Thread: Corona Virus

Originally Posted by JDNSW

The basic problem we have at the moment is that the Australia is short on supplies of preferred vaccines and find ourselves faced with a new variant that is much more infectious (as could have been, and was, forecast to happen with evolution by natural selection in a world with the pandemic running virtually uncontrolled in some countries). While, despite the press, the hotel quarantine system has has very few infection escapes*, especially with the delta variant, it only needs one escape. For example, the current outbreak in NSW is spreading from a single driver, and in Victoria, genomic testing has now shown their major outbreak came from a single escape.

*The delta variant has an R0 of around six. This simply means that on average, each infection case infects six others. A minute or so with a calculator will show how rapidly this can grow without social distancing, restrictions on movement, testing and tracing.

Yes I found that the consensus is for Delta it's between 5.5 and 6.0. Slight variations depending on who does the data, I guess. Either way, we can see what happens from one case in NSW ATM. I remember when the headlines screamed, " WA shuts the State down for one case. " from the usual suspects. And now we have a live example of why. It's up to the people now. However it must be asked why retail stores like IKEA etc have been allowed to remain open. Data processed from O/S has come to the conclusion a short sharp complete lockdown for one or two weeks is less damaging for the economy than a longer , rolling lock down lite.

Originally Posted by Arapiles

Just noting that Melbourne is the only place in the world that has suppressed Delta ....

Victoria is the only place in the world where a Delta strain of COVID has been suppressed.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/mission-misfire-why-the-uniform-approach-to-the-pandemic-is-wrong-20210709-p588b0.html

Where does it say that Victoria is the only place to suppress the Delta? I cannot find it in that article?

With figures of 5 out of seven people contracting covid from family members where is the evidence that people are out spreading COVID at shopping centres? There is a lot of noise being made about not being locked down hard enough but there is an expectation that infections will be worse today for exactly the same reasons that they have been bad for the last couple of days as more family members test positive.
There is a fiction that people who are isolating at home will use separate bathrooms and remain in their rooms. That is incredibly unlikely in households that don't have those facilities in lower socio-economic areas (it wouldnt work in our house either) and with the delta strain it is almost certain that the entire household will catch it.
Along with the close family and community relationships in southern Sydney it will be at least a week before we will see an improvement in infection numbers but it will be interesting to watch the numbers of people who are not within a single household drop (if they continue to publish those numbers)

Regards,
Tote

Why economists continue to back lock downs. From the conversation.

1. John QuigginProfessor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland
   
2. Richard HoldenProfessor of Economics, UNSW

Disclosure statement

Richard Holden is President-elect of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia.
John Quiggin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.



Why most economists continue to back lockdowns (theconversation.com)

Qld is leaving its border controls unchanged, despite Victoria shutting its border to NSW and the ACT, but is closely monitoring the situation in regional NSW.
NSW has just announced 112 cases to 8pm last night.

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

Qld is leaving its border controls unchanged, despite Victoria shutting its border to NSW and the ACT, but is closely monitoring the situation in regional NSW.
NSW has just announced 112 cases to 8pm last night.

Anna suggested all Qlders in regional NSW should come home. Could be an indication of what's ahead.

Originally Posted by bob10

Anna suggested all Qlders in regional NSW should come home. Could be an indication of what's ahead.

I think I’ll pull the pin……

I reckon Anna is holding back closing the border until all NRL teams are in Queensland, that way she has control of the game again. I believe all teams will be in QLD by Wednesday.

Also with state of origin on Wednesday she maybe leaving the border open for regional NSW supporters.

I picked the border would shut on Thursday or Friday this week…..I was due to fly back Thursday night.

Originally Posted by W&KO

I think I’ll pull the pin……

I reckon Anna is holding back closing the border until all NRL teams are in Queensland, that way she has control of the game again. I believe all teams will be in QLD by Wednesday.

Also with state of origin on Wednesday she maybe leaving the border open for regional NSW supporters.

I picked the border would shut on Thursday or Friday this week…..I was due to fly back Thursday night.

Control the game? what rot. The NRL controls the game. And it is not costing the Qld government one cent to bring the teams here. This is the only way to save the competition, and V'landys is an astute operator. But you can guarantee the moment the virus moves to regional NSW, the border will be shut.