Thread: Corona Virus

Originally Posted by 350RRC

It is a virus that can re-occur.

A couple of correspondents on here have had recurring issues.

DL

no, the virus doesn't re-occur. it's never eliminated and "hides" in nerve endings. it might sounds like im splitting hairs but its an important distinction.

My old man (very senior infectious disease specialist) would say it potentially 're- presents', i.e. you can have the same symptoms / potential mortality risk more than once.

thanks, DL

Originally Posted by trout1105

Relying on "Herd Immunity" as an answer to the COV19 virus is NOT an option especially when there is NO definitive evidence that once infected/recovered the immunity is a long term thing.
Isolation until a serum is found for this virus is by FAR the Best and Safest option.
IF what is happening in VIC is to be the so called "New Normal" then I am so glad that WA won't be opening its borders until places like VIC can eliminate the spread of this virus or a proven vaccine is made available in Australia.

Not sure that the isolation thing is working out so well for the NT. Northern Territory health officials report new case of coronavirus - ABC News the reality is that there will be outbreaks in WA sooner or later, the important thing is how those outbreaks are managed, preferably by not letting the rentacops bonk the inmates.

Regards,
Tote

.... is that we still don't know what the long-term effect of this thing is - getting everyone infected may not be a good idea.

Lots of people having ongoing issues:

Coronavirus Survivors: Here'''s What Recovery May Look Like - The New York Times

Originally Posted by Arapiles

getting everyone infected may not be a good idea.

i think its enviable.

take USA: 0.8% of their population is infected




confirmed cases are doubling approx every 60 days (2 months). I'll leave out the exponential maths for now.

0.8 now/early july
1.6 early sept
3.2 early nov
6.4 early jan
12.8 early mar
25.6 early may
51.2 early july <---1 year from now
102.4 early sept


whts australia going to do? keep it self isolated from the rest of the world?

If the USA allows the current rate of increase to continue as you suggest, there will be a large measure of chaos, with medical facilities collapsed in many places (for example, see https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...upancy-growth/), massive numbers of personal bankruptcies - remember that in the USA a week in hospital (average hospital stay for hospitalised cases is over a fortnight) means bankruptcy for probably at least a third of the population. The effects of the number of resulting business failures will result in a long lasting depression which will leave the Great Depression looking like a minor blip.

In reality, it is unlikely the rate of increase will continue unchecked - at the present rate of increase the pandemic will, by November, have claimed more lives than all US lives lost in wars since 1900. If it continues until this time next year, the death toll is likely to exceed that of all US wars since 1776. Long before that happens most people will be starting to behave sensibly without government rules, so that herd immunity levels for a disease this infectious will take years to achieve.

No, I don't think this is enviable.

It is almost certain that a workable vaccine will be available by this time next year, if not earlier, and those countries that manage to keep it at bay until "herd immunity" can be achieved using a vaccine and still have a more or less intact society will be in a lot better situation than those that have allowed much of their society to be destroyed by the virus.

Originally Posted by Eevo

can you name a virus where: once infected/recovered the immunity is NOT a long term thing?

Corona viruses in the past have been shown to have only short term immunity.

Rabies, diptheria and so on are ones that you have limited immunity periods.

I'm not convinced by the herd immunity argument. How does that work for influenza, where there are vaccines but it still spreads, for example? Or for various diseases which spread if less than about 80% of individuals are immunised, which is happening now. Individual immunity for a period yes, but herd immunity I'm not convinced will work, particularly when the virus is so highly infectious and easily transmitted. I guess only time will tell.