Thread: Corona Virus

Originally Posted by ChookD2

Yes, agree but we can only include the figures that we have available. I may be sitting here typing this and be asymptomatic (I hope not) and never know, therefore, never RECORDED and so cannot be included in any statistical information. Unless the entire gobal population is tested then the numbers will always be skewed. I'm sure there is some whizkid/professor/statistics nut out there crunching away to determine the approx number that are asymptomatic but this is still only a guesstimation.

But we (I) am not talking "death rate versus recovery rate", what has been discussed is the number of deaths as a percentage of those cases that have had an outcome, resolution, final decision, call it what you like.

Lets say everyone on the planet is going to come in contact with this, ~7.5 billion.
Of those 5 billion are tested.
Of those 3 billion are positive.
Of those 60 million (that's the conservative 2%) die.
So that left 2.5 billion out of the testing.
If 60% of the tests were positive that would leave 1.5 billion out of the equation.
Therefore the true percentage would be 1.33% of 4.5 billion.

As you can see it is impossible to calculate the TRUE number if the true number of infections is not known. What is known is the number of recovered and the number of deceased. It is only from the KNOWN firgures we can calculate correctly. How you calculate that i.e. deaths per infection or deaths per outcome, is up to you.

I think Inc is on the right track though, as those infected are just that, until they have that infection resolved (one way or the other) then they should not be part of the calculation. Yes it looks much better but I don't think is a proper calculation. And to be honest, I hope they keep using that calculation in the media because if many saw the correct figures there would be scenes from the Walkin Dead.

We will never know the true toll this had on China, those figures will be known only to the highest in "the Party" and never divulged to the world. China has mislead the world on this from the start.

Thanks for that mate.

On another related note the true number of recoveries (ie as an outcome) is underreported. The attached stat' analysis on the ABC website is helpful.

Cheers

Coronavirus data reveals how COVID-19 is spreading in Australia - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Originally Posted by Saitch

To be honest, I can't see what would change in the world if I carked it tomorrow. Mind you, I've never been that important!

Gees you cant go yet!!!!































its your shout...