Thread: Covid Mk ll

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

The Doherty report recommendations about easing restrictions at 70% and 80% eligible were based on 30 cases daily, not over a thousand,

Yes quite correct but they also updated their recommendations that these remained unchanged even with around 1,000 daily cases. The CEO briefed National Cabinet on that at last weeks meeting and all Premiers agreed that the way ahead remains unchanged eg the Phases of the way ahead remains unchanged.

What this means is when 70% and then 80% national coverage is reached those states that are actually at a higher vaccination level can start to lift restrictions but those that are at a lower lever can still maintain their restrictions until vaccination levels reach agreed levels. This means some States will be open to participate in processes such as international travel in some restricted capacity where those below the vaccination levels cannot.

I certainly hope that those States and Territories with the required vaccination rates place restrictions on those States that are lagging behind in their vaccination rates to prevent their citizens taking advantage of lifted restrictions in the higher vaccinated States and Territories.

Are some people deliberately confusing "easing restrictions" with "opening up" or "letting it rip"?
I don't know if any politician has said exactly what easing of restrictions will take place.
Maybe it will just mean that instead of being restricted to one hour's exercise within 5km of your home, you will be allowed to exercise for 70 minutes within 6km of your home. Of course that extra 10 minutes would only be available to those who are fully vaccinated.

regardless of actual percentage goals, we keep vaccinating until the number of cases starts to go down (and continues downwards). only then will you know that the threshold has been reached (compared to a theoretical number)
and after that, you keep on giving vaccinations to the people who want them, and you can slowly start opening up. balancing the vaccine rollout and declining new cases with opening up at an appropriate level.

A good strategy Eevo but it probably means that states that are trailing will miss out on things like overseas travel as it's going to be hard to keep the genie in the bottle if one state has 80% double doses and the public are saying where is my passport. Having said that there may not be anything more than a few weeks between the states once more vaccines are available anyway.
I note that Scotty from marketing has been doing the garage sale circuit and found an extra half million doses that are due to expire. Good news!

Regards,
Tote

Originally Posted by Tote

I note that Scotty from marketing has been doing the garage sale circuit and found an extra half million doses that are due to expire. Good news!

it is good news.
i cant believe im saying this about a politician, but it sounds like he's listened to the criticism about the slow rollout/supply limitations and is doing whatever he can do increase supply and fix the issues. only wish our state premiere would do the same thing with hospital ramping.

Originally Posted by Eevo

the outbreaks started at different times, so its correct to expect disparity in daily cases.

NSW is projected to be heading for 3000+ cases a day - Vic is projected to reach a fraction of that, and I'd doubt that we'd even get to that figure given current trends. NSW is currently running at just under double the highest number of cases per day we had in Lockdown 2.0 last year, and that was our peak and dropped quickly from there - NSW is near 1300 per day and trending upwards still.

In any case the issue isn't the length of time the outbreak has been running, it's that the more cases you have that are out spreading in the community undetected and not isolating, the higher the resulting numbers will be. Vic has too many mystery cases but they're still a fraction of what's out there in NSW. And Vic appears to be doing comparatively more testing, too - 50,000 a day with a daily range between 40,000 and 51,000. NSW has 15 times as many daily cases today but only 2.5 times more testing.

It wasn't that long ago - in the old thread - that I suggested that NSW would exceed Vic's record given the logarithmic trend, and others pointed to it being over 1000 by the end of September - unfortunately NSW has wildly exceeded that estimate.

Originally Posted by Arapiles

NSW is projected to be heading for 3000+ cases a day - Vic is projected to reach a fraction of that,

you and I are talking about two different things.
new cases per day is not the same as reproduction rate
the reproduction rate is (more or less) how much the new cases per day is increasing by.

im talking about reproduction rate
you're talking about new cases.

Originally Posted by Eevo

it is good news.
i cant believe im saying this about a politician, but it sounds like he's listened to the criticism about the slow rollout/supply limitations and is doing whatever he can do increase supply and fix the plunging polls. only wish our state premiere would do the same thing with hospital ramping.

Fixed.