Thread: Covid Mk ll

While deaths from other causes are tragic, it is important to remember than most of them are not caused by something that is contagious and capable of exponential growth.

In the very early days of this pandemic, I read a comment by some health official that if we get these preventative measures right, a lot of people will claim we over-reacted.

It is easy to forget how effective the preventative measures have been in avoiding the exponential growth that could have occurred if we had done nothing.

The numbers of daily deaths don't appear to be falling at the same rate as the new infections numbers which seems to suggest that some people are Not reporting a positive RAT result and are continuing to "Spread the Joy" by not isolating.
The TRUE number of new cases is highly likely to be much higher than that reported each day and even the reported 11,240 new cases and 36 deaths cannot in any shape or form be described as " We are doing well".

I went to town on Tuesday for my booster shot and I saw plenty of people wearing masks, hand sanitiseing, distancing and checking in and at the moment there are Zero cases of COV19 in this region So while it may be a case that people on the Eastern seaboard have pretty much given up even trying to contain the spread of this virus That is not the case here from my observations.

YES we will eventually have to live with this virus But that doesn't mean that simply give up trying to stop the spread of it, Simply Giving up is NOT an option.

My neighbour is a teacher at a school and I asked her if she has been supplied with RATs , which she was. I asked about the student testing and she told me it's up to the parents whether their kids are tested. So you don't know if he kid is tested and reporting it,

The testing numbers are skewed downwards as only those who get tested are counted, not all who are infected. The real numbers that are meaningful when this thing gets loose is hospitalisations and deaths. If those are going up then it is still running amok and restrictions still need to be in place to some degree in order to keep the health system functioning. In most of the graphs I can find for Aust., hospitalisations appear to have stabilised and trending downwards with lots of variability. Same trends appear for those in ICU and those in ICU on ventilators. It appears to have peaked for you guys - a good thing.

Here in NZ we are only just starting to see omicron spreading in the community and so our hospitals are yet to be exposed to pressures of high numbers. We have a rough couple of months ahead of us here.

Originally Posted by Roverlord off road spares

My neighbour is a teacher at a school and I asked her if she has been supplied with RATs , which she was. I asked about the student testing and she told me it's up to the parents whether their kids are tested. So you don't know if he kid is tested and reporting it,

In NSW the kids are supplied with tests but testing is not mandatory.


Regards,
Tote

[snip]

What I see in some of the graphs I have found is that Vic and NSW have the biggest trend downwards in hospitalisations, ICU and ventilators in Aust. Vic has some quite marked trends downwards in some of the more serious aspects of this thing. I hope this continues through winter.

From COVID-19 Hospitalisation, ICU, ventilator data in Australia | covid19data.com.au

Screenshot 2022-02-04 at 13-41-44 COVID-19 Hospitalisation, ICU, ventilator data in Australia co.pngScreenshot 2022-02-04 at 13-42-27 COVID-19 Hospitalisation, ICU, ventilator data in Australia co.pngScreenshot 2022-02-04 at 13-45-54 COVID-19 Hospitalisation, ICU, ventilator data in Australia co.png

Originally Posted by windsock

The testing numbers are skewed downwards as only those who get tested are counted, not all who are infected. The real numbers that are meaningful when this thing gets loose is hospitalisations and deaths. If those are going up then it is still running amok and restrictions still need to be in place to some degree in order to keep the health system functioning. In most of the graphs I can find for Aust., hospitalisations appear to have stabilised and trending downwards with lots of variability. Same trends appear for those in ICU and those in ICU on ventilators. It appears to have peaked for you guys - a good thing.

Here in NZ we are only just starting to see omicron spreading in the community and so our hospitals are yet to be exposed to pressures of high numbers. We have a rough couple of months ahead of us here.

Rough couple of months ahead for sure. If NZ was unable to keep Omicron out of the community it does tell you this is near impossible to beat (but no - does not mean “let it rip” - it just means “get a grip”).

Despite all this, interesting to see the plan to re-open borders has now been “locked in”. Nice to know NZ will welcome Australian’s again in the not too distant future. Plus of course good news for Kiwi’s wanting to get home as well.

Whilst it appears we have passed the peak on the east coast, daily case numbers are looking like they will in fact stabilise around the current levels - so whilst we can expect hospitalisations and deaths to also stabilise in the next few weeks, they won’t go away. This is clearly the reality of what the health officials have all been meaning when they say we will need to learn to live with this - whether we like it or not.

Welcome to the endemic.

Originally Posted by windsock

What I see in some of the graphs I have found is that Vic and NSW have the biggest trend downwards in hospitalisations, ICU and ventilators in Aust. Vic has some quite marked trends downwards in some of the more serious aspects of this thing. I hope this continues through winter.

From COVID-19 Hospitalisation, ICU, ventilator data in Australia | covid19data.com.au

Screenshot 2022-02-04 at 13-41-44 COVID-19 Hospitalisation, ICU, ventilator data in Australia co.pngScreenshot 2022-02-04 at 13-42-27 COVID-19 Hospitalisation, ICU, ventilator data in Australia co.pngScreenshot 2022-02-04 at 13-45-54 COVID-19 Hospitalisation, ICU, ventilator data in Australia co.png

I just wonder if we can compare a trend that starts extremely high with ones that are considerably lower, without getting a false impression. I guess we will find out, let's hope we are not caught out. Winter is coming.