Corona Virus

Channel surfing this morning and I stopped on a talk fest of epidemiologists who are part of the "advice'" services to government. It was somewhat eye opening what they were saying.

That when the PM is saying AZ is a safe option for the over "x" age" what he is really saying is that AZ is a safe/r option compared to getting Covid and nothing to do with it being a safe vaccine per se.

That all the constant changes to age groups accessing what vaccine is not medically driven but enturely a political push.

The Government has a blunt warning on the COVID re-opening plan. " There will be deaths ". We have learned to live with the flu, and there are many deaths from the flu in a normal year. So, Can we learn to live with COVID ? Is this the new normal? The only part of this I can't agree with is that Under 12 years old will not be considered a prority for vaccination. Apart from that, the plan has merits , I think.

'There will be deaths': Govt's blunt warning on COVID reopening (thenewdaily.com.au)

This story comes from the New York Times coronavirus update August 1 2021.


Disturbing news from the US . Health officials have have expressed concern over a simultaneous rise in delta infections and cases of respiratory syncytial virus. or R.S.V., a highly contagious seasonal flu like illness that is more likely to effect children and older adults. Dr Heather Haq, a pediatrition at Texas Children's Hospital in Houston, described an increase in both COVID and R.S.V. hospitalisations. [ this next bit is disturbing]

"After many months of zero or few pediatric COVID cases , we are seeing infants, children and teens with COVID pouring back into the hospital ,more and more each day. Patients have ranged in age from 2 weeks to 17 years in age , including some with COVID pneumonias. We are on the front edge of a huge COVID surge , with winter level patient volumes of acutely ill infants/ toddlers with R.S.V., and I worry we will run out of beds and staff to handle the surge upon surge."

In addition to Covid, more children are getting a respiratory virus more commonly seen in winter. – Newsaroundworld.org

Sounds like an expected result of stopping social distancing!

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Originally Posted by Grumbles

Channel surfing this morning and I stopped on a talk fest of epidemiologists who are part of the "advice'" services to government. It was somewhat eye opening what they were saying.

That when the PM is saying AZ is a safe option for the over "x" age" what he is really saying is that AZ is a safe/r option compared to getting Covid and nothing to do with it being a safe vaccine per se.

That all the constant changes to age groups accessing what vaccine is not medically driven but enturely a political push.

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Not quite, the vax, which vax, time between vax, etc, is all risk driven.

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Originally Posted by DiscoMick

9 of 16 of today's Qld cases are children, but they aren't recommended to get vaxed. Why not? Getting Covid is far more dangerous than getting vaxed.
Time to scrap the age limits and offer any VAX to anyone of any age, with the approval of a GP, I think.
Interesting today Qld Health Minister said she has asked the Commonwealth to send the state's AZ to GPs and pharmacies. She said if a GP has given people their first AZ, they will be able to get their second AZ from pharmacies, to free up spaces at GPs for first jabs.
Good move.

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Regarding your 1st point, I'm not sure that is the case in children.

To your 2nd, I don't think GP's are going to over rule ATAGI's advice.

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Originally Posted by bob10

...cases of respiratory syncytial virus. or R.S.V., a highly contagious seasonal flu like illness ...

...In addition to Covid, more children are getting a respiratory virus more commonly seen in winter. – ...

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Same thing happened in Aust apparently. Summer 20/21 over there. We have had a surge here in NZ in the last several weeks. I had it and it sat me down and hit me pretty hard. Still getting over the after effects of RSV 4 weeks later. A most unpleasant thing.

RACGP - Why did RSV see a summer surge in Australia this year?

Attachment 172603

Chart from https://ww2.health.wa.gov.au/-/media...ek-53-2020.pdf and also has a multi-year graph of kids and adults and 2020/21 saw a surge in cases over there.

We experienced a surge recently. It is thought our surge coincided with the travel bubble.

RSV outbreak: '''Very sharp''' spike in cases dwarfs infections from last six years | Stuff.co.nz

As JDNSW states, social distancing reduced immunity to a few things. Then it all cascaded back. [bigsad]

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Originally Posted by JDNSW

Sounds like an expected result of stopping social distancing!

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It's going to be very important we learn how to manage COVID in the school environment.Vaccinating teachers would be a start. Children can spread the virus throughout the community quickly, it's to be noted that 80% of the adut community vaccinated is only about 60% of the population. The US has cleared pfizer for children 12 to 15, and tests are under way for aged 5 to 12. We should consider vaccinating children.

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Originally Posted by windsock

Same thing happened in Aust apparently. Summer 20/21 over there. We have had a surge here in NZ in the last several weeks. I had it and it sat me down and hit me pretty hard. Still getting over the after effects of RSV 4 weeks later. A most unpleasant thing.

RACGP - Why did RSV see a summer surge in Australia this year?

Attachment 172603

Chart from https://ww2.health.wa.gov.au/-/media...ek-53-2020.pdf and also has a multi-year graph of kids and adults and 2020/21 saw a surge in cases over there.

We experienced a surge recently. It is thought our surge coincided with the travel bubble.

RSV outbreak: '''Very sharp''' spike in cases dwarfs infections from last six years | Stuff.co.nz

As JDNSW states, social distancing reduced immunity to a few things. Then it all cascaded back. [bigsad]

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Yes, NZ was mentioned in the link. The surprising thing about the US cases is it is out of season for them. There is so much we don't know.

EDIT. Just took the time to read the first link .Explains it well. The bit about the reduced immunity to influenza in the 2020 season because of Covid safe practices leading to a more severe flu season when it returns doesn't sound good.

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Originally Posted by bob10

It's going to be very important we learn how to manage COVID in the school environment.Vaccinating teachers would be a start. Children can spread the virus throughout the community quickly, it's to be noted that 80% of the adut community vaccinated is only about 60% of the population. The US has cleared pfizer for children 12 to 15, and tests are under way for aged 5 to 12. We should consider vaccinating children.

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Exactly. According to my calculations, using published efficacy of the vaccines and R0 numbers, I calculate that for the delta strain we need 83% of the whole population (i.e. including children) to stop accelerating spread of the virus. That of course is with no other measures.

Even modest efforts such as mask wearing and reasonable other measures such as requiring vaccination for potential superspreader events, and keeping up a bit of social distancing, reduce the effective R numbers so that the percentage required reduces. And the actual R values are certainly different for different groups, and this could be taken into account

Doherty have apparently used Monte Carlo simulation, and the numbers they have come up with are consistent with my calculations, noting that while I have used the "no transmission" case, they have gone for "acceptable deaths and cases", which explains their lower numbers. It would be interesting to see details of the numbers they have input, as well as the full distribution of their results - but that would be a lot of reading!