Corona Virus

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Originally Posted by scarry

The Federal Govt has said that info is incorrect.

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Perhaps, perhaps not.;

Australia COVID: Thousands enter Australia for ‘holidays and business’ as wait drags for stranded locals (smh.com.au)

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Originally Posted by Eevo

to me thats acceptable. life isnt meant to be risk/death free.

my sister is living in the UK. she says its something they just live with and aust media is blowing it out of proportion for whats happening in other countries. no TP shortages there.

canada just lifted their lockdown. why? because they got below 400 cases a day. we're ****ting ourselves at 20 a day. admittedly, canada does have an excellent health system, which brings me to my next point


whats cheaper? investing in health services or having a lockdown.

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I imagine it is easy enough for someone to speak of acceptable deaths unless and until it happens to them or their family or friends.

Cheers

The issue of Long Covid has been known for some time now. The Guardian had an article on it which was posted in Walrus. I'll post it here , it may be of interest to some one.

Damage to multiple organs recorded in 'long Covid' cases | Coronavirus | The Guardian

And here is a study of the medium term impact of Covid-19 on patients discharged from hospital.

New study reveals medium-term impact of COVID-19 — Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences (ox.ac.uk)

And the UK NHS has 40 " long covid " clinics to tackle persistant symptoms

.EDIT As of November 2020, 60,000 people were thought to have Long Covid in the UK.

NHS England » NHS launches 40 ‘long COVID’ clinics to tackle persistent symptoms

There is a wealth of information to be found here:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers | Australian Government Department of Health

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Originally Posted by ozscott

I imagine it is easy enough for someone to speak of acceptable deaths unless and until it happens to them or their family or friends.

Cheers

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Here are the facts on the Canadian health system and covid-19.;

Canada's Government-Run Health Care System Crumbled under COVID-19 - Foundation for Economic Education (fee.org)

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Originally Posted by Eevo

to me thats acceptable. life isnt meant to be risk/death free.

my sister is living in the UK. she says its something they just live with and aust media is blowing it out of proportion for whats happening in other countries. no TP shortages there.

canada just lifted their lockdown. why? because they got below 400 cases a day. we're ****ting ourselves at 20 a day. admittedly, canada does have an excellent health system, which brings me to my next point


whats cheaper? investing in health services or having a lockdown.

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Originally Posted by ozscott

I imagine it is easy enough for someone to speak of acceptable deaths unless and until it happens to them or their family or friends.

Cheers

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That was the message of the road safety ads where a man was asked what he considered to be an acceptable number of fatalities. He thought 70 would be OK until he was presented with his family being part of the 70.

Some people seem to be unconvinced about how serious exponential growth is.

What do you think should concern us most; a 50% increase in the rate of transmission or a 50% increase in the fatality rate?

This article crunches the numbers.

Why more transmissible variants of COVID-19 can be as worrisome as more deadly ones

In summary if we start with a round number of 1000 deaths, then after 30 days a 50% increase in transmission results in 4,185 more deaths. A 50% increase in fatality rate results in 317 more deaths after 30 days.

Those calculations are based on some fairly realistic assumptions and different assumptions would give different numbers. However, the message would still be the same.

Transmission doesn't sound as scary as death but we should be more concerned about transmission rates than many people seem to be. I am convinced that in some cases that is because people slept through the maths lesson where exponential growth was taught. :)

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Originally Posted by JDNSW

Very simple - the R0 of covid19 is far higher than the three diseases mentioned. In fact, it seems to be higher than any other serious disease except measles. Estimates vary from about 3-6 for covid19, compared to around 12 for measles. It is also infectious before symptoms appear, and an incubation period long enough to allow symptomless patients to do a lot of spreading. And the fact that for many patients, it is not serious, so they don't isolate.

This means that without (effective) control measures the number of cases is going to increase very rapidly to very high numbers. Given the case fatality rate of around 3% (seems to be similar everywhere that has reliable data collection, including Australia), covid19 results in numbers of deaths far greater than diseases such as SARS, MERS and Ebola. SARS has a lower R0, and was easier to control, although it frightened a number of countries, MERS has no confirmed human to human transmission, so R0 is well below 1, and Ebola is not strictly an airborne disease, and is fairly easy to contain in advanced countries where good hygiene is practical.

Then there is the problem of "long covid" - the disease has only been around in significant numbers for about eighteen months. Data is still coming on this, but so far it seems possible that it may affect up to 50% of those who have even very mild cases of covid19. Having known people with post-polio syndrome, and having suffered from shingles (follows chicken pox after many years) myself, I see this is a major concern.

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And this is why scientists should not be allowed to play god and manipulate and manufacture this **** in labs for their own gratification (because I can and I might win a Nobel Prize) and then have it escape. Try making advances in childhood cancers, all cancers! Why are nations still looking in to weaponising viruses and bacteria?? We have enough nuclear weapons to wipe out the earth in a flash (literally).

Again, thanks China.