Thread: Corona Virus

Originally Posted by SpudHeadTed

Yes exactly, and so forgive me but you seem to have contradicted yourself - if no vaccine is 100% effective - how, as you also say above, is 83% of population being vaccinated going to prevent covid spread?

It won’t stop it spreading - the virus will become endemic is the community - it’s about it not killing as many people and overwhelming the health system. Hopefully once most are vaccinated then the background level of serious illness will be low enough to tolerate and we’ll stop counting the infections as they rise the same as we don’t count overall flu infections - just the ones that kill people or make them seriously ill.

Originally Posted by 101RRS

I see he has now banned people from the east from entering WA who are not vaccinated, yet WA has the lowest vaccination rate in the country

I suppose that's one way of getting the vaccination numbers up.

Originally Posted by Homestar

It won’t stop it spreading - the virus will become endemic is the community - it’s about it not killing as many people and overwhelming the health system. Hopefully once most are vaccinated then the background level of serious illness will be low enough to tolerate and we’ll stop counting the infections as they rise the same as we don’t count overall flu infections - just the ones that kill people or make them seriously ill.

Yes that's all correct, but it's the percentage of vaccinate population before easing restrictions that is the big question and how long that will realistically take... the 70-80% of vaccine 'eligible' population is nowhere near high enough to achieve the above. Even if 80% of the entire population agree to being vaccinated, it wont necessarily be enough to reach so-called herd immunity (which isn't actually immunity, but resistance).

The following article is an interesting reality check re vaccination %, which can be extrapolated out across the whole country if restrictions are eased. The vaccine % ambition of 70-80% of those currently eligible is fanciful as a measure for safety.

We can't rely solely on arbitrary vaccination levels to end lockdowns. Here are 7 ways to fix Sydney's outbreak

Also, based on the Burnett institutes modelling (see attached), unless a super strict Stage 4 lockdown is implemented in NSW, there will be no covid zero in the foreseeable future - and even then it looks like wishful thinking with the virulence of the Delta strain.

I'm not trying to scare-monger, just seeing through the spin of 70-80% and thinking that NSW could easily be locked away from the rest of the country until the end of 2021 - given that every other state is virtually covid free. If NSW is not covid free and vaccinations dont reach 80% + of the entire population across Australia, no other state will open their borders to NSW.

In Qld, 7 new cases. Somewhat alarmingly, one is a 4 year old in hotel quarantine from Cambodia, and one is a 1 year old sibling of a child in home quarantine. The rest are Adults in home quarantine. The number of people in home quarantine has dropped by about 7,000 , to just over 8,000. Qld is taking registrations for vaccinations from people 18 and over who may be working with children in after school care. All we need now is the vaccines. [ Pfizer]

I doubt there will be COVID zero in Victoria either, Queensland might make it this time but the act outbreak shows how quickly it can go from a single infection

Originally Posted by Homestar

It won’t stop it spreading - the virus will become endemic is the community - it’s about it not killing as many people and overwhelming the health system. Hopefully once most are vaccinated then the background level of serious illness will be low enough to tolerate and we’ll stop counting the infections as they rise the same as we don’t count overall flu infections - just the ones that kill people or make them seriously ill.

I am kinda hoping that the push/rush to create our current vaccines will be the viable platform for further vaccine development and will lead to a one-shot type of vaccine for this - eventually. We are only really applying Gen 1 vaccines at present. Who knows where this mRNA thing will go. I am thinking the research will continue and with any luck, we might see a product that'll lead to a more complete protection much like some of the other vaccines for other diseases.

That'd be nice...

Originally Posted by Tote

I doubt there will be COVID zero in Victoria either, Queensland might make it this time but the act outbreak shows how quickly it can go from a single infection

Covid zero with delta is a forlorn wish, unfortunately. Until we have everyone vaccinated, [ at least 90%, it seems now, according to overseas trends] Australia will be jumping on new infections and isolating in quarantine for a while to come. Short sharp lockdowns will be the norm until that number is reached. I notice the infected Sydney father of two who caused 300,000 people in Byron Bay to lock down , was following NSW restriction rules to look for property .The exemption was allowed " to inspect a potential new place of residence". Another loophole to be closed.

Did they close it? No. The rule now states you can visit your second property in the regions from a locked down LGA to feed your animals, and check your property.

The delta variant may have to lead to a variation of the Doherty plan. 466 cases in Sydney overnight. 16 new cases in the Hunter, 26 in Western NSW. Armidale to lock down for 7 more days.

We're only in Phase A of our COVID-19 exit strategy, but already cracks are emerging (msn.com)