The Australian Energy Market Operator is to model even faster paths to net zero emissions, with a new “Export Superpower” scenario to assume Australia will reach net zero emissions in the early 2040s, and the electricity grid will lead the way and achieve even more rapid emissions cuts.
AEMO – whose job is primarily to keep the lights on in Australia’s main grids – broke new ground earlier this year with the release of the second version of its Integrated System Plan, a 20-year blueprint that included a “step change” scenario that assumed 94 per cent renewables share by 2040 as technology costs fell and the world woke from its climate slumber to take decisive action.
A new 180 page document – its 2021 Draft Inputs Assumptions and Scenarios report – goes even further, and suggests new scenarios that include Australia reaching net zero emissions as early as 2040, with the electricity sector – where emission cuts are seen as more readily achievable – delivering even more rapid reductions. The plunging cost of green hydrogen will play an important role.
These assumptions will have some significance – not just for AEMO’s next planning document – but also in a country which has a federal Coalition government that refuses to set a timeline for net zero emissions beyond a vague promise to deliver it some time this century.
However, all Australia’s state governments – and most of Australia’s major trading partners – have a 2050 deadline for net zero emissions and if the world is to meet its 1.5°C target, emission cuts will have to be a lot faster than that.
Despite the political bluster, there are signs that Australia’s Coalition government is quietly preparing the path for faster emissions cuts than it might admit to the Murdoch media and its conservative rump.
Export superpower: AEMO to model even faster paths to net zero emissions | RenewEconomy
				
			 
			
		 
			
				
			
			
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