Originally Posted by JDNSW
) generally they are pretty much spot on, but during major fire activity then theres a tendency to be very conservative with the forecasts, and we get wind/temp predictions that are probably much closer to the worse case and not the most likely case.
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I don't know if there is anything in it, but my father always reckoned that forecasts improved dramatically in the early 1940s with the demands of military aviation in the war - and then dropped to almost pre-war levels after 1945 as observers and forecasters' working hours (and probably motivation) dropped back to peacetime levels. And never regained the accuracy they had during the war.
One of the interesting features we have on the ABC local radio every Friday morning is an interview with the man responsible for forecasting weather for the Siding Spring Observatory. He weighs up the various available forecasts, including ones not available to the public, such as the firefighting ones, and gives his estimate of the most likely outcome. But he does not pretend to any accuracy past about two days.
John
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