Thread: Corona Virus

Originally Posted by Saitch

If you get desperate, Bob, I can always float a few bottles down the Nth Pine.

Buckley's chance of them getting past those pirates at Aspley.

Originally Posted by ozscott

I have added the uppercase word to your quote to show how I understand the data.

And because so many have it and have not been recorded as having it (That is likely based on how it spreads and how little of the population has been tested) and because the percentages of those who had an outcome and died were only those who tested as positive, the death rate versus recovery rate is misleading. The only figure that counts is the percentage who died of all of those with the disease. Otherwise the numbers are skewed.

Cheers

Yes, agree but we can only include the figures that we have available. I may be sitting here typing this and be asymptomatic (I hope not) and never know, therefore, never RECORDED and so cannot be included in any statistical information. Unless the entire gobal population is tested then the numbers will always be skewed. I'm sure there is some whizkid/professor/statistics nut out there crunching away to determine the approx number that are asymptomatic but this is still only a guesstimation.

But we (I) am not talking "death rate versus recovery rate", what has been discussed is the number of deaths as a percentage of those cases that have had an outcome, resolution, final decision, call it what you like.

Lets say everyone on the planet is going to come in contact with this, ~7.5 billion.
Of those 5 billion are tested.
Of those 3 billion are positive.
Of those 60 million (that's the conservative 2%) die.
So that left 2.5 billion out of the testing.
If 60% of the tests were positive that would leave 1.5 billion out of the equation.
Therefore the true percentage would be 1.33% of 4.5 billion.

As you can see it is impossible to calculate the TRUE number if the true number of infections is not known. What is known is the number of recovered and the number of deceased. It is only from the KNOWN firgures we can calculate correctly. How you calculate that i.e. deaths per infection or deaths per outcome, is up to you.

I think Inc is on the right track though, as those infected are just that, until they have that infection resolved (one way or the other) then they should not be part of the calculation. Yes it looks much better but I don't think is a proper calculation. And to be honest, I hope they keep using that calculation in the media because if many saw the correct figures there would be scenes from the Walkin Dead.

We will never know the true toll this had on China, those figures will be known only to the highest in "the Party" and never divulged to the world. China has mislead the world on this from the start.