Thread: Covid Mk ll

I just got THE call at 22:02. I could kiss a guy in Canberra right now I know they stop at 22:00

Not often I get help. This on is a ripper. I can say yes to a lot more people now

Originally Posted by SBD4

I believe what you are seeing is governments facing the reality of the situation and being forced to consider the unthinkable.

i'm not having a go at you but why is living with the virus unthinkable? the rest of the world saw the reality of the situation, and the futility of lockdowns. for most countries covid zero was unthinkable. the medicine was worse than the cure. trying to prevent deaths at the expense of the living has consequences too. viruses are a part of life. our dna is full of them. but this one absolutely must be defeated! i dont get it. people on this forum taking about more contact tracing and harder lockdowns etc. the rest of the world gave up on that long ago.

Originally Posted by Eevo

i'm not having a go at you but why is living with the virus unthinkable? the rest of the world saw the reality of the situation, and the futility of lockdowns. for most countries covid zero was unthinkable. the medicine was worse than the cure. trying to prevent deaths at the expense of the living has consequences too. viruses are a part of life. our dna is full of them. but this one absolutely must be defeated! i dont get it. people on this forum taking about more contact tracing and harder lockdowns etc. the rest of the world gave up on that long ago.

Yes we gotta start living with the virus….it’s a given

talking to my nephew again last night who lives abroad……….he said it’s absolute laughable what happening here. While is is grateful he has more freedom he is not getting frustrated with not being able to pop home during the off season to catch up with family.

I’m in Queensland and have a job that travels interstate every other week……whilst Im getting most of my job done remotely I’m now being affected by the stupid approach to the removal of the border bubble. I now have to travel every second week to a regional site on the border to oversee the operation as the majority of employees live in NSW, the role is not what I’m employees to do, near impossible to do two jobs at once.

Our application to be approved an essential business/service was rejected. The dumb arse authorities gave us a sniff during the process, all employees brought forward their first jab (some having to accept AZ over their preferred), started getting 2 covid tests per week. Ain’t no fun getting covid tests for no reason at all.

none of this would have been a drama if ample supplies of vaccine, adequate infrastructure and a government that set out to look after the populace instead of the big business rorts now coming to the surface and allowing murdoch and sky news to play devisive politics because it had some advantage to them

the messaging being pushed by those politicking it for their own gain is what needs to change here

all along the message from those trying for covid 0 has been to keep it there as long as possible because the infrastructure available couldn't cope, which is exactly what is now happening in nsw and vic if you listen to the people on the front line and not the politicians

Originally Posted by Eevo

i'm not having a go at you but why is living with the virus unthinkable? the rest of the world saw the reality of the situation, and the futility of lockdowns. for most countries covid zero was unthinkable. the medicine was worse than the cure. trying to prevent deaths at the expense of the living has consequences too. viruses are a part of life. our dna is full of them. but this one absolutely must be defeated! i dont get it. people on this forum taking about more contact tracing and harder lockdowns etc. the rest of the world gave up on that long ago.

"The rest of the world"? You mean like NZ?, or Malta? Or China?

Or perhaps you mean the USA which has over half a million dead and working towards a million, with hospital systems in several states on the brink of collapse?

Yes, humanity has lived with epidemic infectious diseases forever - except, for most advanced countries, including Australia, for the last hundred years, during which most of the diseases that our ancestors "lived with" were mostly brought under control. These include plague, typhoid, yellow fever, smallpox, measles, cholera, pertussis, polio, TB, and many others.

These have been brought under control by a combination of public health measures (safe water and food, sewers, waste disposal etc), vaccination, and social restrictions, and yes, including quarantine and vaccination passports. While smallpox is the only one to have been eliminated, all of the ones mentioned and others have been effectively eliminated from Australia. You have lived in this world, with an overall death rate from infectious diseases way below your grandfather's time. Do you want to go back there?

Some diseases have resisted elimination, even within the country, the obvious one being influenza, because of its rapid mutation and resulting ineffective vaccines. With this disease with five times the infectivity and ten times the case fatality rate, do you really want to give up to it?

When we manage to get most of the population vaccinated, and learn to live with some restrictions, we will be able to "live with it", in the same way that our ancestors learnt, for example, to live with not throwing their rubbish into the street and paying the costs for providing safe water, and learnt to wear seat belts etc.

Originally Posted by windsock

Aug 17 - one case Lock down level 4 nationwide
Aug 18 - 10 cases
Aug 19 - 11 ...
Aug 20 - 11
Aug 21 - 21
Aug 22 - 21
Aug 23 - 35
Aug 24 - 41
Aug 25 - 62
Aug 26 - 68
Aug 27 - 70
Aug 28 - 82
Aug 29 - 83
Aug 30 - 53
Aug 31 - 49
Sept 1 - 75 Lock down level 3 for NZ from Auckland South
Sept 2 - 49

Numbers from Latest updates | Unite against COVID-19

I hope it continues the downward trend here. R0 value has been less than 1 the last three days. Seeing Victoria giving up scared the **** out of me to be honest. I thought if any Aussie state can do it, Victoria could beat it back. Seeing the turn-around made me reassess our personal preparedness and vulnerabilities here for a similar situation in NZ if Delta starts beating our systems. I know we will eventually have to live with it once our vaccine rate is sufficient here but the suddenness of the situation turning in Victoria was sadly eye-opening.

Our vaccine rates here are percentage of eligible population: First dose - 56% and second dose is 29%. A few weeks back the govt announced the duration between doses here would be changed from three weeks to six weeks in order to get the numbers of first doses increased. We only use Pfizer here.

Unlike the Aust. system, our decision makers have not nominated a set percentage to open but rather have stated it depends on the situation at the time.

Here in Melbourne, also watching to see if NZ can beat Delta. If any country can it will be you guys.

I reached out to Chris Billington at Melbourne University who has been publishing the effective rate of reproduction numbers for NSW, VIC and ACT to see if there was modelling for NZ.

Well today he has added the NZ plots.



https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html

What the plot is telling us is the lockdown measures are working to drive the rate of reproduction back below 1, but there is enough uncertainty in the data that it could go in one of three directions.

The underlying trend is looking good. Another week will tell us a lot.

Originally Posted by Eevo

i'm not having a go at you but why is living with the virus unthinkable? the rest of the world saw the reality of the situation, and the futility of lockdowns. for most countries covid zero was unthinkable. the medicine was worse than the cure. trying to prevent deaths at the expense of the living has consequences too. viruses are a part of life. our dna is full of them. but this one absolutely must be defeated! i dont get it. people on this forum taking about more contact tracing and harder lockdowns etc. the rest of the world gave up on that long ago.

All good, I don't take it that way.

I meant that they, the politicians, are having to consider the path that is unpalatable to the masses and that many perhaps thought they would never have to follow.

I am pro opening up with appropriate measures to ensure it is done as safely and responsibly as possible. You'd probably pick that up in my earlier posts. I don't think we should just let it go as our health systems will not keep up but we need to stop these extensive lockdowns and we need to open up our boarders. While the country can not sustain the current state of affairs, equally, it can not sustain just opening up. There is a social and economic cost to both extremes.

We need some patience now to see the vaccination process through so it can do its job. NSW and VIC need to suck it up through this next 2 months to see if they can get into a better position while WA and QLD get their skates on to catch up with vax levels. With that in place perhaps Australia can show that opening up doesn't have to equate to a crushed health system with people dying unnecessarily requiring billions more in public money to enable it to cope.

Originally Posted by DiscoDB

Another week will tell us a lot.

Thanks for the graph request. Chris does some fine work. I like a good graph. I thought about downloading his algorithm but didn't.

Yes. A lot of hard work and sacrifice going on here. A lot of people here waiting on the daily 1pm pressers (live streamed here Latest breaking news NZ | Stuff.co.nz | New Zealand). That trend and associated uncertainty is currently the worry. The uncertainty could easily become certainty due to the actions of a few. We have had a few possible leakages the last few days. An obnoxious MIQ absconder, A woman in full rage leaving her room at MIQ over pizza quality (several staff exposed now in isolation), students flying out of Auckland to their campuses unchallenged etc. Much still can go wrong. I hope our luck holds in proportion to the effort of the many despite the actions of the few.

Delta doesn't appear to need a second chance as it is able to take the first opportunity...