Thread: Corona Virus

Originally Posted by 1950landy

Yep, the test is only as good as the moment you are tested . You can walk out & bump into someone who is infected.

Now for some more Bad News.... Seems the problem - again - is not 100% down to a dodgy test, but using it for something the MAKER of it did NOT intend. - Like the PCR (manufacturing process. awarded Nobel Prize) used as a Front Line Diagnostic, in the absence of symptoms. prior and usually, post-test.

Lateral - Flow is also being stretched, as in this BMJ article:- Covid-19: Tests on students are highly inaccurate, early findings show | The BMJ Same thing, not what the manufacturer intended, but abusing the test... makes it useful for those with a specific agenda....

Originally Posted by trout1105

Only after the herd has been thinned down considerably

thats how pandemics work yes

Originally Posted by Eevo

so US is so well connected, and the disease spread undetected for months due to being novel, theUS never had a chance.
on the pluse side, they will reach herd immunity first.

The US had plenty of chances. But they threw them away. They dismantled their pandemic response team last year, after throwing in the wastebasket the pandemic response plan set up by G W Bush and updated by Obama. Their President told them repeatedly that it was nothing to worry about despite his knowing and understanding that it was definitely something to get very worried about.

And most importantly, a large part of the USA has been deliberately trying to destroy confidence in science for at least the last forty years as part of an attempt to undo the Confederate loss in 1865 and to re-establish white supremacy.

The US is no better connected than, for example, Australia; the disease spread undetected because too many people did not believe it was real, because their testing capability was very poor due to a screw-up by the defunded CDC pandemic team, and because of deliberate misinformation and actual sabotage of efforts by the President.

The US is nowhere near herd immunity. They have had little more than 5% of the population infected (probably a bit higher as many cases have been missed) - herd immunity by disease transmission with this disease will require something like 80+% to have been infected. That implies, at a death rate of 1%, over 3 million deaths. And the death rate in the US is almost certainly at least double that. So far they have had less than half a million deaths, and it is unlikely that a US that has had three million deaths from this disease will be recognisable as the country it was a year ago. No, herd immunity, if ever achieved by disease spread with covid19 is not a plus. Long before then most people will be so frightened of contact that spread will drop to a level so low that herd immunity will never be reached, and the disease will become endemic. And the economy will be utterly devastated, and the country an international pariah long before that.

And I note in this morning's news that Russia has admitted that its previously published figures have way understated the pandemic there.

While the deaths from this disease in the USA may still be lower than the Spanish flu, you need to remember that in 1917-20 the normal death rate was a lot higher than it was in 2019, so that today the same loss of life has a far greater impact.

Originally Posted by JDNSW

The US is no better connected than, for example, Australia; the disease spread undetected because too many people did not believe it was real, because their testing capability was very poor due to a screw-up by the defunded CDC pandemic team, and because of deliberate misinformation and actual sabotage of efforts by the President.

The US is nowhere near herd immunity. They have had little more than 5% of the population infected (probably a bit higher as many cases have been missed) -.

the US is much more connected than aust. by connected i mean movement of people. both by volume and percentage.
the virus was undetected due to china withholding information. thousands were infected in the US before covid was announced and identified. all the president stuff came later. after it was too late, so its irrelevant.

the US is much close to herd immunity than aust. will take another 2-3 years to get to 80%. we'll see the number of infections ramp up over the next 18 month. thats not a failure of the health system or the people, thats just the maths involved with infectious disease.

this is how pandemics works. every pandemic in history, from the spanish flu to the black death to the plague of justinian has ended with herd immunity (or it becomes endemic, which is a possibility). not from lockdown, not from isolation, not from social distancing. we like to think that us humans are the masters of our destiny but we're about to get a rude wakeup call that we cant control things like pandemics. yes our science and medicine and knowledge is better than 100 years ago, but I'm doubting its good enough. a lot of people are placing a lot of faith in a vaccine. never has a vaccine ended a pandemic. after 25 years we still dont have an effective vaccine for hiv, influenza, rhinovirus. "but what about smallpox?" i hear you you cry. yes we eradicated it, after 200 years. buckle up kids, covid is here to stay.

ive not checked the stats on every country however spain might reach herd immunity before the US. less number of infected, but less population too.

edit: try ​Luxembourg. they are at 10% infected.

Is there such a thing as herd immunity with Covid? We dont know yet as we do not even no for sure how long someone stays immune after being exposed to Covid - research tends to show it is shorter than longer but it seems permanent immunity is not likely solely on the basis of catching Covid.

That is why mass vaccinations over a relatively short period of time is the only way to proceed.

Garry

Originally Posted by 101RRS

Is there such a thing as herd immunity with Covid? We dont know yet as we do not even no for sure how long someone stays immune after being exposed to Covid - research tends to show it is shorter than longer but it seems permanent immunity is not likely solely on the basis of catching Covid.

That is why mass vaccinations over a relatively short period of time is the only way to proceed.

Garry

well if your first sentence is true, then your second sentence doesnt make sense as it would mean a vaccine wouldn't provide immunity long term either.

looking at the positive, the uk vaccine rollout is looking good. 600,000 vaccinated in 3 weeks.

Originally Posted by Eevo

then your second sentence doesnt make sense as it would mean a vaccine wouldn't provide immunity long term either.

We still don't know for sure because there has not been the time to confirm all this is the rush to at least a vaccine out there.