It will never happen. If you're a mum who has a 4wd for the school run because you like it you are not going to want to do a special licence test. That's not fun, and what if you fail? A big big vote looser, so it's never going to happen.
All governments have consistently chosen to do the revenue based road safety strategies, not the expensive or vote robbing ones that would actually work. This has been the pattern for as long as I can remember.
It's more likely that they will lower the speed limit and put police with lasers all over the beach (a "blitz") and crank up the propaganda to convince you that they are saving you from yourself. That way they make money, you think they are doing something. :)
There isn't any change to the safety or otherwise but you've got no way of ever knowing because they also control the statistics :)

