Thread: Corona Virus

Regarding epdemiological modelling, this 'video' is interesting...

Covid 19: R0; SIR, SEIR Models deeply flawed; Epidemiology In The Dock: Part 1 - YouTube

Or, if you prefer to read the slides for yourself.... https://peerlessreads.s3.us-east-2.a...ir_200531c.pdf

Originally Posted by trout1105

. FFS Mate stop whining and face the fact that EVERY other State and Territory in Australia Has and still are (barring Melbourne) taking international/interstate flights and Yet VIC is the ONLY State having Major dramas with containing this virus So the criticism over Victoria's handling of this problem IS valid.

Patently untrue. It's international flights that are the issue and a quick check show that Perth and Adelaide had no international arrivals or departures today and Brisbane has 4, two from NZ and one from Taiwan - all COVID clear - and one from Doha. In contrast, Sydney has 12 arrivals and that's after the new caps they've put in place.

SA wasn't receiving international flights at all from March to June and Tasmania hasn't had an international connection at all since 1998. SA stopped receiving international flights in March and started getting one flight a week from Singapore from 6 June, so up until then NSW and Victoria were having to deal with the tens of thousands arriving back in Australia, many of whom weren't residents of those States.

The numbers the different States dealt with between June 7 and July 7 were:

"New South Wales received the majority of returned travellers by more than twice as much as the next closest with 39,394.
Victoria received the second-most with 15,374, followed by Queensland with 10,054.
Western Australia accommodated 5,377 returned travellers, the Northern Territory 962 and South Australia 683.
The Australian Capital Territory received the fewest returned travellers with 307."
And, they could've added, Tasmania received zero.

So, from March to June nearly all international arrivals were into Melbourne or Sydney, who had to manage the quarantine, often for non-residents.

Do you notice the correlation between international arrivals and COVID-19 numbers?

Originally Posted by superquag

Then another elephant in the room. From another (Medical) blog I follow - which includes the odd Swede - the suggestion is made "migrants from the African continent" are approx 40% of the death numbers. Yet they constitute around 1% of population....
Why? - Sub-optimal immune system perhaps, due in no small part to chronic Vit. D deficiency, Dietary, low sun, (high latitude) on top of being Winter up there...

The UK govt and the press understands this is mainly responsible for the high % of "BAME" - Black, Asian & Minority Ethnic health workers catching COVID. 'Asian' in the UK r4efers to Indians/Pakistan, and Minority Ethnic a euphamism inclusive of middle Eastern Muslims....

Despite being in sunny WA, and never using sunscreen.... I need a daily dose of of 5,000 IU of D3 in order to maintain a barely adequate level. (Testing is recommended as individual reponse varies widely.) In light of yesterday's test results, I'm doubling D3 and upping K2.
We can only guess at the Vit D levels right up in the Nordic lands ! - and Melbourne enjoys a similar sheltering from the Sun...

Can"t comment on the allegation Sweden is 'thinning the herd', but I'll float it on that (other) blog. Regardless, it's becoming apparant that ICU ventilation can damage more... as it might save.

ABC's Foreign Correspondent looked at Sweden a couple of weeks ago. Migrant and refugee groups were wildly over-represented in the death toll, no explanation given, but as one said it's hard to isolate in a two-bedroom flat - the advice given by the Swedish government presumed that everyone had their own bedroom at home.

The other thing is that Sweden's actual death toll is probably a lot higher than the official one - ABC interviewed the manager of a nursing home and she said that they'd had a few deaths but didn't know if they were due to COVID-19 because they were never tested post-mortem.

The suggestion that they withheld ICU support from older people came from here:

What was the impact of Sweden’s soft approach to lockdown?

"... ABC interviewed the manager of a nursing home and she said that they'd had a few deaths but didn't know if they were due to COVID-19 because they were never tested post-mortem...."

Or, the death toll is lower.... Similar thing going on in the UK..

"Did the patient die OF covid, or WITH it ? "

Originally Posted by superquag

Then another elephant in the room. [...snip...] - Sub-optimal immune system perhaps, due in no small part to chronic Vit. D deficiency, Dietary, low sun, (high latitude) on top of being Winter up there...

Wait! What? Where is this other 'winter' happening? Up there? Now?

You are on the other side of the continent - how the **** would you know what's going on here?

Well just reading this thread gives us a good idea what's going on there , that is beside the ABC , & all the Commercial TV stations , Newspapers , internet , phone , & the list goes on .

I have family who live in Melbourne and they tell me it is a joke with the lack of Social Distancing that you subjected too the moment you step outside your front gate , to be fair it is not much better here at times .

What put WA in good stead was that the State was segmented into its 13 Regions , and travel within WA was restricted with road blocks on all access points to each region , i don't think any other State did anything similar ,it was a bloody pain but in the end was very successful in controlling the spread of the Virus to the point that we have the whole state open and the economy is kicking along well .

From this weekend further hard border closers to interstate travelers will be implemented , with the advice to any WA people in the east on holidays etc to return home now . .

Originally Posted by Eevo

so its ok if cops shoot citizens?

#all lives matter

And they are trained to shoot to kill which seems a little harsh but that's what they are taught to do...ie shoot for the main body mass which usually causes major trauma esp with soft point bullets.

Use a taser or capsicum spray or even a batton first? Naturally if you have a gun you'd probably prefer that choice wouldn't you? And now forces have or are getting military weapons😞

But it's a **** job dealing with morons every day😐

Originally Posted by superquag

Despite being in sunny WA, and never using sunscreen.... I need a daily dose of of 5,000 IU of D3 in order to maintain a barely adequate level. (Testing is recommended as individual reponse varies widely.) In light of yesterday's test results, I'm doubling D3 and upping K2.

You're more than welcome to pop over here, SQ, and absorb some of our rays as Queensland's UV Index is always above 3.
Now, I'm not trying to put you off or anything but it will probably involve a lot of exercise such as swimming, snorkelling, fishing, walking along beaches, camping on beaches, sunbaking, assisting young backpackers in distress and so on.
P.M. me with your flight details and we'll organise an AULRO reception at the airport along with a dialysis machine, as you'll have to sell a kidney to pay the air fares.

Steve