Thread: Corona Virus

Originally Posted by Saitch

I just looked at the world/USA cases and deaths. The per centum death rate in the US is 4.8%

We have around 1.3%

Only matters if you’re social circle is in that % range

I see NSW is going to fine hotspot Victorians $11,000 if they are caught in NSW.

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

I see NSW is going to fine hotspot Victorians $11,000 if they are caught in NSW.

I would have thought that it would be Much fairer to Fine ANYONE regardless of their State/area of origin who have been in these hotspots and then travel to another State or area and Not just Victorians.

BOTH groups, residents of hot-spots and travellers-through.

Announced on news this AM, 70+ new cases found in Victoria.

- What % will be symptomatic, hospitalised, 'Ventilated' ? - Then compare the numbers with Serious flu variety, Swine flu, and Bird flu.

Anyone know where to find these numbers ? - I don't remember any reporters asking those questions / news media publishing them.
'

Originally Posted by JDNSW

Either Democrat or "New World Order", led by Bill Gates, who is determined to microchip every human in the world so that the can be controlled under the pretence of vaccinating them for a non-existent disease! (or a few other conspiracy theories)

But regardless, "We are not going to socially distance - that is socialism!"

Didn't think you gave credence to Billy Goat having a lust for POWER... More likely, it's his dogmatic Belief in the supremecy of ... Science & Technology. (his latest is lab-made BREAST milk....) - not to mention the obscene amount of $$$s to be made if/when one of his vaccines is mandated.

Originally Posted by Saitch

I just looked at the world/USA cases and deaths. The per centum death rate in the US is 4.8%

We have around 1.3%

Well done us !

Per cent of 'what' group?
- TESTED positive ? - Symptomatic Population ? - General Population?

Originally Posted by superquag

Well done us !

Per cent of 'what' group?
- TESTED positive ? - Symptomatic Population ? - General Population?

Of cases testing positive.

The most sensible figure you can come up with for fatality rate is confirmed cases that died divided by confirmed cases that survived. For the USA the figure is 10%, Australia 1%. Florida is 12.8%. Figures from worldometers.info, a few minutes ago.

For an ongoing pandemic, the fact that average time from diagnosis to recovery is normally different from diagnosis to death, so the recovered and death cases come from different stages of the pandemic. Most recoveries happen relatively rapidly, perhaps a fortnight on average, fatal cases tend to last a lot longer.

There are other figures that could be used but they all have worse problems. To put the figures into context, influenza has a comparable figure of around 0.1%, depending on the variety, some may be as high as 1%. SARS was around 10% and MERS as high as 30%. But all of these are far less infectious than covid-19. In fact, the only comparable serious disease for infectivity, as far as I can see, is measles.

The above figures are for diagnosed cases. For all diseases, the actual number of infections is higher than the number of diagnoses, but how much is unknown. And causes of death are in many cases uncertain or incorrectly attributed, so there is uncertainty in death numbers. How accurate you death figures are can be estimated by comparing, for example, the average mortality for each month over the years with that during the pandemic. During the pandemic we will see a rise above the normal figure. If the covid-19 attributed deaths are subtracted from this 'excess deaths' figure the residual will indicate how accurate you deaths due to covid-19 figure is. (could be higher or lower) Looking a few days ago at the figures up to the end of May suggested that the Australian figure for covid-19 deaths is pretty accurate. The same cannot be said for most other countries, with most having a very large increase in deaths during the pandemic not attributed to the pandemic. This can be because of shortage of testing (this certainly happened in Italy where a test shortage meant they were not wasted on the dead), and is seems to have happened in Florida. Russia and possibly other countries are suspected of deliberately minimising the deaths due to the pandemic.