Thread: Covid Mk ll

Originally Posted by NavyDiver

some pharmacists are reporting shortages and people are overdosing on forms of the drug meant for horses."

I often advocate for the removal of warning labels and let nature sort it out "Do not use chainsaw to trim toenails while drunk". This just seems like a concentrated form of natural selection.

On a brighter note, I got my second Pfizer this morning (5 weeks from 1st) and while the first was but a mere tickle, the second feels "slightly heavier" although my wife assures me she didn't wallop my left arm before I got out of bed.

Now I wait until things are such that I can vaccinate the 7 year old safely.

Originally Posted by Tote

So when might be a good time for the sealed states to open up - 80% vaccinated, 90%, at some point there must be an opening of borders or we will see the scenario where the rest of the country is travelling internationally and fully open for business and state borders are still closed. I'm not sure that the population of those states would be so keen for isolation at that point in time.

Regards,
Tote

When the effective R value is well below 1 will be the key to that answer. I am sure it is no coincidence that the modelling shows this happening when 80%+ are vaccinated.

Each time the R values drops below 1 and is trending downwards is when the past lockdowns open up again. WA would then need to see daily cases in NSW and VIC back to zero before it starts to reopen its borders.

Of course the models are all based on assumptions which can change as new issues emerge. Another more contagious variant would be a total show stopper.

Originally Posted by 101RRS;[URL="tel:3106291"

3106291[/URL]]Try reading the doherty report (or at least the summaries) and what they have said since and what the National Cabinet have agreed rather than carrying on like you have been.

Maybe go and do a few maths courses to understand what the decisions actually mean. No one is saying anything about lifting some restrictions with only 56% vaccinated. It starts with 70% of eligible population over the age of 16. Despite agreements made in National Cabinets some State/Territory leaders have indicated that in addition to the National number they may or may not apply their own higher standard which is their call.

70% of eligible population = 56% of whole population.

Doherty report is based on very low infection rates, not 1000’s per day. National cabinet agreed based on low infection rates.

You can rant all you want in support of the spin, but most of us see straight through it.

We need 80% of entire population vaccinated before easing restrictions. At Scomo’s rate, hello 2022.

Originally Posted by SpudHeadTed

70% of eligible population = 56% of whole population.

Doherty report is based on very low infection rates, not 1000’s per day. National cabinet agreed based on low infection rates.

You obviously missed the recent memo from the Doherty Institute.

Originally Posted by Eevo

something i found interesting, and thank to discomick for the idea
the effective reproduction number for the nsw outbreak is 1.34
the effective reproduction number for the vic outbreak is 1.36

those numbers are close enough to being the same. so the virus is spreading at the same rate.
this tells me that the effectiveness/ineffectiveness of the lockdown is the same in both states.

You mean other than the complete disparity in numbers of new infections?

Originally Posted by SpudHeadTed

So no Covid in Qld, SA, NT, WA, TAS, but everyone should follow Gladys' lead and then we should open the whole country up at effectively 56% vaccinated?

Brilliant! Then what will happen? ….not freedom. Mayhem…
Michael Pascoe: What happens next isn’t ‘freedom’ – it’s triage

Says it all really:

"It is foolish to expect trust after pretending the situation was under control, that numbers would come down, then could come down, and now the full backflip with smiley face to suggest we are achieving what we’ve always wanted: Living with COVID, an example to the rest of Australia."

Originally Posted by Tote

So when might be a good time for the sealed states to open up - 80% vaccinated, 90%, at some point there must be an opening of borders or we will see the scenario where the rest of the country is travelling internationally and fully open for business and state borders are still closed. I'm not sure that the population of those states would be so keen for isolation at that point in time.

Regards,
Tote

if your after zero cases, then you/they will never open up. as even at 100% vaccinated, it still spreads, and we'll continually be importing cases into australia.
but your right, the population wont accept that.

Originally Posted by Arapiles

You mean other than the complete disparity in numbers of new infections?

the outbreaks started at different times, so its correct to expect disparity in daily cases.