Thread: Corona Virus

Re the stats and call me cynical, but the stats many countries are providing are oddly low.

In Indonesia, India, China (probably), Russia (definitely) and others, many people die undiagnosed due to poverty, age, lack of resources, ignorance, the low value for the human life and politics.

Originally Posted by Eevo

actually the death rate is no different to countries where positive tests are much higher. lets look at aust plus the top 5.

aust: 27,000 confirmed 3.2% death rate
usa: 7,100,000 confirmed 2.9% death rate
india 6,0000,000 confirmed 1.6% death rate
brazil 4,700,000 confirmed 3% death rate
russia 1,100,000 confirmed 1.8% death rate
colombia 800,000 confirmed 3.1% death rate

"Death rates" are practically meaningless in the context of a pandemic with rapidly changing case rates. The number of deaths is usually fairly accurately reported, although in many cases long after the death actually occurred. The "cause of death" is usually up to the doctor writing the death certificate, and the accuracy of this varies widely from doctor to doctor and place to place.

Since with this disease death most commonly is weeks after infection, the "death rate" strictly relates to the infection rate at the time the person was infected, not the infection rate when the death occurs. In five years time, we might have a reasonably accurate knowledge of the death rate, but before that the numbers are pretty meaningless.

The best measure of the impact of the pandemic is probably the "excess deaths" figure. This is the number of deaths in excess of what would be expected in the same month in a "normal" year, based on averages for previous years, adjusted for changes in population. Where available, and bearing in mind that like the death rates, accurate figures for deaths are at least a month behind because of slow reporting, these figures show that for most countries the COVID-19 cases are under-reported, with, for example, the USA probably having something like 40,000 more than reported.

Australia is unusual in that the difference between this year and normal shows almost no "excess deaths" after COVID attributed deaths are taken in(although the figures largely predate the Victorian problems), suggesting that our count is accurate.

This Excess Deaths figure is the one that will, a few years into the future, tell us how bad this pandemic really is.

Originally Posted by JDNSW

The best measure of the impact of the pandemic is probably the "excess deaths" figure.

Yes, I'd forgotten about this. Some weeks ago I saw a report on Indonesia where the death rate was 20%+ higher than normal.

Originally Posted by JDNSW

"Death rates" are practically meaningless in the context of a pandemic with rapidly changing case rates. The number of deaths is usually fairly accurately reported, although in many cases long after the death actually occurred. The "cause of death" is usually up to the doctor writing the death certificate, and the accuracy of this varies widely from doctor to doctor and place to place.

Since with this disease death most commonly is weeks after infection, the "death rate" strictly relates to the infection rate at the time the person was infected, not the infection rate when the death occurs. In five years time, we might have a reasonably accurate knowledge of the death rate, but before that the numbers are pretty meaningless.

The best measure of the impact of the pandemic is probably the "excess deaths" figure. This is the number of deaths in excess of what would be expected in the same month in a "normal" year, based on averages for previous years, adjusted for changes in population. Where available, and bearing in mind that like the death rates, accurate figures for deaths are at least a month behind because of slow reporting, these figures show that for most countries the COVID-19 cases are under-reported, with, for example, the USA probably having something like 40,000 more than reported.

Australia is unusual in that the difference between this year and normal shows almost no "excess deaths" after COVID attributed deaths are taken in(although the figures largely predate the Victorian problems), suggesting that our count is accurate.

This Excess Deaths figure is the one that will, a few years into the future, tell us how bad this pandemic really is.

We mustn't forget that social distancing and the other Covid precautions have cut the usual yearly influenza deaths by a good deal. Don't have the figures in front of me.

the key to all of this is flattening the curve, without flattening the economy.

altho I suspect covid will become "seasonal" like influenza.
seasonal isnt the right word but my brain isnt working right now

Big picture: “The U.S. has less than 5% of the globe’s population but more than 20% of the reported deaths,” AP reports. And “Only five countries — Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Spain and Brazil — rank higher in COVID-19 deaths per capita.

New forecast: 375,000 U.S. deaths by year’s end. A University of Washington model frequently cited by the White House predicted that deaths would top 200,000 on Oct. 1. That estimate was from June. That same model now predicts 375,000 deaths by Dec. 31. For a deepdive on modeling and its uses, see Patrick Tucker’s “The Problem With Coronavirus Models Is How We Talk About Them” from April.

Infections are rising in 22 states, most in the heartland and midwest, according to Monday stats from Johns Hopkins University. By contrast, cases were rising in just nine states one week ago, CNN reports.

Put another way: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is now the fourth-largest mass casualty event in United States history. Only the 1918 flu (with 675,000 deaths), the Civil War (618,200), and World War II (405,000) killed more Americans.

Originally Posted by WhiteD3

Re the stats and call me cynical, but the stats many countries are providing are oddly low.

In Indonesia, India, China (probably), Russia (definitely) and others, many people die undiagnosed due to poverty, age, lack of resources, ignorance, the low value for the human life and politics.

Places like Bella Roos would be on my 'Highly Suspicious' list for accuracy / honesty...
But the CDC is not above fiddling figures (lately reduced it's previous numbers) or that paragon of Virtue, the UK Government. Both have "encouraged" CoD to be written as 'Covid19' if the doctor signing can see any possibility that Cov-19 played a part in the demise. i.e. Dying WITH was taken to be dying OF.
Until recently, in the UK a Positive case could, long time after, be run over by a bus....and their previous positive test would trigger Cov-19 being a Cause of Death. And then added on to the Dread Disease Death Toll

A bonus of cov-19 is it's ' racia'l prejudice towards snuffing out the weak(er) and Elderly, the Wise among us...

- To work undetected in the shadows, you need to first bury the torches.

Anyone see that "Fear" is the contagion driving all of this ? The only plague that IS transmissable by 5G, 4G, (internet) fibre cable and copper wires.

Originally Posted by Arapiles

Deja vu again. If we hadn't got on top of it there would be thousands of deaths here. Pointing to other causes of death doesn't mean that we shouldn't address this cause of death.

Even without a Conspiracy Theory, don't you get the impression that we've been mis-informed, lied to, conned, deceived and been 'had' ?
Or the incredible incompetence of the "journalists" involved...

Oh yes. I thought that a couple of months in when shelves & Store Houses were being cleaned out of old Stock. Big players at work here. Funeral Directors must be laughing all the way to the Bank, especially in the USA.