

So when scientists that should know better come out and claim that global warming is causing these severe droughts, it's then you start to question their motives(or knowledge!).
What appears to be actually happenging(form a pure data standpoint) is that Aus as a nation is approaching a stage of more evenly distributed rainfall .. ie/ seemingly more in arid zones, and less in wetter(non tropical) zones(Tassie/Vic/Southwest).

Even arid SthAus has seen in increase over the GWP(global warming period), this would have to be the nearest to arid zone data we could guesstimate based on SAs geography. Another 50mm annual average rise, but from a very low 200mm 1900's annual.
Basically since this GWP, SA has had an annual increase of ~25% average rainfall

In saying that tho, there is no data set for the more arid central zones. The closest is the MBD area(for obvious reasons tho). But going on the fact that the MDB is still a semi arid zone(very low annual rainfall by volume) tha'ts about the best data the BoM offer us mere mortals to look at.
Largest drop in annualised total rainfall has been the southwest region, 150mm or so in the past century but from a high of 750mm to 600mm(approx) in GWP.

There is no climate change emergency! There is simply climate change.
I only have data on bushfires in Vic, and at a glance, they were far worse early 20th century compared to now .. even the really bad ones in recent(Vic) history.
My parents were very close to the '09 Kinglake fire(I think 7klm), mum had to be pulled out due to her health, and went to stay with sis not far away in Croydon .. just to get away from the smoke.
As we all know the 09 vic fires were one of the most catastrophic in terms of life, but not totality of affected area!
I still remember the shock of the fires(being a amateur photographer I HAD to go out and see the effects post fire period too. Chilling doesn't begin to describe the feelings, and in many places I just had to get outta there too.
Hopefully this reply won't emotionally affect any members, as that's not the puprose .. just highlighting that the sights and feeligns alone, in me, not beign personally affected were chilling to see.
But emotions shouldn't affect the data, or analysis of it all!
Hearing the analysis from the so called experts, but not hearing the actual reasoning(or science) behind it all(ie. such as the point that the term drought doesn't mean just total rainfall) ... it all reeks of something being hidden.