Thread: Corona Virus

Originally Posted by Arapiles

It's not as lethal as SARS, MERS or Ebola, but if it was we - humanity - would be in serious trouble.

So if Covid-19 is not as lethal as SARS, MERS and Ebola, which we have been able to control without vaccines (Ebola vaccine only available since 2019). AND, SARS and MERS are both Coronaviruses, why is humanity in such serious trouble? India, UK, USA, Italy early on, now parts of Africa.

As for the numbers, we will never know the true tally of infections or deaths because China will never reveal their true figures. India will never know the full impact on the lower castes where medical treatment is not available. I don't believe Russia will reveal it's true figures either, like China, to save face. And other poorer nations just don't have the means to maintain statistics let alone provide proper care.

Very thankful I live here, with or without adequate vaccinations.

Originally Posted by SBD4

IMHO it is different, visitors are subject to pretty strict entry conditions and can only visit one patient or are themselves a patient with social distancing enforced. Health workers interact repeatedly with many patients and coworkers in close quarters.

possibly the rules are different over there. i walked though a hospital on monday for a consult and apart from a temp scan at the front door, there was nothing.

Originally Posted by Slunnie

I was thinking about this today. If covid was left uncontrolled, with a 3% mortality rate it would mean for my school of 1000 students - 30 students and 60 parents dead. Perhaps if the vulnerability balance is not correct it might be 0 students and 90 parents dead. Some people think covids not that bad, but thats a lot of people just in our school community. Add to that probably 3-5 staff. In my local town that would be about 1200 people. Crazy stuff, however I'm glad I'm living in Australia right at the moment.

to me thats acceptable. life isnt meant to be risk/death free.

my sister is living in the UK. she says its something they just live with and aust media is blowing it out of proportion for whats happening in other countries. no TP shortages there.

canada just lifted their lockdown. why? because they got below 400 cases a day. we're ****ting ourselves at 20 a day. admittedly, canada does have an excellent health system, which brings me to my next point


whats cheaper? investing in health services or having a lockdown.

Originally Posted by ChookD2

So if Covid-19 is not as lethal as SARS, MERS and Ebola, which we have been able to control without vaccines (Ebola vaccine only available since 2019). AND, SARS and MERS are both Coronaviruses, why is humanity in such serious trouble? India, UK, USA, Italy early on, now parts of Africa.
........

Very simple - the R0 of covid19 is far higher than the three diseases mentioned. In fact, it seems to be higher than any other serious disease except measles. Estimates vary from about 3-6 for covid19, compared to around 12 for measles. It is also infectious before symptoms appear, and an incubation period long enough to allow symptomless patients to do a lot of spreading. And the fact that for many patients, it is not serious, so they don't isolate.

This means that without (effective) control measures the number of cases is going to increase very rapidly to very high numbers. Given the case fatality rate of around 3% (seems to be similar everywhere that has reliable data collection, including Australia), covid19 results in numbers of deaths far greater than diseases such as SARS, MERS and Ebola. SARS has a lower R0, and was easier to control, although it frightened a number of countries, MERS has no confirmed human to human transmission, so R0 is well below 1, and Ebola is not strictly an airborne disease, and is fairly easy to contain in advanced countries where good hygiene is practical.

Then there is the problem of "long covid" - the disease has only been around in significant numbers for about eighteen months. Data is still coming on this, but so far it seems possible that it may affect up to 50% of those who have even very mild cases of covid19. Having known people with post-polio syndrome, and having suffered from shingles (follows chicken pox after many years) myself, I see this is a major concern.

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

Couple of comments after skimming.

In Qld, if you test positive you're moved to an infectious diseases ward at a hospital. I think today's figure is 42 active cases in hospital.

The Prince Charles receptionist, being 19, does not qualify for a vaccine under the ATAGI guidelines. Someone decided she did not qualify for it under Dr Young's directive about hospital staff because she was located outside the infectious diseases ward. That has been overruled now.

Genomic testing has confirmed she got it from a person who was in the ward positive who the federal government had repeatedly allowed to leave Oz and go to Indonesia to fly helicopters and return, repeatedly going through the HQ system.

About 20,000 non-citizens have been allowed by the federal government to fly in and HQ in the last month. Meanwhile over 30,000 Aussies are still stranded overseas.

News from Adelaide says two positive infected people were permitted to charter a flight to Adelaide from Indonesia, despite known to be positive.

The SMH has an article on 10,000 people allowed in to Australia on what they call " a covid holiday". Thousands are coming in for non-essential purposes.

Australia COVID: Thousands enter Australia for ‘holidays and business’ as wait drags for stranded locals (smh.com.au)

Originally Posted by JDNSW

Very simple - the R0 of covid19 is far higher than the three diseases mentioned. In fact, it seems to be higher than any other serious disease except measles. Estimates vary from about 3-6 for covid19, compared to around 12 for measles. It is also infectious before symptoms appear, and an incubation period long enough to allow symptomless patients to do a lot of spreading. And the fact that for many patients, it is not serious, so they don't isolate.

This means that without (effective) control measures the number of cases is going to increase very rapidly to very high numbers. Given the case fatality rate of around 3% (seems to be similar everywhere that has reliable data collection, including Australia), covid19 results in numbers of deaths far greater than diseases such as SARS, MERS and Ebola. SARS has a lower R0, and was easier to control, although it frightened a number of countries, MERS has no confirmed human to human transmission, so R0 is well below 1, and Ebola is not strictly an airborne disease, and is fairly easy to contain in advanced countries where good hygiene is practical.

Then there is the problem of "long covid" - the disease has only been around in significant numbers for about eighteen months. Data is still coming on this, but so far it seems possible that it may affect up to 50% of those who have even very mild cases of covid19. Having known people with post-polio syndrome, and having suffered from shingles (follows chicken pox after many years) myself, I see this is a major concern.

Thanks for that. A clear and concise explanation. A rare thing lately.

Originally Posted by JDNSW

Then there is the problem of "long covid" - the disease has only been around in significant numbers for about eighteen months. Data is still coming on this, but so far it seems possible that it may affect up to 50% of those who have even very mild cases of covid19. Having known people with post-polio syndrome, and having suffered from shingles (follows chicken pox after many years) myself, I see this is a major concern.

Thank you, John.
This is the sort of information I have been trying to glean, hence my queries on here.

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

About 20,000 non-citizens have been allowed by the federal government to fly in and HQ in the last month. Meanwhile over 30,000 Aussies are still stranded overseas.

The Federal Govt has said that info is incorrect.