Corona Virus

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Originally Posted by JDNSW

In the Australian situation it would be useless except as 'pandemic theatre'. With the infection rate in any Australian state being well below 0.1% (probably below 0.01%), a test with 96% accuracy is providing no useful information at all, and providing either a false sense of security or a lot of false positives. If you have a plane load of 100 passengers, then you could have up to four infected passengers or up to four refused boarding because of a false positive. Can you imagine how that would go down?

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The published data quoted a 96% detection rate for positive cases for non-asymptomatic individuals and 100% negative accuracy rate.

False positives seemed to be only for asymptomatic individuals but still had a 91% positive detection rate but the negative accuracy drops to 96%.

A small % will always slip through - but the reality is for interstate travel we are doing NO testing prior to travel and relying 100% on a self-declaration that you have no symptoms. I have done multiple flights now and every flight has had people coughing and sneezing which tells me people are making false declarations.

I have no doubt this is why we keep reverting to hard border controls but if we had more confidence that positive people are not moving between the states - and rapid screening with a high detection rate could do this - then a more workable solution could be found.

Will be interesting to see how many local cases VIC now needs for states to close the border with VIC again.

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Originally Posted by bob10

I can see where the poster is coming from. It seems irresponsible to fly a 100 year old person all the way to the West Indies, especially during COVID. Having said that, I haven't seen it reported any where that it actually happened. And yes, it's none of our business, anyway. As said, it is what it is, no amount of on line chat will change a thing.

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Now you are taking a bead on the messenger. It does appear in the media if you look. Apparently was in December.

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Originally Posted by 4bee

Now you are taking a bead on the messenger. It does appear in the media if you look. Apparently was in December.

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Either way, it's none of our business.

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Originally Posted by bob10

Either way, it's none of our business.

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I haven't said it is or isn't, but there seem to be plenty of posts on here that that applies to as well, but gets a lot of comment from Aulroians. Really they are usually not our business either.

As I said in my original post today I am but a poorly messenger & not going to start WW3 over it. I feel sure Tom wouldn't want that


End of.

Captain Tom was a superstar who frankly could travel anywhere he wanted - albeit with a slow shuffle.

Unlike spoilt tennis players who can come to Victoria from hot spots with the UK virus whilst some of us are locked out because we visited Perth.

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Originally Posted by DiscoDB

The published data quoted a 96% detection rate for positive cases for non-asymptomatic individuals and 100% negative accuracy rate.

False positives seemed to be only for asymptomatic individuals but still had a 91% positive detection rate but the negative accuracy drops to 96%.

A small % will always slip through - but the reality is for interstate travel we are doing NO testing prior to travel and relying 100% on a self-declaration that you have no symptoms. I have done multiple flights now and every flight has had people coughing and sneezing which tells me people are making false declarations.

I have no doubt this is why we keep reverting to hard border controls but if we had more confidence that positive people are not moving between the states - and rapid screening with a high detection rate could do this - then a more workable solution could be found.

Will be interesting to see how many local cases VIC now needs for states to close the border with VIC again.

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The problem remains though, this rapid test is simply not accurate enough to be useful for screening airline passengers, or any other group, in the Australian situation where the case numbers are extremely low.

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Originally Posted by JDNSW

The problem remains though, this rapid test is simply not accurate enough to be useful for screening airline passengers, or any other group, in the Australian situation where the case numbers are extremely low.

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I actually don’t disagree based on case numbers - same as the self declaration and temperature checks are also meaningless.

But just think of it as a course filter - multiple passes will still clean up the sample before you then apply a fine filter. Would result in an order of magnitude improvement but like testing interstate travellers after they came from a hot spot - unlikely to ever find a new case in Australia because case numbers are so low. We see this with mass PCR testing after an outbreak of 1 case.

A daily rapid test done every 24 hours over 7 days is probably as accurate as a weekly PCR test but we will never know.

I for one would do a rapid daily test if it was available as I need to be able to move between states on a regular basis. I would even go into self isolation based on a false positive if I can then do a PCR test to be released again within 48 hours - just as the tennis players will probably be released to play essential tennis if they pass the latest testing as a result of the local case in Melbourne.

And yes I would do a weekly PCR test if it meant I could then travel interstate without fear of being locked out of my home state if I am virus free.

Amazes me that so far the thousands of people who left Perth after it was backdated as a hot spot and we have not found a single case from these travellers and yet border restrictions prevent free travel every time we have one or two new cases.

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https://scontent-syd2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...30&oe=6041FB85

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Originally Posted by bob10

THE ATLANTIC newspaper has had a project " the COVID tracking project" going for some time in the US, the latest ;

The Pandemic is in tenuous retreat. The first paragraph reads;

The good news in COVID-19 data continued this week, as new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all dropped. For the seven-day period running January 28 to February 3, weekly new cases were down more than 16 percent over the previous week, and dropped below 1 million for the first time since the week of November 5. This is still an astonishing number of new cases a week, but far better than the nearly 1.8 million cases reported the week of January 14. Tests also declined nationally, but by less than 3 percent, nowhere near enough to explain the steep drop in cases.

The beginning of the end ?

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Some times it takes Officialdom time to wake up to the bloomin' obvious.


I reckon some of the University Degrees that some "experts" have got are not worth the paper they are printed on.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/05/get-guards-out-of-corridors-at-quarantine-hotels-and-get-fresh-air-and-cctv-in-experts


Blind Freddy could have seen the obvious.


Even then, IMHO there would also be more windows at each room opened to vent a good % of stale infected air off to outside instead of recirculating back through the corridors & thru the AC system again & again & again ad infinitum.


Hold on, the windows are probably sealed as is the custom to keep A/C operating costs down. Bloody modern building design!