Corona Virus

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Originally Posted by windsock

Agreed, although I think waiting for a vaccine may be too long a wait.

We can do this if the management of this is the same or similar between states and our two countries. Too many different management methods allows for too much risk of outbreaks through inconsistent approaches, and too many issues for the effective control of an outbreak to arise in the event of one. There needs to be a compatible infrastructure for tracing/tracking, testing and isolation and dealing with cases as and when they arise if we are to avoid Lockdown v2.0.

We have all learnt how we need to deal with this (contact tracing, testing and isolation) and our new normal is going to need to reflect the application of a majority of what we have learned but we all need to be operating at the same level of efficacy of method for the success of any ANZAC 'bubble'.

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Agreed. But you can not compare New Zealand with Australia in the pandemic fight. We had a rough start, where mistakes were made in the beginning, and it began to look like we were facing a horrifying escalation of the virus . Cool heads prevailed however [ and I'm talking the medical fraternity here] , slowly we got on top of the situation, our Hospitals were brought up to readiness, medical teams trained, tracing tracking and testing teams formed and trained, PPE gear sourced and stored ready for delivery to centres of any outbreak, and we started seeing results across the board. Slowly we got on top of it.

We had to start from a higher level of threat than NZ did. NZ did a magnificent job with what they had to deal with, but, it begs the question. If NZ were to face a much higher level of threat than it did, would it cope as well? Australia has demonstrated clearly it has the infrastructure in place to deal with isolated outbreaks, as shown at Blackwater. The day after the 11pm diagnosis of the virus in a deceased resident, two testing teams were on the ground setting up. One in Blackwater, one in Emerald. Tracing and tracking teams were on the job. Thankfully this is just one case, so far, but it points to the fact we are ready and with experience we will only get better. And I am sure all Australian States will be at the same state of readiness. Does New Zealand have the experience to say the same.? I agree with you, a co-ordinated effort from NZ and Aus. is needed to formulate a policy before travel between both starts. We can't afford to get it wrong.

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Originally Posted by Tote

Actually it is the QLD tourism industry that's going down the toilet which impacts on the whole country's economic success. We don't want to go there, we just don't want to pay your dole bill.
We are all in this together, if the states that are busy restricting their economy were to receive an adjustment to the proceeds that they get from the GST I suspect the situation would be very different.

Regards,
Tote

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I'm sure you speak for just one.Thankfully there are clear headed people who know better.

I was going to put this in the Walrus rugby thread, but I think it really belongs here. Why the trans- Tasman bubble must include rugby.


Why the trans-Tasman bubble must include rugby

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Originally Posted by bob10

Agreed. But you can not compare New Zealand with Australia in the pandemic fight. We had a rough start, where mistakes were made in the beginning, and it began to look like we were facing a horrifying escalation of the virus . Cool heads prevailed however [ and I'm talking the medical fraternity here] , slowly we got on top of the situation, our Hospitals were brought up to readiness, medical teams trained, tracing tracking and testing teams formed and trained, PPE gear sourced and stored ready for delivery to centres of any outbreak, and we started seeing results across the board. Slowly we got on top of it.

We had to start from a higher level of threat than NZ did. NZ did a magnificent job with what they had to deal with, but, it begs the question. If NZ were to face a much higher level of threat than it did, would it cope as well? Australia has demonstrated clearly it has the infrastructure in place to deal with isolated outbreaks, as shown at Blackwater. The day after the 11pm diagnosis of the virus in a deceased resident, two testing teams were on the ground setting up. One in Blackwater, one in Emerald. Tracing and tracking teams were on the job. Thankfully this is just one case, so far, but it points to the fact we are ready and with experience we will only get better. And I am sure all Australian States will be at the same state of readiness. Does New Zealand have the experience to say the same.? I agree with you, a co-ordinated effort from NZ and Aus. is needed to formulate a policy before travel between both starts. We can't afford to get it wrong.

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What is this higher level of threat? I don't perceive the covid virus as being targeted at any one country in particular. How can there be a higher threat anywhere than anywhere else? We were all dealing with the same threat.

A rough start? Yes, the mistakes made in Aust were obvious for a while. We too let the Ruby Princess people ashore and we too had to deal with a cluster **** from that. Kiwis also returned to NZ from Aust from that. We are a nation of international travellers and we had to let kiwis return en-masse for a while. e dealt with that. As seen in our stats previously posted, imported or import related cases were significant in our tally but we dealt with it.

We are each isolated countries protected by seas. We (NZ) went at it harder and earlier than you guys and dealt to the threats. It didn't happen by accident but by good design with pragmatism at the core of decisions. Our politicians didn't dither. That is the difference. Is it that quality that you are asking about? Our contact tracing improved markedly as political decisions were made to fund and fund and build on expert advice. Is that the quality you are asking about?

As for dealing with clusters... we have experience in dealing with that too from the partying larrikins to the rest home tragedies. We haven't survived being at 40 south through being retarded about working **** out Bob [biggrin] We are as ready as we are going to be and looking at the results for a country at the bottom of the world and a population of 5million we are doing just fine...

Cluster under investigation	Location	Total to date	New cases in last 24 hours	Current active cases	Origin	Status*
Wedding	Bluff	98	0	0	Overseas exposure	Open
Marist College	Auckland	96	0	0	Unknown	Open
Hospitality Venue	Matamata	77	0	0	Overseas exposure	Open
Aged residential care facility (1)	Christchurch	56	0	0	Unknown	Open
Aged residential care facility (1)	Auckland	51	0	7	Unknown	Open
Private Function	Auckland	40	0	0	Unknown	Open
World Hereford Conference	Queenstown	39	0	0	Overseas exposure	Open
Community	Auckland	30	0	0	Unknown	Closed
Ruby Princess Cruise Ship Cluster	Hawke’s Bay	24	0	0	Overseas exposure	Open
Aged residential care facility (2)	Christchurch	19	0	0	Unknown	Open
Group travel to US	Wellington	16	0	0	Overseas exposure	Open
Group travel to US	Auckland	16	0	1	Overseas exposure	Open
Aged residential care facility	Waikato	15	0	0	Overseas exposure	Open
Community	Christchurch	14	0	0	Overseas exposure	Closed
Aged residential care facility (2)	Auckland	13	0	0	Overseas exposure	Open
Wedding	Wellington	13	0	0	Overseas exposure	Open

Source: EpiSurv 09:00 28 May 2020 and the COVID-19 - Significant clusters | Ministry of Health NZ website [biggrin]

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Originally Posted by windsock

What is this higher level of threat? I don't perceive the covid virus as being targeted at any one country in particular. How can there be a higher threat anywhere than anywhere else? We were all dealing with the same threat.

A rough start? Yes, the mistakes made in Aust were obvious for a while. We too let the Ruby Princess people ashore and we too had to deal with a cluster **** from that. Kiwis also returned to NZ from Aust from that. We are a nation of international travellers and we had to let kiwis return en-masse for a while. e dealt with that. As seen in our stats previously posted, imported or import related cases were significant in our tally but we dealt with it.

We are each isolated countries protected by seas. We (NZ) went at it harder and earlier than you guys and dealt to the threats. It didn't happen by accident but by good design with pragmatism at the core of decisions. Our politicians didn't dither. That is the difference. Is it that quality that you are asking about? Our contact tracing improved markedly as political decisions were made to fund and fund and build on expert advice. Is that the quality you are asking about?

As for dealing with clusters... we have experience in dealing with that too from the partying larrikins to the rest home tragedies. We haven't survived being at 40 south through being retarded about working **** out Bob [biggrin] We are as ready as we are going to be and looking at the results for a country at the bottom of the world and a population of 5million we are doing just fine...

Cluster under investigation	Location	Total to date	New cases in last 24 hours	Current active cases	Origin	Status*
Wedding	Bluff	98	0	0	Overseas exposure	Open
Marist College	Auckland	96	0	0	Unknown	Open
Hospitality Venue	Matamata	77	0	0	Overseas exposure	Open
Aged residential care facility (1)	Christchurch	56	0	0	Unknown	Open
Aged residential care facility (1)	Auckland	51	0	7	Unknown	Open
Private Function	Auckland	40	0	0	Unknown	Open
World Hereford Conference	Queenstown	39	0	0	Overseas exposure	Open
Community	Auckland	30	0	0	Unknown	Closed
Ruby Princess Cruise Ship Cluster	Hawke’s Bay	24	0	0	Overseas exposure	Open
Aged residential care facility (2)	Christchurch	19	0	0	Unknown	Open
Group travel to US	Wellington	16	0	0	Overseas exposure	Open
Group travel to US	Auckland	16	0	1	Overseas exposure	Open
Aged residential care facility	Waikato	15	0	0	Overseas exposure	Open
Community	Christchurch	14	0	0	Overseas exposure	Closed
Aged residential care facility (2)	Auckland	13	0	0	Overseas exposure	Open
Wedding	Wellington	13	0	0	Overseas exposure	Open

Source: EpiSurv 09:00 28 May 2020 and the COVID-19 - Significant clusters | Ministry of Health NZ website [biggrin]

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OK, OK, it's not like the Bledisloe's on the line.[bighmmm] And it's not a competition [ much]. Both countries had their mistakes, and both dealt with them well. But , and this is a big but, what worked in NZ may not work in Aus. primarily , but not just because of ,our tyranny of distance. What works in a country not much bigger than Tasmania with a population of 5 million, with a natural moat between two islands, may not work here. So, if what you are suggesting is that Australia should adopt the NZ model , based on the results NZ reached , [ very good results, I agree, but no better than Australia's in the overall scheme of things,]well, I think we need to reset.

I have been following the disaster unfolding in the USA and Sweden on the Worldometers site.

I just stumbled on something I hadn't noticed before.

There is an argument that fatality rates can only be calculated by looking at cases that have had an outcome ie death or recovery. That information is available on that site.

The death rate of closed cases in the USA is 17% and in Sweden it is 46%.

The death rate of closed cases in Australia is 2%.

I suppose it could be argued that different testing regimes in each of those countries could distort the figures. However, the tests per capita in Aus and USA are similar and Sweden's rate is about half. So different testing rates might make Sweden look twice as bad as Australia, but that alone would not make their death rate 23 times ours.

Why is the death rate so high in USA and Sweden?

NSW had 12 times as many cases as Qld last time I checked, so that supports the argument that closing the borders has greatly reduced the number of cases.
The states with the open borders are still recording way more cases than those which are closed, even allowing for population differences, with some closed states and territories having nil cases.
Qld is waiting a month to see if NSW and Victoria can suppress their outbreaks. NZ has proven it can be done.
People should stop playing selfish politics with peoples' lives during a public health emergency, I think.

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Originally Posted by vnx205

I have been following the disaster unfolding in the USA and Sweden on the Worldometers site.

I just stumbled on something I hadn't noticed before.

There is an argument that fatality rates can only be calculated by looking at cases that have had an outcome ie death or recovery. That information is available on that site.

The death rate of closed cases in the USA is 17% and in Sweden it is 46%.

The death rate of closed cases in Australia is 2%.

I suppose it could be argued that different testing regimes in each of those countries could distort the figures. However, the tests per capita in Aus and USA are similar and Sweden's rate is about half. So different testing rates might make Sweden look twice as bad as Australia, but that alone would not make their death rate 23 times ours.

Why is the death rate so high in USA and Sweden?

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Could be a number of factors.
Age of population: older people are more likely to die than younger people, particularly in aged care homes.
Contact tracing: the USA and UK have failed to implement effective contact tracing.
Diagnoses of cause of death: some countries do not count deaths in the Covid total unless the person was diagnosed positive.
Rapid response: some countries moved much faster than others.
Quality of treatment: hospitals in countries slow to respond became overwhelmed with cases and could not cope, resulting in doctors having to decide who would be treated and who would be left to die.
Shortages of PPE in some countries such as the USA and UK meant infection was much more likely to spread among patients and staff in hospitals and aged care centres.
General patient health: people with other problems, such as influenza or lung diseases, are more likely to die, while people vaccinated for influenza are much less likely to become seriously ill from C-19.
Its a whole new situation.

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Originally Posted by vnx205

........................... Why is the death rate so high in USA and Sweden?

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Pretty simple really, total lack of leadership in the US with a narcissistic muppet running the show. What the US needs is a competent President and leader but unfortunately what they've got is a B grade reality TV show host acting out a real (lack of) life Survivor 'game'. Talk about FIG JAM, jeez ................. like a spoilt petulant child. You've got to feel sorry for the Yanks, leadership starts at the top and the cupboard is bare.

I don't see things getting better any time soon if the Memorial Day video footage is anything to go by and that it appears OK to have dick heads with assault rifles and Presidential support take over a state legislature :( When you add to this the uniquely American perception that civil rights means it's OK to infect your neighbour and to die in the gutter without national health care it's a bit hard for the Yanks to have a rational or intelligent national discussion of their current predicament :(

Unfortunately, in a Democracy you get the government you deserve, add to this divisive political posturing and active Presidential destabilisation of state governments then you end up with 1000 times as many deaths as Australia with only 12 times our population :(

We might be stuck with Scotty from marketing, our accidental PM but should be thankful that his attempts at destabilising the states has been by and large ineffectual. IMO if the Yanks were smart enough to have formed a truly national forum as Australia did their suffering and death toll would be a hell of lot less.

As for the Swedes, they chose early on to let the disease take its course with minimal intervention. On current figures it doesn't seem to have worked out too well, only time will tell if was a good idea or not.

Deano .

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Originally Posted by bob10

OK, OK, it's not like the Bledisloe's on the line.[bighmmm] And it's not a competition [ much]. Both countries had their mistakes, and both dealt with them well. But , and this is a big but, what worked in NZ may not work in Aus. primarily , but not just because of ,our tyranny of distance. What works in a country not much bigger than Tasmania with a population of 5 million, with a natural moat between two islands, may not work here. So, if what you are suggesting is that Australia should adopt the NZ model , based on the results NZ reached , [ very good results, I agree, but no better than Australia's in the overall scheme of things,]well, I think we need to reset.

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You asked some questions like you had no clues about what we have done, how we did them and when. I simply told you.

Using the rugby metaphor you introduced...

You guys are still in the last quarter, you've dropped the ball often enough (it must have been as slippery as a large boat out there) to let the other team get on top for a while, and you have had too many players playing as individuals not team members (state border closures). You have almost crossed the line in terms of closing the other side out but tempers are flaring and the other side is still up for the challenge with some unexpected movements. Your captain was still suffering from the head knock gained in the previous game (bush fire) and so was acting concussed for the first twenty minutes and was making dodgy decisions. However, your teams game management evolved with the game and it looks like the game has a winner so all credit to the boys, they will be able to come away as winners but it was edge of the seat for a while.

In our game, we got on top in the first half, our game management was the dominant one from the start and all we had to do was wear the opposition down till they had no where to go (wait out incubation periods), keep the ball in hand and play the game plan as outlined (our Captain left us in no doubt about what we needed to do and when we needed to do it), and we have essentially finished the game on the right side of the ledger. If we have any faults, we can sometimes carry on playing after the whistle has been blown and we need to now relax a bit we are back in the shed and loosen up (we are still at Level 2).

[biggrin]